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PBS NewsHour (Nov to Dec 2017), Nov 8, 2017 - Election 2017 showed Democrats are fired up to vote

Nov 8, 2017 - Election 2017 showed Democrats are fired up to vote

Nov 8, 2017 - Election 2017 showed Democrats are fired up to vote.

Judy Woodruff:

And now that we have heard from both political parties, from the White House and from the Democratic Party, let's get a close-up look at yesterday's results with Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report and Stu Rothenberg of Inside Elections. Welcome back to both of you.

Let's just get a sense from each one of you about, you know, your main takeaway from this election. Across the country, Amy — we know we have been spending a lot of time talking about Virginia.

But, across the country, Democrats say, yes, look at this, we're pretty pleased at what happened. Should they be?

Amy Walter:

No, they should be.

The enthusiasm factor is significant.

Their voters are fired up at every level, and they are ready to come out and vote. A lot is organically. I know, Tom Perez, the head of the DNC, talked about organizing. I think that's important. But I think these are voters who are just incredibly motivated to vote.

And that's the second piece, which is what they are motivated to vote for is not necessarily what's happening in their district or their state. They're motivated by Donald Trump. And, clearly, that was happening in Virginia, because it's not just the governor's race. When you look down at the state legislative races, Republican legislators who held on to their districts when Hillary Clinton carried their districts in 2016 or when the current governor carried their districts, they lost their seats.

So, it is clear that there is a big Trump effect going on right now.

It's a referendum on this president, and that's what we saw across the country. Judy Woodruff:

Stu, what would you say?

Stuart Rothenberg:

I agree.

The Democrats as a party are divided between the Bernie Sanders wing and Hillary Clinton wing, the pragmatists and ideologues.

But they have one thing in common. None of them like Donald Trump. And they wanted to turn out to vote, and they did.

So, it was — I agree.

It was enthusiasm and it was Donald Trump. That's what defined this election. Judy Woodruff:

Well, let's talked about who turned out and what they cared about, Amy. And I think we have some graphics here to look at that.

Part of it was women.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Judy Woodruff:

And looking at women based on their different education levels, women and race, what do we see?

Amy Walter:

Judy, do you remember, 2016, we talked a lot about white suburban women, especially white suburban women with college degrees?

And those were the folks that Hillary Clinton was hoping were going to turn out and support her in big numbers.

They didn't support her in big enough numbers to win in places like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. And even in Virginia, Ralph Northam outperformed where Hillary Clinton did with women, with married women, with college-educated women.

In essence, it was, this election in Virginia was really about the suburban — you can call it a sort of suburban women's revenge, that they came out at a level that was really pretty amazing for what it gave to Ralph Northam. Judy Woodruff:

How much of a surprise was that, Stu?

Stuart Rothenberg:

Well, there was still a significant gender gap.

We have had that for many, many decades.

And the Democrats continue to benefit.

But we're seeing the parties change in terms of education and the coalitions. And so what I think we saw last night is just the trend, an ongoing trend where the Republicans are moving more downscale and the Democrats are moving upscale, certainly in terms of education.

Amy Walter:

And that's what we saw too, that Ralph Northam didn't do any better in rural parts of Virginia — the Democrat — didn't do any better in rural parts of Virginia than Hillary Clinton had. It's just that he did a lot better in the bluer parts of the state, so in those suburban Washington… (CROSSTALK) Judy Woodruff:

They got their vote out.

Amy Walter:

Absolutely.

Judy Woodruff:

The Democrats got their vote out.

Stuart Rothenberg:

But the Republican vote held.

The Trump vote held among white evangelicals, rural voters and older working-class voters.

Amy Walter:

That's right. That's right.Judy Woodruff: It's just that, this time, the Democrats did turn out in numbers that Northam needed. Stuart Rothenberg:

That's right. Judy Woodruff:

Stu, what about when you look at the age of the folks who voted?

What does that tell us in Virginia?

Stuart Rothenberg:

Well, again, this is a split that has developed over a number of years.

And what you see is younger voters, 18-44, Northam with a huge advantage over Ed Gillespie.

These are voters who many of them, the youngest voters, 18 to 29, who didn't turn out a year ago in the presidential election. And there was some question, I think, whether they would turn out this time.

Northam isn't not exactly Mr. Charisma. There's the divide within the Democratic Party, as I mentioned, on pragmatism and ideology. But they did turn out in big numbers.

Voters 45 and older, the two oldest demographic cohorts, much more than closely divided between the two parties, but with an advantage to Gillespie. And they also, of course, gave an advantage to Donald Trump last year as well. Judy Woodruff:

And it made a difference, Amy.

I was just looking at this, because the younger, the under 45s were 37 percent of the electorate. They were only more than a third of the electorate, but they were a big enough margin to make a difference. Amy Walter:

That's right, and giving the margins that we didn't see Hillary Clinton get. In fact, this has been the argument that Democrats have been struggling with since 2008, which is, how do we get that coalition that turned out for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 to come and turn out when Barack Obama's not on the ballot? And in this case, they gave Ralph Northam, who Stu is exactly right, he's not the most charismatic, energizing kind of candidate, the kind of margins that they gave Barack Obama. Judy Woodruff:

We also saw some interesting — and we reported on this early, Stu — and that is transgender were elected.

You had one elected to a state delegate post in Virginia, other transgender candidates around the country.

Is that the younger voters coming out?

Stuart Rothenberg:

I think in part.

I think the advantage for the Democrats is that younger voters are more open-minded, more tolerant.

They value diversity and multiculturalism.

Guys 50-, 60-, 70-year-old white working-class voters are stuck in their ways.

Their ways may be fine, but they're not as receptive to change. And these young voters participating, it's a huge boost for the Democrats. And, if you think about it, these people are entering the political system now or they have involved in the last 10 years.

They are going to continue to vote over the next 20 to 30 years with their values.

Amy Walter:

Right.

Judy Woodruff:

Which raises the question everybody has, Amy, what does this mean, if anything, for next year for the big midterm elections?

Amy Walter:

Yes.

So, the enthusiasm factor is significant. We have talked about that a lot on this show, that people who are energized, especially people who are angry, turn out and vote, that you don't necessarily need to have perfect message — this is for Democrats. They don't need to have the perfect message. What they do have is Donald Trump. And he is a great motivator to get their voters to the polls. But the next question's going to come down to structure. Where Democrats did very well last night was in suburban Washington, places that Hillary Clinton had already carried.

Can they win in places that Hillary Clinton didn't win? Can they do better among those white working-class voters, rural voters? And as Stu pointed out, the margins there for the Democrat weren't any better than they were for Hillary Clinton. Judy Woodruff:

And you heard me ask Tom Perez to — what are you doing to appeal to these Trump voters, to these voters in red states and red places?

Stuart Rothenberg:

Well, in part, we have to see what develops.

They're a year away. These were relatively a handful of races in a handful of states.

Judy Woodruff:

Right.

Stuart Rothenberg:

And let's see what happens with the economy, with foreign policy, with the Mueller investigation. But Democrats have to feel upbeat and enthusiastic right now.

And we will see what mistakes or successes the president has. Judy Woodruff:

We will let them feel good for a day.

(LAUGHTER)

Judy Woodruff:

Stu Rothenberg, Amy Walter, thank you.

Amy Walter:

Thank you, Judy.

Stuart Rothenberg:

Thanks, Judy.


Nov 8, 2017 - Election 2017 showed Democrats are fired up to vote 8. November 2017 - Die Wahl 2017 hat gezeigt, dass die Demokraten für die Wahl begeistert sind Nov 8, 2017 - Οι εκλογές του 2017 έδειξαν ότι οι Δημοκρατικοί είναι έτοιμοι να ψηφίσουν Nov 8, 2017 - Las elecciones 2017 demostraron que los demócratas están encendidos para votar 8 novembre 2017 - Les élections de 2017 ont montré que les démocrates étaient prêts à voter 8 novembre 2017 - Le elezioni 2017 hanno mostrato che i democratici sono entusiasti di votare 2017年11月8日 - 2017年の選挙で民主党は投票に気合を入れた Listopad 8, 2017 - Wybory 2017 pokazały, że Demokraci są gotowi do głosowania 8 de novembro de 2017 - As eleições de 2017 mostraram que os democratas estão dispostos a votar 8 ноября 2017 - Выборы 2017 года показали, что демократы настроены на голосование 8 Kasım 2017 - 2017 Seçimleri Demokratların oy vermek için can attığını gösterdi 8 листопада 2017 - Вибори 2017 року показали, що демократи готові голосувати 2017 年 11 月 8 日 - 2017 年选举显示民主党人投票热情高涨 2017 年 11 月 8 日 - 2017 年選舉顯示民主黨投票熱情高漲

Nov 8, 2017 - Election 2017 showed Democrats are fired up to vote. 8 novembre 2017 - Les élections de 2017 ont montré que les démocrates étaient prêts à voter.

Judy Woodruff:

And now that we have heard from both political parties, from the White House and from the Democratic Party, let's get a close-up look at yesterday's results with Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report and Stu Rothenberg of Inside Elections. Et maintenant que nous avons entendu les deux partis politiques, de la Maison Blanche et du Parti démocrate, regardons de près les résultats d'hier avec Amy Walter de The Cook Political Report et Stu Rothenberg de Inside Elections. Welcome back to both of you.

Let's just get a sense from each one of you about, you know, your main takeaway from this election. Essayons d'avoir une idée de chacun d'entre vous sur, vous savez, ce que vous avez retenu de cette élection. Across the country, Amy — we know we have been spending a lot of time talking about Virginia.

But, across the country, Democrats say, yes, look at this, we're pretty pleased at what happened. Mais, à travers le pays, les démocrates disent, oui, regardez ça, nous sommes plutôt satisfaits de ce qui s'est passé. Should they be?

Amy Walter:

No, they should be.

The enthusiasm factor is significant.

Their voters are fired up at every level, and they are ready to come out and vote. Leurs électeurs sont excités à tous les niveaux et ils sont prêts à sortir et à voter. A lot is organically. I know, Tom Perez, the head of the DNC, talked about organizing. I think that's important. But I think these are voters who are just incredibly motivated to vote.

And that's the second piece, which is what they are motivated to vote for is not necessarily what's happening in their district or their state. Et c'est le deuxième élément, c'est que ce pour quoi ils sont motivés à voter n'est pas nécessairement ce qui se passe dans leur district ou leur état. They're motivated by Donald Trump. And, clearly, that was happening in Virginia, because it's not just the governor's race. Et, clairement, cela se passait en Virginie, car ce n'est pas seulement la course du gouverneur. When you look down at the state legislative races, Republican legislators who held on to their districts when Hillary Clinton carried their districts in 2016 or when the current governor carried their districts, they lost their seats. Lorsque vous regardez les courses législatives des États, les législateurs républicains qui ont conservé leurs circonscriptions lorsque Hillary Clinton a remporté leurs circonscriptions en 2016 ou lorsque le gouverneur actuel a remporté leurs circonscriptions, ils ont perdu leurs sièges.

So, it is clear that there is a big Trump effect going on right now.

It's a referendum on this president, and that's what we saw across the country. Judy Woodruff:

Stu, what would you say?

Stuart Rothenberg:

I agree.

The Democrats as a party are divided between the Bernie Sanders wing and Hillary Clinton wing, the pragmatists and ideologues.

But they have one thing in common. None of them like Donald Trump. And they wanted to turn out to vote, and they did. Et ils voulaient aller voter, et ils l'ont fait.

So, it was — I agree.

It was enthusiasm and it was Donald Trump. That's what defined this election. Judy Woodruff:

Well, let's talked about who turned out and what they cared about, Amy. Eh bien, parlons de qui est sorti et de ce qui les intéressait, Amy. And I think we have some graphics here to look at that.

Part of it was women.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Judy Woodruff:

And looking at women based on their different education levels, women and race, what do we see? Et en regardant les femmes en fonction de leurs différents niveaux d'éducation, des femmes et de la race, que voyons-nous ?

Amy Walter:

Judy, do you remember, 2016, we talked a lot about white suburban women, especially white suburban women with college degrees?

And those were the folks that Hillary Clinton was hoping were going to turn out and support her in big numbers. Et c'étaient les gens qu'Hillary Clinton espérait voir se présenter et la soutenir en grand nombre.

They didn't support her in big enough numbers to win in places like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. And even in Virginia, Ralph Northam outperformed where Hillary Clinton did with women, with married women, with college-educated women. Et même en Virginie, Ralph Northam a surpassé Hillary Clinton avec les femmes, avec les femmes mariées, avec les femmes diplômées.

In essence, it was, this election in Virginia was really about the suburban — you can call it a sort of suburban women's revenge, that they came out at a level that was really pretty amazing for what it gave to Ralph Northam. Essentiellement, c'était, cette élection en Virginie concernait vraiment la banlieue - vous pouvez appeler cela une sorte de vengeance des femmes de banlieue, qu'elles sont sorties à un niveau vraiment incroyable pour ce qu'elles ont donné à Ralph Northam. Judy Woodruff:

How much of a surprise was that, Stu?

Stuart Rothenberg:

Well, there was still a significant gender gap. Eh bien, il y avait encore un écart important entre les sexes.

We have had that for many, many decades.

And the Democrats continue to benefit. Et les démocrates continuent d'en profiter.

But we're seeing the parties change in terms of education and the coalitions. Mais on voit les partis changer en termes d'éducation et de coalitions. And so what I think we saw last night is just the trend, an ongoing trend where the Republicans are moving more downscale and the Democrats are moving upscale, certainly in terms of education. Et donc ce que je pense que nous avons vu hier soir n'est que la tendance, une tendance continue où les républicains descendent plus bas et les démocrates montent, certainement en termes d'éducation.

Amy Walter:

And that's what we saw too, that Ralph Northam didn't do any better in rural parts of Virginia — the Democrat — didn't do any better in rural parts of Virginia than Hillary Clinton had. Et c'est ce que nous avons vu aussi, que Ralph Northam n'a pas fait mieux dans les régions rurales de Virginie – le démocrate – n'a pas fait mieux dans les régions rurales de Virginie que Hillary Clinton. It's just that he did a lot better in the bluer parts of the state, so in those suburban Washington… C'est juste qu'il a fait beaucoup mieux dans les parties les plus bleues de l'État, donc dans ces banlieues de Washington… (CROSSTALK) Judy Woodruff:

They got their vote out. Ils ont obtenu leur vote.

Amy Walter:

Absolutely.

Judy Woodruff:

The Democrats got their vote out.

Stuart Rothenberg:

But the Republican vote held. Mais le vote républicain a tenu.

The Trump vote held among white evangelicals, rural voters and older working-class voters. Le vote Trump a eu lieu parmi les évangéliques blancs, les électeurs ruraux et les électeurs plus âgés de la classe ouvrière.

Amy Walter:

That's right. That's right.Judy Woodruff: It's just that, this time, the Democrats did turn out in numbers that Northam needed. C'est juste que, cette fois, les démocrates se sont présentés en nombre dont Northam avait besoin. Stuart Rothenberg:

That's right. Judy Woodruff:

Stu, what about when you look at the age of the folks who voted?

What does that tell us in Virginia?

Stuart Rothenberg:

Well, again, this is a split that has developed over a number of years.

And what you see is younger voters, 18-44, Northam with a huge advantage over Ed Gillespie. Et ce que vous voyez, ce sont des électeurs plus jeunes, 18-44 ans, Northam avec un énorme avantage sur Ed Gillespie.

These are voters who many of them, the youngest voters, 18 to 29, who didn't turn out a year ago in the presidential election. And there was some question, I think, whether they would turn out this time. Et on s'est demandé, je pense, s'ils se présenteraient cette fois-ci.

Northam isn't not exactly Mr. Charisma. There's the divide within the Democratic Party, as I mentioned, on pragmatism and ideology. But they did turn out in big numbers.

Voters 45 and older, the two oldest demographic cohorts, much more than closely divided between the two parties, but with an advantage to Gillespie. Les électeurs de 45 ans et plus, les deux cohortes démographiques les plus âgées, bien plus qu'étroitement réparties entre les deux partis, mais avec un avantage à Gillespie. And they also, of course, gave an advantage to Donald Trump last year as well. Judy Woodruff:

And it made a difference, Amy.

I was just looking at this, because the younger, the under 45s were 37 percent of the electorate. They were only more than a third of the electorate, but they were a big enough margin to make a difference. Ils ne représentaient que plus d'un tiers de l'électorat, mais ils constituaient une marge suffisamment importante pour faire la différence. Amy Walter:

That's right, and giving the margins that we didn't see Hillary Clinton get. C'est vrai, et en donnant les marges que nous n'avons pas vu Hillary Clinton obtenir. In fact, this has been the argument that Democrats have been struggling with since 2008, which is, how do we get that coalition that turned out for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 to come and turn out when Barack Obama's not on the ballot? En fait, c'est l'argument avec lequel les démocrates se débattent depuis 2008, à savoir, comment pouvons-nous faire en sorte que cette coalition qui s'est avérée pour Barack Obama en 2008 et 2012 se présente alors que Barack Obama n'est pas sur le bulletin de vote ? And in this case, they gave Ralph Northam, who Stu is exactly right, he's not the most charismatic, energizing kind of candidate, the kind of margins that they gave Barack Obama. Et dans ce cas, ils ont donné à Ralph Northam, à qui Stu a tout à fait raison, il n'est pas le genre de candidat le plus charismatique et le plus énergisant, le genre de marges qu'ils ont donné à Barack Obama. Judy Woodruff:

We also saw some interesting — and we reported on this early, Stu — and that is transgender were elected. Nous avons également vu des choses intéressantes – et nous en avons parlé tôt, Stu – et c'est que des transgenres ont été élus.

You had one elected to a state delegate post in Virginia, other transgender candidates around the country. Vous en avez fait élire un à un poste de délégué d'État en Virginie, d'autres candidats transgenres à travers le pays.

Is that the younger voters coming out? Est-ce que ce sont les jeunes électeurs qui sortent?

Stuart Rothenberg:

I think in part.

I think the advantage for the Democrats is that younger voters are more open-minded, more tolerant.

They value diversity and multiculturalism.

Guys 50-, 60-, 70-year-old white working-class voters are stuck in their ways. Les gars de 50, 60, 70 ans, les électeurs blancs de la classe ouvrière sont coincés dans leurs habitudes.

Their ways may be fine, but they're not as receptive to change. And these young voters participating, it's a huge boost for the Democrats. Et ces jeunes électeurs qui participent, c'est un énorme coup de pouce pour les démocrates. And, if you think about it, these people are entering the political system now or they have involved in the last 10 years. Et, si vous y réfléchissez, ces personnes entrent dans le système politique maintenant ou elles y ont participé au cours des 10 dernières années.

They are going to continue to vote over the next 20 to 30 years with their values.

Amy Walter:

Right.

Judy Woodruff:

Which raises the question everybody has, Amy, what does this mean, if anything, for next year for the big midterm elections?

Amy Walter:

Yes.

So, the enthusiasm factor is significant. We have talked about that a lot on this show, that people who are energized, especially people who are angry, turn out and vote, that you don't necessarily need to have perfect message — this is for Democrats. They don't need to have the perfect message. What they do have is Donald Trump. And he is a great motivator to get their voters to the polls. But the next question's going to come down to structure. Mais la prochaine question va se résumer à la structure. Where Democrats did very well last night was in suburban Washington, places that Hillary Clinton had already carried.

Can they win in places that Hillary Clinton didn't win? Can they do better among those white working-class voters, rural voters? And as Stu pointed out, the margins there for the Democrat weren't any better than they were for Hillary Clinton. Et comme l'a souligné Stu, les marges pour le démocrate n'étaient pas meilleures qu'elles ne l'étaient pour Hillary Clinton. Judy Woodruff:

And you heard me ask Tom Perez to — what are you doing to appeal to these Trump voters, to these voters in red states and red places? Et vous m'avez entendu demander à Tom Perez de – que faites-vous pour faire appel à ces électeurs de Trump, à ces électeurs dans les États rouges et les endroits rouges ?

Stuart Rothenberg:

Well, in part, we have to see what develops. Eh bien, en partie, nous devons voir ce qui se développe.

They're a year away. These were relatively a handful of races in a handful of states.

Judy Woodruff:

Right.

Stuart Rothenberg:

And let's see what happens with the economy, with foreign policy, with the Mueller investigation. But Democrats have to feel upbeat and enthusiastic right now. Mais les démocrates doivent se sentir optimistes et enthousiastes en ce moment.

And we will see what mistakes or successes the president has. Et nous verrons quelles sont les erreurs ou les succès du président. Judy Woodruff:

We will let them feel good for a day. Nous les laisserons se sentir bien pendant une journée.

(LAUGHTER)

Judy Woodruff:

Stu Rothenberg, Amy Walter, thank you.

Amy Walter:

Thank you, Judy.

Stuart Rothenberg:

Thanks, Judy.