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Asd 3, How to prepare for the next global recession

How to prepare for the next global recession

We focused on this now because it's been a decade since the global recession of

2008-2009 and some interesting and and worrying vulnerabilities are also popping up at the moment

In 2008 and 2009

The dominoes were really set up for quite a nasty financial and economic crisis this time

The economic vulnerabilities aren't quite as large

They're large enough that we could see a slowdown in GDP growth and a slowdown in trade and things of that nature

the real risk, is that our lack of preparedness and

the the lack of room for global cooperation

Will turn what starts as kind of a minor downturn into something much larger and much more difficult to deal with sometime the next year

or two

The last big global downturn began in the United States with the collapse of the housing bubble in the financial sector there

next time the trouble is much more likely to start elsewhere and perhaps

In the emerging world. Emerging economies are a much larger share of global output than they used to be

They've also gone on something of a borrowing binge over the last ten years, which means that they could be due for a reckoning

There are also reasons to be concerned about

the euro area and in particular Italy which has an enormous public debt problem and

where markets have been feeling a bit jittery about their ability to pay that back and that could relaunch the euro area debt crisis that

We saw about a half decade ago

The tools government's normally used to fight a recession won't be available in the same way that they normally are the next time around

Interest rates will be very low and so we normally rely on central banks to do interest rate cutting to perk up

Spending break up growth and they're not going to be able to do that. So pretty quickly

They're gonna have to turn to less tested methods money printing to buy bonds

Quantitative easing was something that was used last time that's going to be used again

But that works in a much more uncertain way and is much more politically contentious than some of the tools that are ordinarily used

Within countries the problem is that government is much more polarized across the world

You have many more populist parties nationalist parties and it's going to be very hard to reach the agreement. That's

Necessary to launch big spinning programs and of that nature, then you also have disagreements across countries

Which means that it's much more likely you have

Contentious policies tariffs that go up currency wars things of that nature as countries struggle to deal with the next downturn

Ideally governments would be taking some steps right now to get ready for the next recession

They should be changing their central bank policy targets

What we've learned is that a low inflation target doesn't give central bank's enough room to fight recessions before interest rates fall to zero

They should also be getting their budgets ready, which means preparing

to include measures that will increase spending automatically when the economy weakens in the future so that they don't have to have to have

fights in Parliament about whether or not to expand spending when the time comes but then most important of all I think governments need to

Coordinate their responses with each other that makes it much more likely that we don't enter a scenario like we did in the 1930s

When tariff barriers went up when there were currency wars and competitive devaluations

and when ultimately that led to some pretty significant and nasty geopolitical tension

How to prepare for the next global recession Wie man sich auf die nächste globale Rezession vorbereitet Cómo prepararse para la próxima recesión mundial Comment se préparer à la prochaine récession mondiale 次の世界同時不況にどう備えるか Kaip pasirengti kitam pasauliniam nuosmukiui Jak przygotować się na kolejną globalną recesję Como se preparar para a próxima recessão mundial Как подготовиться к следующей глобальной рецессии Bir sonraki küresel durgunluğa nasıl hazırlanılır? Як підготуватися до наступної глобальної рецесії 如何为下一次全球经济衰退做准备

We focused on this now because it's been a decade since the global recession of 我们现在关注这个问题是因为全球经济衰退已经持续了十年。

2008-2009 and some interesting and and worrying vulnerabilities are also popping up at the moment 2008年至2009年间,一些有趣且令人担忧的漏洞也在出现

In 2008 and 2009 2008年和2009年

The dominoes were really set up for quite a nasty financial and economic crisis this time 这一次真的为严重的金融和经济危机做好了准备

The economic vulnerabilities aren't quite as large 经济上的脆弱性并不是很大

They're large enough that we could see a slowdown in GDP growth and a slowdown in trade and things of that nature 它们足够大,以至于我们可能会看到GDP增长放缓,贸易放缓等方面的问题

the real risk, is that our lack of preparedness and 真正的风险在于我们缺乏准备

the the lack of room for global cooperation 缺乏全球合作空间

Will turn what starts as kind of a minor downturn into something much larger and much more difficult to deal with sometime the next year 将会导致一开始的轻微衰退演变成明年某个时候更大更难应对的问题

or two 或更长时间

The last big global downturn began in the United States with the collapse of the housing bubble in the financial sector there 上次大规模全球衰退始于美国,由那里金融部门的房地产泡沫破裂引发

next time the trouble is much more likely to start elsewhere and perhaps 下一次问题很可能会在其他地方开始,也许是在新兴市场

In the emerging world. Emerging economies are a much larger share of global output than they used to be 新兴经济体在全球产出中所占比重比过去要大得多

They've also gone on something of a borrowing binge over the last ten years, which means that they could be due for a reckoning 过去十年里,它们还进行了某种借债狂潮,这意味着它们可能会迎来一场清算

There are also reasons to be concerned about 还有一些令人担忧的原因

the euro area and in particular Italy which has an enormous public debt problem and 欧元区,尤其是意大利,这里存在着巨大的公债问题

where markets have been feeling a bit jittery about their ability to pay that back and that could relaunch the euro area debt crisis that 市场对它们偿还能力感到有些不安,可能会重新引发欧元区债务危机

We saw about a half decade ago 我们大约看到了五年前

The tools government's normally used to fight a recession won't be available in the same way that they normally are the next time around 政府通常用来对抗经济衰退的工具下一次可能无法像通常那样使用

Interest rates will be very low and so we normally rely on central banks to do interest rate cutting to perk up 利率将非常低,因此我们通常依赖央行来降低利率以振兴经济

Spending break up growth and they're not going to be able to do that. So pretty quickly 支出增长会被削减,他们将无法做到。因此相当迅速

They're gonna have to turn to less tested methods money printing to buy bonds 他们将不得不转向较少被测试过的印钞购买债券的方法

Quantitative easing was something that was used last time that's going to be used again 量化宽松政策是上次使用过的政策,将再次被采用

But that works in a much more uncertain way and is much more politically contentious than some of the tools that are ordinarily used 但其作用方式更加不确定,且比通常使用的一些工具更具政治争议性

Within countries the problem is that government is much more polarized across the world 一个国家内部的问题是,全世界的政府在很大程度上出现了极端分化

You have many more populist parties nationalist parties and it's going to be very hard to reach the agreement. That's 您有更多的民粹主义政党、民族主义政党,达成协议将会非常困难。这是必要的,要启动大规模的旋转计划等类似项目,同时还存在各国之间的分歧,这意味着更有可能出现

Necessary to launch big spinning programs and of that nature, then you also have disagreements across countries 您有更多的民粹主义政党、民族主义政党,达成协议将会非常困难。这是必要的,要启动大规模的旋转计划等类似项目,同时还存在各国之间的分歧,这意味着更有可能出现

Which means that it's much more likely you have 具有差异性。

Contentious policies tariffs that go up currency wars things of that nature as countries struggle to deal with the next downturn 有争议的政策关税上涨,货币战争等等,这些都是各国竭力应对下一次经济衰退的手段

Ideally governments would be taking some steps right now to get ready for the next recession 理想情况下,各国政府现在应该采取一些措施,为下一次经济衰退做好准备

They should be changing their central bank policy targets 他们应该调整他们的央行政策目标

What we've learned is that a low inflation target doesn't give central bank's enough room to fight recessions before interest rates fall to zero 我们学到的是,低通胀目标并不给央行足够的空间去应对经济衰退,直到利率降至零之前

They should also be getting their budgets ready, which means preparing 他们还应当准备好他们的预算,这意味着做好准备

to include measures that will increase spending automatically when the economy weakens in the future so that they don't have to have to have 要包括措施,当未来经济疲软时会自动增加支出,这样他们就不必再

fights in Parliament about whether or not to expand spending when the time comes but then most important of all I think governments need to 议会中存在关于在时机成熟时是否扩大支出的争论,但我认为最重要的是政府需要

Coordinate their responses with each other that makes it much more likely that we don't enter a scenario like we did in the 1930s 彼此协调其反应,这使得我们更不可能陷入像上世纪30年代那样的局面

When tariff barriers went up when there were currency wars and competitive devaluations 当关税壁垒提高时,出现了货币战和竞争性贬值

and when ultimately that led to some pretty significant and nasty geopolitical tension 最终,这导致了一些相当严重且恶劣的地缘政治紧张局势