כאן | מדע - מי אשם בהחלטות הגרועות שלנו? here|science|who|is to blame|in the decisions|bad|our aquí | Ciencia - ¿Quién tiene la culpa de nuestras malas decisiones? aqui | Ciência – Quem é o culpado pelas nossas más decisões? здесь | Наука - Кто виноват в наших плохих решениях? Here | Science - Who is to blame for our bad decisions?

אם היו נותנים לכם 50 שקלים ביד, או 100 שקלים בהגרלת מטבע if|they were|to give|to you|shekels|in hand|or|shekels|in the lottery of|currency Se eles lhe dessem 50 shekels à mão, ou 100 shekels em uma loteria If you were given 50 shekels in hand, or 100 shekels in a coin toss

מה הייתם לוקחים? what|you (plural) would|take What would you choose?

מתברר שאת התשובה שאתם כל כך בטוחים בה - אפשר בקלות לגרום לכם להפוך. it turns out|that you|answer|that you|so|so|confident|in it|it is possible|easily||you|to change It turns out that the answer you are so sure of - can easily be made to change.

אם בחרתם ב-50 השקלים if|you chose|in 50|shekels If you chose the 50 shekels

הכלכלנים מכנים אתכם שונאי סיכון, The economists|call|you|haters|risk Economists refer to you as risk-averse,

ואם בחרתם בהגרלה, תתויגו על ידיהם כאוהבי סיכון. and if|you chose|in the lottery|you will be tagged|by|their hands|as lovers of|risk and if you chose the lottery, you will be labeled by them as risk-seeking.

כך או כך בכלכלה מתייחסים אליכם כרציונלים, וככאלה אתם יודעים מה אתם מעדיפים, ופועלים בהתאם באופן עקבי either way|or|thus|in economics|they treat|to you|as rational|and as such|you|know|what|you|prefer|and act|accordingly|in a manner|consistent De qualquer maneira, na economia, você é tratado como racional e, como tal, sabe o que prefere e age de acordo. Either way, in economics, you are regarded as rational, and as such, you know what you prefer and act accordingly in a consistent manner.

אוהבי הסיכון יעדיפו להסתכן, ושונאי הסיכון יעדיפו לצמצם סיכונים. risk-takers|risk|will prefer|to take risks|and risk-averse|risk|will prefer|to minimize|risks Risk-seekers will prefer to take risks, while risk-averse individuals will prefer to minimize risks.

וזה חשוב כי ההנחה הבסיסית בתורת הכלכלה הקלאסית היא שהאדם הוא יצור רציונלי. and this|is important|because|the assumption|basic|in the theory of|economics|classical|is|that man|is|creature|rational Y esto es importante porque el supuesto básico de la teoría económica clásica es que el hombre es un ser racional. E isso é importante porque a suposição básica da economia clássica é que o homem é uma criatura racional. And this is important because the basic assumption in classical economic theory is that humans are rational beings.

דניאל כהנמן ועמוס טברסקי, שני פסיכולוגים, קראו תיגר על ההנחה הזו, בסדרת ניסויים מפורסמת על קבלת החלטות. Daniel|Kahneman|and Amos|Tversky|two|psychologists|challenged|the assumption|on|assumption|this|in a series|experiments|famous|on|decision|making Daniel Kahneman e Amos Tversky, dois psicólogos, desafiaram essa suposição, em uma famosa série de experimentos de tomada de decisão. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, two psychologists, challenged this assumption in a famous series of experiments on decision making.

ראשית, הם הראו שאנשים נותנים יותר משקל לתוצאה שהיא בעיניהם ודאית. בין אם הפסד או רווח first|they|showed||give|more|weight|to the outcome|that is|in their eyes|certain|whether|if|loss|or|gain Primeiro, eles mostraram que as pessoas dão mais peso a um resultado que é certo para elas. Seja perda ou ganho First, they showed that people give more weight to an outcome that is certain in their eyes, whether it is a loss or a gain.

אנשים לא אוהבים חוסר ודאות. לאפקט הזה הם קראו "אפקט הוודאות". People|do not|like|lack|certainty|To the effect|this|they|called|effect|of certainty As pessoas não gostam de incerteza. Eles chamaram esse efeito de "efeito certeza". People do not like uncertainty. They called this effect the "certainty effect."

שנית, הם הראו שההעדפה האישית לסיכון משתנה בהתאם לנסיבות: כאשר החליפו את השאלה על רווח בשאלה: secondly|they|showed|that the preference|personal|for risk|changes|according to|to the circumstances|when|they replaced|the||about|gain|with the question Em segundo lugar, eles mostraram que a preferência pessoal pelo risco varia de acordo com as circunstâncias: Quando eles substituíram a questão do lucro pela pergunta: Second, they showed that personal risk preference changes depending on the circumstances: when they replaced the question about gain with the question:

מה הייתם מעדיפים, להפסיד 50 שקלים בוודאות, או 100 שקלים בהגרלת מטבע, what|you (plural) would|prefer|to lose|shekels|with certainty|or|shekels|in a coin toss|coin |||خسارة|||||| O que você prefere, perder 50 shekels com certeza, ou 100 shekels em uma loteria de moeda, What would you prefer, to lose 50 shekels for sure, or 100 shekels in a coin toss?

התהפכו היוצרות - אנשים העדיפו להסתכן בהפסד גדול יותר על פני הפסד קטן יותר אך ודאי. were reversed|priorities|people|preferred|to risk|in a loss|greater|more|over|facing|loss|smaller|more|but|certain Os criadores se viraram - as pessoas preferiram arriscar uma perda maior a uma perda menor, mas certa. The roles have reversed - people preferred to risk a larger loss over a smaller but certain loss.

הם קראו לאפקט הזה "אפקט ההשתקפות", שבו נקודת האפס היא כמו מראה. They|called|to the effect|this|effect|reflection|in which|point|zero|it|like|mirror Eles chamaram esse efeito de "efeito de reflexão", onde o ponto zero é como um espelho. They called this effect "the reflection effect," where the zero point is like a mirror.

זו הסיבה שאנחנו מתקשים למכור מניות בהפסד - וכך מסתכנים בהפסד גדול יותר. this|reason|that we|struggle|to sell|stocks|at a loss|and thus|risk|in a loss|greater|more É por isso que temos dificuldade em vender ações com prejuízo - e, portanto, arriscamos uma perda maior. This is why we struggle to sell stocks at a loss - and thus risk a larger loss.

שלישית, הם הראו שבניגוד לתיאוריה הכלכלית שבה אנשים מעריכים אך ורק את התוצאה, לניסוח הבעיה third|they|showed|that contrary|to the theory|economic|in which|people|evaluate|only|the result|at|the outcome|to the formulation|of the problem Terceiro, eles mostraram que, em contraste com a teoria econômica em que as pessoas avaliam apenas o resultado, formular o problema Thirdly, they showed that contrary to economic theory where people evaluate only the outcome, the framing of the problem

מה שקרוי מסגור - השפעה רבה על הבחירה. what|is called|framing|influence|great|on|the choice |||تأثير||| O que é chamado de enquadramento - uma grande influência na escolha. has a significant impact on the choice.

במקום להמתקד רק בתוצאה הסופית, אנשים מחלקים את העולם לרווחים והפסדים מנקודת ייחוס שהם בוחרים אותה instead of|to focus|only|on the result|final|people|divide|the|world|into gains|and losses|from the perspective of|reference|that they|choose|it Em vez de focar apenas no resultado final, as pessoas dividem o mundo em ganhos e perdas a partir do ponto de referência que escolherem. Instead of focusing only on the final outcome, people divide the world into gains and losses from a reference point they choose.

וכך בעצם מבודדים חלקים מהבעיה. and thus|essentially|we isolate|parts|from the problem And thus, they actually isolate parts of the problem.

העובדה שאנחנו מבודדים יכולה להוביל אותנו לאי-עקביות בהחלטות כי היא מאפשרת לנסח את אותה הבעיה the fact|that we are|isolated|can|lead|us|||in decisions|because|it|allows|to formulate|the|same|problem O fato de estarmos isolados pode nos levar a inconsistências nas decisões porque nos permite formular o mesmo problema The fact that we isolate can lead us to inconsistencies in decisions because it allows us to frame the same problem.

פעם כשאלה של רווח ופעם של הפסד, שבהן, כמו שראינו, אנשים מקבלים החלטות באופן שונה. once|as a question|of|profit|and once|of|loss|in which|as|we saw|people|make|decisions|in a manner|different Uma vez por questão de lucro e outra por prejuízo, em que, como vimos, as pessoas tomam decisões de forma diferente. Sometimes as a question of gain and sometimes as a question of loss, in which, as we have seen, people make decisions differently.

כאשר מחברים את שלושת האפקטים, רואים שאנשים מפרים את הנחת הרציונליות שבבסיס הכלכלה. when|combining|the|three|effects|we see||violate|the|assumption|rationality|that underlies|economics Quando você combina os três efeitos, vê que as pessoas estão violando a suposição de racionalidade subjacente à economia. When combining the three effects, we see that people violate the assumption of rationality that underlies economics.

לאופן הצגת הבחירה יש השפעה מכרעת על הבחירה עצמה - לפעמים, יותר מלחישובי תועלת. the manner|presentation|choice|has|influence|decisive|on|choice|itself|sometimes|more|than calculations of|utility The way the choice is presented has a decisive impact on the choice itself - sometimes, more than the calculations of utility.

למודל החדש שלהם קראו "תורת הערך", ועל הפניית הזרקור אל עבר חוסר הרציונליות שלנו, the model|new|their|called|theory|value|and on|the directing|spotlight|towards|past|lack|rationality|our |||||||||||نقص|| Seu novo modelo foi chamado de "teoria do valor", e por chamar a atenção para nossa irracionalidade, They called their new model "Prospect Theory," and by shining a spotlight on our irrationality,

שממנה נטו להתעלם בתיאוריות הכלכליות, הפך כהנמן לפסיכולוג הראשון שזכה בפרס נובל לכלכלה, ב-2002. from which|tended|to ignore|in the theories|economic|became|Kahneman||first|who won|the prize|Nobel|for Economics|in 2002 O que tendia a ser ignorado nas teorias econômicas, Kahneman se tornou o primeiro psicólogo a ganhar o Prêmio Nobel de Economia em 2002. which had been overlooked in economic theories, Kahneman became the first psychologist to win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002.

טברסקי שנפטר שש שנים קודם לכן, לא זכה לכבוד, אך שמו נותר מקושר לתגלית המרתקת הזו. Tversky|who passed away|six|years|prior|therefore|not|received|the honor|but|his name|remained|associated|to the discovery|fascinating|this Tversky, que havia morrido seis anos antes, não foi homenageado, mas seu nome continua ligado a essa fascinante descoberta. Tversky, who passed away six years earlier, did not receive the honor, but his name remains linked to this fascinating discovery.