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•TED TALKS•, Jared Diamond: Why do societies collapse?

Jared Diamond: Why do societies collapse?

I think all of us have been interested, at one time or another, in the romantic mysteries of all those societies that collapsed, such as the classic Maya in the Yucatan, the Easter Islanders, the Anasazi, Fertile Crescent society, Angor Wat, Great Zimbabwe and so on.

And within the last decade or two, archaeologists have shown us that there were environmental problems underlying many of these past collapses. But there were also plenty of places in the world where societies have been developing for thousands of years without any sign of a major collapse, such as Japan, Java, Tonga and Tikopea. So evidently, societies in some areas are more fragile than in other areas. How can we understand what makes some societies more fragile than other societies? The problem is obviously relevant to our situation today, because today as well, there are some societies that have already collapsed, such as Somalia and Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia. There are also societies today that may be close to collapse, such as Nepal, Indonesia and Columbia. What about ourselves?

What is there that we can learn from the past that would help us avoid declining or collapsing in the way that so many past societies have? Obviously the answer to this question is not going to be a single factor. If anyone tells you that there is a single - factor explanation for societal collapses, you know right away that they're an idiot. This is a complex subject. But how can we make sense out of the complexities of this subject? In analyzing societal collapses, I've arrived at a five-point framework - a checklist of things that I go through to try and understand collapses. And I'll illustrate that five point framework by the extinction of the Greenland Norse society. This is a European society with literate records, so we know a good deal about the people and their motivation. In AD 984 Vikings went out to Greenland, settled Greenland, and around 1450 they died out - the society collapsed, and every one of them ended up dead. Why did they all end up dead?

Well, in my five-point framework, the first item on the framework is to look for human impacts on the environment: people inadvertently destroying the resource base on which they depend. And in the case of the Viking Norse, the Vikings inadvertently caused soil erosion and deforestation, which was a particular problem for them because they required forests to make charcoal, to make iron. So they ended up an Iron Age European society, virtually unable to make their own iron. A second item on my checklist is climate change. Climate can get warmer or colder or dryer or wetter. In the case of the Vikings -- in Greenland, the climate got colder in the late 1300s, and especially in the 1400s. But a cold climate isn't necessarily fatal, because the Inuit -- the Eskimos inhabiting Greenland at the same time -- did better, rather than worse, with cold climates. So why didn't the Greenland Norse as well? The third thing on my checklist is relations with neighboring friendly societies that may prop up a society.

And if that friendly support is pulled away, that may make a society more likely to collapse. In the case of the Greenland Norse, they had trade with the mother country -- Norway -- and that trade dwindled: partly because Norway got weaker, partly because of sea ice between Greenland and Norway. The fourth item on my checklist is relations with hostile societies.

In the case of Norse Greenland, the hostiles were the Inuit -- the Eskimos sharing Greenland -- with whom the Norse got off to bad relationships. And we know that the Inuit killed the Norse and, probably of greater importance, may have blocked access to the outer fjords, on which the Norse depended for seals at a critical time of the year. And then finally, the fifth item on my checklist is the political, economic, social and cultural factors in the society that make it more or less likely that the society will perceive and solve its environmental problems.

In the case of the Greenland Norse, cultural factors that made it difficult for them to solve their problems were: their commitments to a Christian society investing heavily in cathedrals; their being a competitive-ranked chiefly society; and their scorn for the Inuit, from whom they refused to learn. So that's how the five-part framework is relevant to the collapse and eventual extinction of the Greenland Norse. What about a society today?

For the past five years, I've been taking my wife and kids to Southwestern Montana, where I worked as a teenager on the hay harvest. And Montana, at first sight, seems like the most pristine environment in the United States. But scratch the surface, and Montana suffers from serious problems. Going through the same checklist: human environmental impacts? Yes, acute in Montana. Toxic problems from mine waste have caused damage of billions of dollars. Problems from weeds, weed control, cost Montana nearly 200 million dollars a year. Montana has lost agricultural areas from salinization, problems of forest management, problems of forest fires. Second item on my checklist: climate change. Yes -- the climate in Montana is getting warmer and drier, but Montana agriculture depends especially on irrigation from the snow pack, and as the snow is melting -- for example, as the glaciers in Glacier National Park are disappearing -- that's bad news for Montana irrigation agriculture. Third thing on my checklist: relations with friendlies that can sustain the society.

In Montana today, more than half of the income of Montana is not earned within Montana, but is derived from out of state: transfer payments from social security, investments and so on --which makes Montana vulnerable to the rest of the United States. Fourth: relations with hostiles.

Montanans have the same problems as do all Americans, in being sensitive to problems created by hostiles overseas affecting our oil supplies, and terrorist attacks. And finally, last item on my checklist: question of how political, economic, social, cultural attitudes play into this. Montanans have long-held values, which today seem to be getting in the way of their solving their own problems. Long-held devotion to logging and to mines and to agriculture, and to no government regulation; values that worked well in the past, but they don't seem to be working well today. So, I'm looking at these issues of collapses for a lot of past societies and for many present societies.

Are there any general conclusions that arise? In a way, just like Tolstoy's statement about every unhappy marriage being different, every collapsed or endangered society is different -- they all have different details. But nevertheless, there are certain common threads that emerge from these comparisons of past societies that did or did not collapse and threatened societies today. One interesting common thread has to do with, in many cases, the rapidity of collapse after a society reaches its peak. There are many societies that don't wind down gradually, but they build up -- get richer and more powerful -- and then within a short time, within a few decades after their peak, they collapse. For example, the classic lowland Maya of the Yucatan began to collapse in the early 800s -- literally a few decades after the Maya were building their biggest monuments, and Maya population was greatest. Or again, the collapse of the Soviet Union took place within a couple of decades, maybe within a decade, of the time when the Soviet Union was at its greatest power.

An analogue would be the growth of bacteria in a petri dish. These rapid collapses are especially likely where there's a mismatch between available resources and resource consumption, or a mismatch between economic outlays and economic potential. In a petri dish, bacteria grow. Say they double every generation, and five generations before the end the petri dish is 15/16ths empty, and then the next generation's 3/4ths empty, and the next generation half empty. Within one generation after the petri dish still being half empty, it is full. There's no more food and the bacteria have collapsed. So, this is a frequent theme: societies collapse very soon after reaching their peak in power. What it means to put it mathematically is that, if you're concerned about a society today, you should be looking not at the value of the mathematical function -- the wealth itself -- but you should be looking at the first derivative and the second derivatives of the function.

That's one general theme. A second general theme is that there are many, often subtle environmental factors that make some societies more fragile than others. Many of those factors are not well understood. For example, why is it that in the Pacific, of those hundreds of Pacific islands, why did Easter Island end up as the most devastating case of complete deforestation? It turns out that there were about nine different environmental factors -- some, rather subtle ones -- that were working against the Easter Islanders, and they involve fallout of volcanic tephra, latitude, rainfall. Perhaps the most subtle of them is that it turns out that a major input of nutrients which protects island environments in the Pacific is from the fallout of continental dust from central Asia. Easter, of all Pacific islands, has the least input of dust from Asia restoring the fertility of its soils. But that's a factor that we didn't even appreciate until 1999. So, some societies, for subtle environmental reasons, are more fragile than others.

And then finally, another generalization. I'm now teaching a course at UCLA, to UCLA undergraduates, on these collapses of societies. What really bugs my UCLA undergraduate students is, how on earth did these societies not see what they were doing? How could the Easter Islanders have deforested their environment? What did they say when they were cutting down the last palm tree? Didn't they see what they were doing? How could societies not perceive their impacts on the environments and stop in time? And I would expect that, if our human civilization carries on, then maybe in the next century people will be asking, why on earth did these people today in the year 2003 not see the obvious things that they were doing and take corrective action? It seems incredible in the past. In the future, it'll seem incredible what we are doing today. And so I've been trying to develop a hierarchical set of considerations about why societies fail to solve their problems -- why they fail to perceive the problems or, if they perceive them, why they fail to tackle them. Or, if they tackle them, why do they fail to succeed in solving them? I'll just mention two generalizations in this area.

One blueprint for trouble, making collapse likely, is where there is a conflict of interest between the short-term interest of the decision-making elites and the long-term interest of the society as a whole, especially if the elites are able to insulate themselves from the consequences of their actions. Where what's good in the short run for the elite is bad for the society as a whole, there's a real risk of the elite doing things that would bring the society down in the long run. For example, among the Greenland Norse -- a competitive rank society -- what the chiefs really wanted is more followers and more sheep and more resources to outcompete the neighboring chiefs. And that led the chiefs to do what's called flogging the land: overstocking the land, forcing tenant farmers into dependency. And that made the chiefs powerful in the short run, but led to the society's collapse in the long run. Those same issues of conflicts of interest are acute in the United States today.

Especially because the decision makers in the United States are frequently able to insulate themselves from consequences by living in gated compounds, by drinking bottled water and so on. And within the last couple of years, it's been obvious that the elite in the business world correctly perceive that they can advance their short-term interest by doing things that are good for them but bad for society as a whole, such as draining a few billion dollars out of Enron and other businesses. They are quite correct that these things are good for them in the short term, although bad for society in the long term. So, that's one general conclusion about why societies make bad decisions: conflicts of interest. And the other generalization that I want to mention is that it's particularly hard for a society to make quote-unquote good decisions when there is a conflict involving strongly held values that are good in many circumstances but are poor in other circumstances.

For example, the Greenland Norse, in this difficult environment, were held together for four-and-a-half centuries by their shared commitment to religion, and by their strong social cohesion. But those two things -- commitment to religion and strong social cohesion -- also made it difficult for them to change at the end and to learn from the Inuit. Or today -- Australia. One of the things that enabled Australia to survive in this remote outpost of European civilization for 250 years has been their British identity. But today, their commitment to a British identity is serving Australians poorly in their need to adapt to their situation in Asia. So it's particularly difficult to change course when the things that get you in trouble are the things that are also the source of your strength. What's going to be the outcome today?

Well, all of us know the dozen sorts of ticking time bombs going on in the modern world, time bombs that have fuses of a few decades to -- all of them, not more than 50 years, and any one of which can do us in; the time bombs of water, of soil, of climate change, invasive species, the photosynthetic ceiling, population problems, toxics, etc., etc. -- listing about 12 of them. And while these time bombs -- none of them has a fuse beyond 50 years, and most of them have fuses of a few decades -- some of them, in some places, have much shorter fuses. At the rate at which we're going now, the Philippines will lose all its accessible loggable forest within five years. And the Solomon Islands are only one year away from losing their loggable forest, which is their major export. And that's going to be spectacular for the economy of the Solomons. People often ask me,Jared, what's the most important thing that we need to do about the world's environmental problems? And my answer is, the most important thing we need to do is to forget about there being any single thing that is the most important thing we need to do. Instead, there are a dozen things, any one of which could do us in. And we've got to get them all right, because if we solve 11, we fail to solve the 12th -- we're in trouble. For example, if we solve our problems of water and soil and population, but don't solve our problems of toxics, then we are in trouble. The fact is that our present course is a non-sustainable course, which means, by definition, that it cannot be maintained.

And the outcome is going to get resolved within a few decades. That means that those of us in this room who are less than 50 or 60 years old will see how these paradoxes are resolved, and those of us who are over the age of 60 may not see the resolution, but our children and grandchildren certainly will. The resolution is going to achieve either of two forms: either we will resolve these non-sustainable time-fuses in pleasant ways of our own choice by taking remedial action, or else these conflicts are going to get settled in unpleasant ways not of our choice -- namely, by war, disease or starvation. But what's for sure is that our non-sustainable course will get resolved in one way or another in a few decades. In other words, since the theme of this session is choices, we have a choice. Does that mean that we should get pessimistic and overwhelmed? I draw the reverse conclusion. The big problems facing the world today are not at all things beyond our control.

Our biggest threat is not an asteroid about to crash into us, something we can do nothing about. Instead, all the major threats facing us today are problems entirely of our own making. And since we made the problems, we can also solve the problems. That then means that it's entirely in our power to deal with these problems. In particular, what can all of us do? For those of you who are interested in these choices, there are lots of things you can do. There's a lot that we don't understand, and that we need to understand. And there's a lot that we already do understand, but aren't doing, and that we need to be doing. Thank you. (Applause)

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Jared Diamond: Why do societies collapse? Джаред||||| Jared Diamond: Warum?||||| Jared Diamond lecture|Jared Diamond||||fall apart Jared Diamond: Dlaczego społeczeństwa upadają?|Jared Diamond|||| Jared Diamond: Warum brechen Gesellschaften zusammen? Jared Diamond: Diamond: Γιατί καταρρέουν οι κοινωνίες; Jared Diamond: ¿Por qué se derrumban las sociedades? Jared Diamond : Pourquoi les sociétés s'effondrent-elles ? ジャレド・ダイアモンドなぜ社会は崩壊するのか? Jaredas Diamondas: Diamondas Diamondas: Kodėl žlunga visuomenės? Jared Diamond: Dlaczego społeczeństwa upadają? Jared Diamond: Porque é que as sociedades se desmoronam? Джаред Даймонд: Почему разрушаются общества? Jared Diamond: Toplumlar neden çöker? Джаред Даймонд: Чому розпадаються суспільства? 贾里德·戴蒙德:为什么社会会崩溃? 贾雷德-戴蒙德社会为何崩溃?

I think all of us have been interested, at one time or another, in the romantic mysteries of all those societies that collapsed, such as the classic Maya in the Yucatan, the Easter Islanders, the Anasazi, Fertile Crescent society, Angor Wat, Great Zimbabwe and so on. |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Анасази||Плодородный Полумесяц||Ангкор Ват|Ангкор Ват||||| ||||||||||||||||enigmatic histories|||||||||||classic Maya civilization|||Yucatan Peninsula|||Easter Island inhabitants||Ancient Puebloans||||Angkor Wat|Angkor Wat||Great Zimbabwe||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||então| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Yucatán-Halbinsel|||Osterinsulaner||Anasazi-Kultur||||Angkor Wat|Angkor Wat||Groß-Simbabwe||| ||||||||||||||||||||||colapsaron||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Angkor Wat|||||| Ich glaube, wir alle haben uns irgendwann einmal für die romantischen Geheimnisse all jener Gesellschaften interessiert, die zusammengebrochen sind, wie die klassischen Maya in Yucatan, die Bewohner der Osterinseln, die Anasazi, die Gesellschaft des Fruchtbaren Halbmonds, Angor Wat, Groß-Simbabwe und so weiter. Yucatan'daki klasik Mayalar, Paskalya Adalıları, Anasaziler, Bereketli Hilal toplumu, Angor Wat, Büyük Zimbabve ve diğerleri gibi çökmüş olan tüm toplumların romantik gizemleri sanırım hepimizin ilgisini çekmiştir.

And within the last decade or two, archaeologists have shown us that there were environmental problems underlying many of these past collapses. |||||||考古学家|||||||||||||| |||||||||||||avaient eu|||||||| |||||||historical researchers|||||||ecological conditions|||||||falls apart |||||||||||||||||||||Zusammenbrüche And within the last decade or two, archaeologists have shown us that there were environmental problems underlying many of these past collapses. But there were also plenty of places in the world where societies have been developing for thousands of years without any sign of a major collapse, such as Japan, Java, Tonga and Tikopea. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Тонга||Тикопия Mais|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||major downfall||||Java Island|Tonga||Tikopia Island ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Tonga||Tikopia |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Java|Tonga||Tikopia Но было множество мест в мире, где общества развивались тысячи лет без каких-либо признаков крупного краха, таких как Япония, Ява, Тонга и Тикопея. So evidently, societies in some areas are more fragile than in other areas. How can we understand what makes some societies more fragile than other societies? |||||||||хрупкими||| The problem is obviously relevant to our situation today, because today as well, there are some societies that have already collapsed, such as Somalia and Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia. |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Югославия Le||||pertinent||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||collapsed society||Rwanda's collapse||||former Yugoslavia |||||||||||||||||||||tais|||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||Ruanda|||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||Rwanda|||| ||||||||||||||||||||colapsado||||||||| There are also societies today that may be close to collapse, such as Nepal, Indonesia and Columbia. |||||||||||||Nepal|Indonesia|| hay||||||||||||||||Colombia What about ourselves?

What is there that we can learn from the past that would help us avoid declining or collapsing in the way that so many past societies have? |||||||||||||||verfallen||zusammenbrechen||||||||| |||||||||||||||deteriorating||falling apart||||||||| Was können wir aus der Vergangenheit lernen, um zu vermeiden, dass wir so untergehen oder zusammenbrechen, wie es so viele Gesellschaften in der Vergangenheit getan haben? Что мы можем извлечь из прошлого, которые помогут нам избежать снижения или рушится так, как это происходит во многих прошлых обществах? Obviously the answer to this question is not going to be a single factor. |||||||||||||contributing element Очевидно, что ответ на этот вопрос не будет одним из факторов. If anyone tells you that there is a single - factor explanation for societal collapses, you know right away that they’re an idiot. |||||||||facteur unique|||||vous||||||| ||||||||||||gesellschaftlich||||||||| ||||||||||||society's collective||||||||| |||||||||||||colapsos sociales|||||||| Wenn Ihnen jemand erzählt, dass es nur eine einzige Erklärung für gesellschaftliche Zusammenbrüche gibt, wissen Sie sofort, dass er ein Idiot ist. This is a complex subject. Это сложный вопрос. But how can we make sense out of the complexities of this subject? |||||||||复杂性||| |||||||||complexités||| |||||||||Komplexität||| |||||||||intricacies||| |||||||||złożoności||| Но как мы можем понять смысл сложностей этого предмета? 但是我们如何才能理解这个主题的复杂性呢? In analyzing societal collapses, I’ve arrived at a five-point framework - a checklist of things that I go through to try and understand collapses. ||||||||||||||||||||попробовать||| ||||j'ai||||||||||||||||||| |examining|||||||||||evaluation criteria||||||||||| |||||||||ponto|||||||||||||| ||||||||||||Checkliste||||||||||| ||||||||||||清单||||||||||| Анализируя социальные срывы, я пришел к пятибалльной структуре - контрольный список вещей, которые я просматриваю, чтобы попытаться понять, что происходит крах. 在分析社会崩溃时,我得出了一个五点框架——这是一个我用来尝试理解崩溃的清单。 And I’ll illustrate that five point framework by the extinction of the Greenland Norse society. И|||||||||||||| ||demonstrate|||||||disappearance|||Greenland Norse society|Greenland Norse| |||||||||extinção||||| |||||||||wymarcie|||Grenlandia|Norse z Grenlandii| И я проиллюстрирую эту пятибалльную основу исчезновением гренландского норвежского общества. 我将通过格林兰诺斯社会的灭绝来说明这个五点框架。 This is a European society with literate records, so we know a good deal about the people and their motivation. ||||||schriftliche Aufzeichnungen||||||||||||| ||||||written and readable|written documents|||||||||||| ||||||escrita||||||||||||| |||europea|||||||||||||||| Это европейское общество с грамотными записями, поэтому мы хорошо знаем о людях и их мотивации. In AD 984 Vikings went out to Greenland, settled Greenland, and around 1450 they died out - the society collapsed, and every one of them ended up dead. ||||||||格陵兰|||||||||||||||| В 984 г. н.э. викинги пришли в Гренландию, заселили ее, а около 1450 г. вымерли - общество распалось, и каждый из них погиб. Why did they all end up dead? 为什么|||||| Почему все они умерли?

Well, in my five-point framework, the first item on the framework is to look for human impacts on the environment: people inadvertently destroying the resource base on which they depend. ||||||||||||||||||||||непреднамеренно|||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||gens||||||||| |||||||||||||||||effects on||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||inadvertidamente|||||||| And in the case of the Viking Norse, the Vikings inadvertently caused soil erosion and deforestation, which was a particular problem for them because they required forests to make charcoal, to make iron. |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||древесный уголь||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||charbon de bois||| ||||||Norse seafarers|||||||soil degradation||forest clearing||||||||||||||burnt wood residue||| |||||||nórdica||||||||||||||||||||||carvão vegetal||| ||||||Wikinger|||||||||Abholzung||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||土壤侵蚀||||||||||||||||木炭||| ||||||||||||suelo||||||||||||||bosques|||||| バイキング ノース人の場合、バイキングは不注意に土壌侵食と森林伐採を引き起こしました。これは彼らにとって特に問題でした。木炭や鉄を作るために森林が必要だったからです。 So they ended up an Iron Age European society, virtually unable to make their own iron. |他们|||||||||||||| Donc|||||||||pratiquement|||||| ||terminaron||||||||||||| |||||||||практически|||||| そのため、彼らは事実上、独自の鉄を作ることができない鉄器時代のヨーロッパ社会に行き着きました。 A second item on my checklist is climate change. Climate can get warmer or colder or dryer or wetter. Climat||||||||| |||||||||more rainy |||||||||mais úmido In the case of the Vikings -- in Greenland, the climate got colder in the late 1300s, and especially in the 1400s. Dans le cas des Vikings - au Groenland, le climat est devenu plus froid à la fin des années 1300, et en particulier dans les années 1400. But a cold climate isn’t necessarily fatal, because the Inuit -- the Eskimos inhabiting Greenland at the same time -- did better, rather than worse, with cold climates. |||||||||инуиты|||||||||||||||| |||||||||||Eskimos (Inuit)|bewohnenden||||||||||||| |||||||||Indigenous Arctic people|||||||||||||||| |||||||||Inuítes|||habitando||||||||||||| Но холодный климат не обязательно фатальный, потому что инуиты - эскимосы, населяющие Гренландию в то же время, - лучше, а не хуже, с холодным климатом. So why didn’t the Greenland Norse as well? The third thing on my checklist is relations with neighboring friendly societies that may prop up a society. |||||||||||友好社团|||||| ||||||||||||qui||soutenir||| ||||||||||||||stützen||| ||||||||||||||apoie||| Der dritte Punkt auf meiner Checkliste sind die Beziehungen zu benachbarten befreundeten Gesellschaften, die eine Gesellschaft stützen können. El tercer punto de mi lista son las relaciones con las sociedades amigas vecinas que puedan apuntalar una sociedad.

And if that friendly support is pulled away, that may make a society more likely to collapse. In the case of the Greenland Norse, they had trade with the mother country -- Norway -- and that trade dwindled: partly because Norway got weaker, partly because of sea ice between Greenland and Norway. ||||||||||||||||||сократился|||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||et|||diminué|||||||||||||| ||||||nórdica groenlandesa||||||||||||diminuía|em parte||||mais fraca||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||schwand|||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||减少了|||||||||||||| |||||||||comercio||||||||||||||||||||||| Dans le cas des Scandinaves du Groenland, ils avaient des échanges avec la mère patrie - la Norvège - et ce commerce a diminué: en partie parce que la Norvège s'est affaiblie, en partie à cause de la glace de mer entre le Groenland et la Norvège. The fourth item on my checklist is relations with hostile societies.

In the case of Norse Greenland, the hostiles were the Inuit -- the Eskimos sharing Greenland -- with whom the Norse got off to bad relationships. |||||||敌对者|||||||格陵兰||||||||| |||||||Feindseligen|||||||||||||||| |||||||enemy groups|||||||||||||||| ||||||||||os Inuit||||||||||||| En el caso de la Groenlandia nórdica, los hostiles eran los inuit -los esquimales que comparten Groenlandia-, con quienes los nórdicos entablaron malas relaciones. Dans le cas du Groenland nordique, les hostiles étaient les Inuits - les Esquimaux qui se partagent le Groenland - avec lesquels les Nordiques ont eu de mauvaises relations. 在诺斯格林兰的案例中,敌对者是因纽特人——与诺斯人关系不良的格林兰埃斯基摩人。 And we know that the Inuit killed the Norse and, probably of greater importance, may have blocked access to the outer fjords, on which the Norse depended for seals at a critical time of the year. |||||||||||||||||||||峡湾|||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Robben||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||focas||||||| ||||||||||probablemente||||||||||||||||||||||||| Y sabemos que los inuit mataron a los nórdicos y, lo que es probablemente más importante, pueden haber bloqueado el acceso a los fiordos exteriores, de los que los nórdicos dependían para conseguir focas en una época crítica del año. Nous savons également que les Inuits ont tué les Nordiques et, ce qui est probablement plus important, qu'ils ont bloqué l'accès aux fjords extérieurs, dont les Nordiques dépendaient pour l'approvisionnement en phoques à une période critique de l'année. 我们知道因纽特人杀死了诺斯人,可能更为重要的是,他们可能封锁了外海峡的通道,而诺斯人在一年中的关键时刻依赖这些通道捕捞海豹。 And then finally, the fifth item on my checklist is the political, economic, social and cultural factors in the society that make it more or less likely that the society will perceive and solve its environmental problems. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||这个|||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||ambientales| Enfin, le cinquième point de ma liste de contrôle concerne les facteurs politiques, économiques, sociaux et culturels de la société qui rendent plus ou moins probable la perception et la résolution des problèmes environnementaux par la société. 最后,我清单上的第五项是社会中的政治、经济、社会和文化因素,使其更有可能或不太可能识别和解决环境问题。

In the case of the Greenland Norse, cultural factors that made it difficult for them to solve their problems were: their commitments to a Christian society investing heavily in cathedrals; their being a competitive-ranked chiefly society; and their scorn for the Inuit, from whom they refused to learn. |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||презрение к||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||société chrétienne|||||leurs|leur statut de||||||et||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||compromissos||||||||||||||||||desdém pelos||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Kathedralen||||||vornehmlich||||Verachtung für||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||주로||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||承诺||||||||大教堂||||竞争性的||主要||||蔑视||||||||| Dans le cas des Scandinaves du Groenland, les facteurs culturels qui ont rendu difficile pour eux de résoudre leurs problèmes étaient: leurs engagements envers une société chrétienne investissant massivement dans les cathédrales; leur être une société majoritairement compétitive; et leur mépris pour les Inuits, dont ils ont refusé d'apprendre. В случае с Гренландским скандинавским культурным фактором, затрудняющим решение их проблем, были: их обязательства перед христианским обществом, активно инвестирующим в соборы; их принадлежность к основному обществу в конкурентной борьбе; и их презрение к инуитам, от которых они отказались учиться. 对于格林兰诺斯人来说,导致他们难以解决问题的文化因素包括:他们致力于一个重视大教堂的基督教社会;他们是一个竞争级别的酋长社会;以及他们对因纽特人的蔑视,拒绝向其学习。 So that’s how the five-part framework is relevant to the collapse and eventual extinction of the Greenland Norse. |||||||||||||最终||||| |||||||||||||endgültige||||| ||||||프레임워크|||||||||||| 所以这就是五部分框架与格林兰诺斯人的崩溃和最终灭绝的相关性。 What about a society today? 那么今天的社会呢?

For the past five years, I’ve been taking my wife and kids to Southwestern Montana, where I worked as a teenager on the hay harvest. ||||||||||||||蒙大拿州西南部|||||||||干草| ||||||||||||||||||||||||colheita Desde hace cinco años, llevo a mi mujer y a mis hijos al suroeste de Montana, donde trabajé de adolescente en la siega del heno. Depuis cinq ans, j'emmène ma femme et mes enfants dans le sud-ouest du Montana, où j'ai travaillé adolescent à la récolte du foin. And Montana, at first sight, seems like the most pristine environment in the United States. |||||||||нетронутая||||| |||||semble||||immaculé||||| |Montana||||||||unberührte||||| |||||||||intocada||||| |||||||||原始纯净||||| Et le Montana, à première vue, semble être l'environnement le plus vierge des États-Unis. И Монтана, на первый взгляд, кажется самой нетронутой средой в Соединенных Штатах. But scratch the surface, and Montana suffers from serious problems. ||||||leidet unter||| |risque|||||||| しかし、表面をなぞるだけで、モンタナは深刻な問題に苦しんでいます。 Going through the same checklist: human environmental impacts? Пройдя один и тот же контрольный список: воздействие человека на окружающую среду? Yes, acute in Montana. |Да, острый в Монтане.|| Oui|aiguë|| |尖锐的|| Oui, aiguë dans le Montana. Toxic problems from mine waste have caused damage of billions of dollars. toxiques||||||||||| |||||||||miles de millones|| Los problemas tóxicos de los residuos mineros han causado daños de miles de millones de dólares. Les problèmes toxiques des déchets miniers ont causé des dommages de plusieurs milliards de dollars. Problems from weeds, weed control, cost Montana nearly 200 million dollars a year. ||杂草||||||||| |||mauvaises herbes|||||||| ||Unkräuter||||||||| ||as ervas daninhas||||||||| Los problemas derivados de las malas hierbas y su control cuestan a Montana casi 200 millones de dólares al año. Les problèmes liés aux mauvaises herbes, au contrôle des mauvaises herbes, coûtent au Montana près de 200 millions de dollars par an. Montana has lost agricultural areas from salinization, problems of forest management, problems of forest fires. ||||||盐碱化|||||||| ||||||Versalzung|||||||| ||||||salt accumulation|||||||| ||||||salinização do solo||||||||incêndios florestais ||||||солонцевание|||||||| Монтана потеряла сельскохозяйственные угодья от засоления, проблемы лесопользования, проблемы лесных пожаров. Second item on my checklist: climate change. |||||clima| Yes -- the climate in Montana is getting warmer and drier, but Montana agriculture depends especially on irrigation from the snow pack, and as the snow is melting -- for example, as the glaciers in Glacier National Park are disappearing -- that’s bad news for Montana irrigation agriculture. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||agriculture irriguée ||||||||||||||||Bewässerung|||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||ice formations||||||||||||| |||||||||||Montana||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||mais quente||mais seco|||||||||||||||||derretendo-se|||||||||||||||||| Third thing on my checklist: relations with friendlies that can sustain the society. |||||||友好人士||||| |||||||Freundschaftsbeziehungen||||| |||||||allied groups||||| ||||||com|os aliados||||| Tercera cosa en mi lista: relaciones con amigos que puedan sostener la sociedad. Troisième chose sur ma liste de contrôle: les relations avec des amis qui peuvent soutenir la société. Третья вещь в моем контрольном списке: отношения с товарищескими товарищами, которые могут поддерживать общество.

In Montana today, more than half of the income of Montana is not earned within Montana, but is derived from out of state: transfer payments from social security, investments and so on --which makes Montana vulnerable to the rest of the United States. |||||||||||||auferida|||||derivada|||||||||||||||||||||||| Aujourd'hui, plus de la moitié des revenus du Montana ne sont pas gagnés dans le Montana, mais proviennent de l'extérieur de l'État : paiements de transfert de la sécurité sociale, investissements, etc. Fourth: relations with hostiles.

Montanans have the same problems as do all Americans, in being sensitive to problems created by hostiles overseas affecting our oil supplies, and terrorist attacks. Montana-Bewohner|||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||no exterior||||||| Die Montanesen haben die gleichen Probleme wie alle Amerikaner, wenn es darum geht, auf Probleme zu reagieren, die durch Feinde im Ausland, die unsere Ölversorgung beeinträchtigen, und durch Terroranschläge entstehen. Les Montanais, comme tous les Américains, sont sensibles aux problèmes créés par les hostiles à l'étranger qui affectent nos approvisionnements en pétrole et les attaques terroristes. And finally, last item on my checklist: question of how political, economic, social, cultural attitudes play into this. ||||||||||||sociales|||||esto (1) И, наконец, последний пункт в моем контрольном списке: вопрос о том, как политические, экономические, социальные, культурные отношения играют в этом. Montanans have long-held values, which today seem to be getting in the way of their solving their own problems. ||长期||||||||||||||||| Les Montanais ont des valeurs anciennes, qui semblent aujourd'hui les empêcher de résoudre leurs propres problèmes. Монтаны имеют давние ценности, которые сегодня, похоже, мешают решению их собственных проблем. Long-held devotion to logging and to mines and to agriculture, and to no government regulation; values that worked well in the past, but they don’t seem to be working well today. ||奉献||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Longue||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||a exploração||||||agricultura||||||||||||||||||||| Una larga devoción a la tala de árboles, a las minas, a la agricultura y a la no regulación gubernamental; valores que funcionaron bien en el pasado, pero que no parecen funcionar bien hoy en día. Un dévouement de longue date à l'exploitation forestière, aux mines et à l'agriculture, et à l'absence de réglementation gouvernementale; des valeurs qui ont bien fonctionné dans le passé, mais qui ne semblent pas bien fonctionner aujourd'hui. So, I’m looking at these issues of collapses for a lot of past societies and for many present societies. J'étudie donc ces questions d'effondrement pour un grand nombre de sociétés passées et présentes. Итак, я рассматриваю эти проблемы краха для многих прошлых обществ и для многих современных обществ.

Are there any general conclusions that arise? Gibt es allgemeine Schlussfolgerungen, die sich daraus ergeben? Существуют ли какие-либо общие выводы? In a way, just like Tolstoy’s statement about every unhappy marriage being different, every collapsed or endangered society is different -- they all have different details. |||||Толстого||||||||||||||||||| |||||Tolstois||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||ameaçada|||||||| ||||||||||||diferente||||en peligro|||||||| So wie Tolstoi sagte, dass jede unglückliche Ehe anders ist, ist auch jede zusammengebrochene oder gefährdete Gesellschaft anders - sie alle haben unterschiedliche Details. D'une certaine manière, à l'instar de la déclaration de Tolstoï selon laquelle chaque mariage malheureux est différent, chaque société effondrée ou en voie de disparition est différente - elles présentent toutes des détails différents. But nevertheless, there are certain common threads that emerge from these comparisons of past societies that did or did not collapse and threatened societies today. ||||||线索||||||||||||||崩溃|||| |não obstante||||||||||||||||||||||| |sin embargo|||||hilos comunes||||||||||||||||amenazadas|| Dennoch gibt es bestimmte Gemeinsamkeiten, die sich aus diesen Vergleichen zwischen vergangenen Gesellschaften, die zusammengebrochen sind oder nicht, und bedrohten Gesellschaften heute ergeben. Néanmoins, certains points communs ressortent de ces comparaisons entre les sociétés du passé qui se sont effondrées ou non et les sociétés menacées d'aujourd'hui. Но, тем не менее, есть некоторые общие темы, которые вытекают из этих сравнений прошлых обществ, которые сегодня не разрушали и не угрожали обществам. One interesting common thread has to do with, in many cases, the rapidity of collapse after a society reaches its peak. ||||||||||||迅速性|||||||| ||||||||||||Schnelligkeit|||||||| ||||||||||||rapidez||||||||ápice |||hilo conductor||||||||||||||||| Un point commun intéressant concerne, dans de nombreux cas, la rapidité de l'effondrement d'une société après son apogée. Один интересный общий поток связан, во многих случаях, с быстротой краха после того, как общество достигло своего пика. There are many societies that don’t wind down gradually, but they build up -- get richer and more powerful -- and then within a short time, within a few decades after their peak, they collapse. ||||||desmoronam|||||||||||||||||||||||||| Hay muchas sociedades que no se disuelven gradualmente, sino que crecen, se enriquecen y se hacen más poderosas, y luego, en poco tiempo, pocas décadas después de su apogeo, se hunden. De nombreuses sociétés ne s'éteignent pas progressivement, mais se développent, deviennent plus riches et plus puissantes, puis s'effondrent en peu de temps, quelques décennies après leur apogée. Есть много обществ, которые не опускаются постепенно, но они растут - становятся все богаче и мощнее, а затем в течение короткого времени, в течение нескольких десятилетий после их пика, они рушатся. For example, the classic lowland Maya of the Yucatan began to collapse in the early 800s -- literally a few decades after the Maya were building their biggest monuments, and Maya population was greatest. ||||低地地区|||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||Tiefland|||||||||||||||||||||||Denkmäler||||| ||||baixa|||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Par exemple, les Mayas classiques des basses terres du Yucatan ont commencé à s'effondrer au début des années 800, soit quelques décennies après que les Mayas aient construit leurs plus grands monuments et que la population maya ait été la plus nombreuse. Or again, the collapse of the Soviet Union took place within a couple of decades, maybe within a decade, of the time when the Soviet Union was at its greatest power. ||||||苏联|||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||soviético||||||||décadas||||||||||||||||

An analogue would be the growth of bacteria in a petri dish. |类似情况|||||||||培养皿| |Ein Analogon|||||||||| ||||||||||petrificada| ||verbo auxiliar||||||||| ||||||||||петри чашке| Ein Analogon wäre das Wachstum von Bakterien in einer Petrischale. Un análogo sería el crecimiento de bacterias en una placa de Petri. Une analogie serait la croissance de bactéries dans une boîte de Petri. Аналогом будет рост бактерий в чашке Петри. These rapid collapses are especially likely where there’s a mismatch between available resources and resource consumption, or a mismatch between economic outlays and economic potential. |||||||||||||||||||||расходы||| |||||||||||||||||||||expenditures||| |||||||||desajuste|||||||||descompasso|||despesas||| |||||||||Ungleichgewicht||||||||||||Ausgaben||| |||||||||不匹配||||||||||||支出||| |||||probables||||||||||||||||||| Ces effondrements rapides sont particulièrement probables lorsqu'il y a une inadéquation entre les ressources disponibles et la consommation des ressources, ou une inadéquation entre les dépenses économiques et le potentiel économique. In a petri dish, bacteria grow. ||петри||| Dans une boîte de Petri, des bactéries se développent. В чашке Петри бактерии растут. Say they double every generation, and five generations before the end the petri dish is 15/16ths empty, and then the next generation’s 3/4ths empty, and the next generation half empty. ||||||||||||培养皿||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||Generation|||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||vazia||||||vazia ||doblan||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Supposons qu'ils doublent à chaque génération et que, cinq générations avant la fin, la boîte de Petri soit vide aux 15/16, puis aux 3/4 à la génération suivante et à la moitié à la génération suivante. Within one generation after the petri dish still being half empty, it is full. |||||培养皿|||||||| En l'espace d'une génération, après avoir été à moitié vide, la boîte de Petri est pleine. В течение одного поколения после того, как чашка Петри все еще наполовину пуста, она заполнена. There’s no more food and the bacteria have collapsed. Больше нет еды, и бактерии рухнули. So, this is a frequent theme: societies collapse very soon after reaching their peak in power. ||||fréquent|||||||atteindre|||| |||||tema|||||||||| What it means to put it mathematically is that, if you’re concerned about a society today, you should be looking not at the value of the mathematical function -- the wealth itself -- but you should be looking at the first derivative and the second derivatives of the function. ||||||数学上|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||导数||||导数||| Ce que|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Ableitung||||Ableitungen||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||función matemática ||||||matematicamente|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||a derivada||||||| D'un point de vue mathématique, cela signifie que si l'on se préoccupe d'une société aujourd'hui, il faut s'intéresser non pas à la valeur de la fonction mathématique - la richesse elle-même - mais à la dérivée première et à la dérivée seconde de la fonction. 用数学表达的意思是,如果你关心今天的社会,你应该关注的不是数学函数的值——财富本身——而是该函数的一阶导数和二阶导数。

That’s one general theme. 那是||| Это одна общая тема. 这是一个普遍主题。 A second general theme is that there are many, often subtle environmental factors that make some societies more fragile than others. ||||||||||sutis|||||||||| |||||||hay||||||||||||| 第二个普遍主题是,有许多通常微妙的环境因素使某些社会比其他社会更加脆弱。 Many of those factors are not well understood. Многие из этих факторов не совсем понятны. For example, why is it that in the Pacific, of those hundreds of Pacific islands, why did Easter Island end up as the most devastating case of complete deforestation? Par exemple, comment se fait-il que dans le Pacifique, parmi les centaines d'îles du Pacifique, l'île de Pâques soit devenue le cas le plus dévastateur de déforestation totale ? 例如,为什么在太平洋地区数百个太平洋岛屿中,复活节岛会成为最严重的完全森林砍伐案例? It turns out that there were about nine different environmental factors -- some, rather subtle ones -- that were working against the Easter Islanders, and they involve fallout of volcanic tephra, latitude, rainfall. |||||||||||||||||||||||||辐射沉降|||火山灰尘|| |||||||||||||||||||||||||Niederschlag|||vulkanische Tephra|Breitengrad| |||||||||||||||||||||||||deposição de tefra||vulcânica|tefra vulcânica||precipitação pluviométrica ||||||||||factores||bastante|||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||осадки|||тефра|| Il s'avère qu'il y avait environ neuf facteurs environnementaux différents - certains, plutôt subtils - qui travaillaient contre les insulaires de Pâques, et ils impliquent des retombées de téphra volcanique, de latitude et de précipitations. 事实证明,有大约九种不同的环境因素——其中一些相当微妙——对复活节岛民造成了影响,这些因素包括火山灰的沉降、纬度和降雨量。 Perhaps the most subtle of them is that it turns out that a major input of nutrients which protects island environments in the Pacific is from the fallout of continental dust from central Asia. |||||||||||||||||||||||||||осадки|||||| ||||||||||||||||Nährstoffe||||||||||||||||| Quizá la más sutil de ellas es que resulta que una importante aportación de nutrientes que protege los entornos insulares del Pacífico procede de la lluvia radiactiva de polvo continental procedente de Asia central. La plus subtile d'entre elles est peut-être qu'il s'avère qu'un apport majeur de nutriments protégeant les environnements insulaires du Pacifique provient des retombées de poussières continentales en provenance d'Asie centrale. 也许最微妙的因素是,来自中亚的大陆尘埃沉降提供了保护太平洋岛屿环境的主要营养来源。 Easter, of all Pacific islands, has the least input of dust from Asia restoring the fertility of its soils. ||||||||||||||||||土壤肥力 |||||||||||||wiederherstellend||Fruchtbarkeit|||Böden Páscoa|||||tem||||||||||||| Pâques, de toutes les îles du Pacifique, a le moins d'apport de poussière d'Asie pour restaurer la fertilité de ses sols. 复活节岛,所有太平洋岛屿中,从亚洲输入的灰尘最少,恢复了其土壤的肥力。 But that’s a factor that we didn’t even appreciate until 1999. 但这是一个我们直到1999年才意识到的因素。 So, some societies, for subtle environmental reasons, are more fragile than others. |||||||||frágeis|| Таким образом, некоторые общества по тонким экологическим причинам более хрупкие, чем другие. 所以,一些社会由于微妙的环境原因,比其他社会更脆弱。

And then finally, another generalization. ||||概括 |||otra| 然后最后,另一个概括。 I’m now teaching a course at UCLA, to UCLA undergraduates, on these collapses of societies. ||||||加州大学洛杉矶分校|||||||| ||||||UCLA|||Studierende||||| |||||||||os alunos de graduação||||| ||||||||Калифорнийский|||||| 我现在在加州大学洛杉矶分校教授一门关于社会崩溃的课程,面向洛杉矶分校的本科生。 What really bugs my UCLA undergraduate students is, how on earth did these societies not see what they were doing? ||беспокоит||||||||||||||||| |||||Student im Grundstudium|||||||||||||| ||incomoda||||||||||||||||| ||molesta||||||||||||||||| ||||加州大学洛杉矶分校||||||||||||||| Lo que realmente molesta a mis estudiantes de licenciatura de la UCLA es, ¿cómo demonios no se dieron cuenta estas sociedades de lo que estaban haciendo? Ce qui dérange vraiment mes étudiants de premier cycle de l'UCLA, c'est de savoir comment ces sociétés ont pu ne pas se rendre compte de ce qu'elles faisaient. Что действительно сказывается на моих студентах-студентах UCLA, как же эти общества не видели, что они делают? 让我洛杉矶分校的本科生感到困惑的是,这些社会到底是怎么没有意识到他们在做什么的? How could the Easter Islanders have deforested their environment? ||||||砍伐森林|| ||||||abgeholzt|| ||||||cleared of trees|| ||||||desmatado|| Как жители островов Пасхи обезобрадили свою среду? 复活节岛的岛民是如何砍伐他们的环境的? What did they say when they were cutting down the last palm tree? ¿Qué decían cuando talaban la última palmera? 他们在砍倒最后一棵棕榈树时说了什么? Didn’t they see what they were doing? 他们难道看不到自己在做什么吗? How could societies not perceive their impacts on the environments and stop in time? And I would expect that, if our human civilization carries on, then maybe in the next century people will be asking, why on earth did these people today in the year 2003 not see the obvious things that they were doing and take corrective action? ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||在||||||||||||||纠正的| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||korrigierende Maßnahmen| |||||||||||||||||||verbo auxiliar|||||||||||||||||||||||| |||esperaria||||||continua|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Et je m'attends à ce que, si notre civilisation humaine se poursuit, au cours du siècle prochain, les gens se demanderont peut-être pourquoi diable ces personnes, aujourd'hui en 2003, n'ont pas vu les choses évidentes qu'elles faisaient et n'ont pas pris de mesures correctives. It seems incredible in the past. 在过去,这似乎令人难以置信。 In the future, it’ll seem incredible what we are doing today. ||||parecerá|||||| 在未来,我们今天所做的事情将显得不可思议。 And so I’ve been trying to develop a hierarchical set of considerations about why societies fail to solve their problems -- why they fail to perceive the problems or, if they perceive them, why they fail to tackle them. ||||||||层级的||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Por eso he intentado desarrollar un conjunto jerárquico de consideraciones sobre por qué las sociedades no resuelven sus problemas: por qué no perciben los problemas o, si los perciben, por qué no los abordan. 因此,我一直试图建立一个关于为什么社会无法解决其问题的层次性考虑 -- 为什么他们无法意识到这些问题,或者如果他们意识到这些问题,为什么又无法应对它们。 Or, if they tackle them, why do they fail to succeed in solving them? |||abordam|||||||||| Ou, s'ils les abordent, pourquoi ne parviennent-ils pas à les résoudre? I’ll just mention two generalizations in this area. ||||Verallgemeinerungen||| Я просто упомянул два обобщения в этой области.

One blueprint for trouble, making collapse likely, is where there is a conflict of interest between the short-term interest of the decision-making elites and the long-term interest of the society as a whole, especially if the elites are able to insulate themselves from the consequences of their actions. |蓝图|||||||||||||||||||||||精英阶层|||||||||||||||||||隔离||||||| |Bauplan||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||abschirmen von||||||| ||||||probable|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |plano diretor|||||||||||||||||||||||as elites|||||||||||||||||||isolar-se||||||| Uno de los factores que pueden causar problemas y hacer probable el colapso es el conflicto de intereses entre los intereses a corto plazo de las élites que toman las decisiones y los intereses a largo plazo de la sociedad en su conjunto, especialmente si las élites son capaces de aislarse de las consecuencias de sus acciones. Un modèle de problème, qui rend l'effondrement probable, est celui où il y a un conflit d'intérêt entre l'intérêt à court terme des élites décisionnaires et l'intérêt à long terme de la société dans son ensemble, surtout si les élites sont capables de s'isoler. des conséquences de leurs actes. Один из проблем для беды, вероятный коллапс, заключается в том, что существует конфликт интересов между краткосрочными интересами элиты принятия решений и долгосрочными интересами общества в целом, особенно если элиты могут изолировать себя от последствий их действий. 造成麻烦的一种蓝图是,当决策精英的短期利益与整个社会的长期利益发生冲突时,尤其是当精英能够使自己免受其行为后果时,这种情况使崩溃变得可能。 Where what’s good in the short run for the elite is bad for the society as a whole, there’s a real risk of the elite doing things that would bring the society down in the long run. |||||||||精英||||||||||||||||||||||||||| Где то, что хорошо в краткосрочной перспективе для элиты, плохо для общества в целом, существует реальная опасность того, что элита будет делать то, что приведет общество в конечном итоге. 当精英在短期内的利益对整个社会有害时,精英们很可能会做出长期损害社会的事情,风险非常真实。 For example, among the Greenland Norse -- a competitive rank society -- what the chiefs really wanted is more followers and more sheep and more resources to outcompete the neighboring chiefs. ||||||||||||首领|||||||||||||击败竞争者||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||übertreffen||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||surpass||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||superar os chefes||| |||||||||||||||||последователей|||овец|||||обойти соперников||| Например, среди гренландских скандинавов — конкурентного общества высокого ранга — настоящее желание вождей заключалось в увеличении числа последователей, овец и ресурсов для превосходства над соседними вождями. 例如,在格林兰的挪威人中——一个竞争等级社会——首领真正想要的是更多的追随者、更多的绵羊和更多的资源,以超越邻近的首领。 And that led the chiefs to do what’s called flogging the land: overstocking the land, forcing tenant farmers into dependency. ||||首领们|||||掠夺土地|||过度放牧|||||||依赖性 |||||||||Bodenverpachtung|||Überweidung||||Pächter||| ||||||||||||excessive livestock grazing||||||| |||||||||exploração da terra|||superabastecimento||||||| |||||||||эксплуатация земли|||чрезмерный выпас скота||||арендаторы||| Y eso llevó a los jefes a hacer lo que se llama azotar la tierra: repoblarla en exceso, obligando a los campesinos arrendatarios a depender de ella. Et cela a conduit les chefs à faire ce qu'on appelle fouetter la terre: surstocker la terre, obliger les fermiers à devenir dépendants. Это заставило вождей предпринимать так называемое злоупотребление землей: переполнение земель, вынуждая арендных фермеров стать зависимыми. 这导致酋长们采取了所谓的徭役制度:过度开发土地,迫使佃农依赖。 And that made the chiefs powerful in the short run, but led to the society’s collapse in the long run. ||||||||||||||社会的||||| Это сделало вождей могущественными на короткой дистанции, но привело к краху общества в долгосрочной перспективе. 这在短期内使酋长们变得强大,但从长远来看却导致了社会的崩溃。 Those same issues of conflicts of interest are acute in the United States today. ||||||||острыми||||| 这些利益冲突的问题在今天的美国依然存在。

Especially because the decision makers in the United States are frequently able to insulate themselves from consequences by living in gated compounds, by drinking bottled water and so on. ||||决策者||||||||||||||||封闭式|||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||abgeschotteten||||abgefülltes Wasser|||| |||||||||||||||||||||||beber||||| ||||||||||||||||||||fechados|||||||| Sobre todo porque los que toman las decisiones en Estados Unidos a menudo pueden aislarse de las consecuencias viviendo en complejos cerrados, bebiendo agua embotellada, etc. D'autant plus que les décideurs aux États-Unis sont souvent en mesure de s'isoler des conséquences en vivant dans des complexes fermés, en buvant de l'eau en bouteille, etc. 特别是因为美国的决策者常常能够通过居住在有门卫的社区、喝瓶装水等方式来使自己免于后果。 And within the last couple of years, it’s been obvious that the elite in the business world correctly perceive that they can advance their short-term interest by doing things that are good for them but bad for society as a whole, such as draining a few billion dollars out of Enron and other businesses. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||выводя средства|||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||drenando|||||||||| ||||||||||||élite|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||安然公司||| Y en el último par de años, ha sido obvio que la élite del mundo empresarial percibe correctamente que puede promover sus intereses a corto plazo haciendo cosas que son buenas para ellos pero malas para la sociedad en su conjunto, como sacar unos cuantos miles de millones de dólares de Enron y otras empresas. Au cours des deux dernières années, il est apparu clairement que l'élite du monde des affaires perçoit à juste titre qu'elle peut promouvoir ses intérêts à court terme en faisant des choses qui sont bonnes pour elle mais mauvaises pour la société dans son ensemble, telles que l'extraction de quelques milliards de dollars d'Enron et d'autres entreprises. И в течение последних нескольких лет было очевидно, что элита в деловом мире правильно воспринимает, что они могут продвигать свой краткосрочный интерес, делая то, что хорошо для них, но плохо для общества в целом, например, миллиард долларов из Enron и других предприятий. 在过去的几年里,商界精英明显意识到,他们可以通过做一些对自己有利但对整个社会有害的事情,例如从安然公司和其他企业抽走数十亿美元,来推动他们的短期利益。 They are quite correct that these things are good for them in the short term, although bad for society in the long term. Tienen toda la razón en que estas cosas son buenas para ellos a corto plazo, aunque malas para la sociedad a largo plazo. 他们完全正确地认为,这些事情在短期内对他们有利,尽管从长期来看对社会有害。 So, that’s one general conclusion about why societies make bad decisions: conflicts of interest. And the other generalization that I want to mention is that it’s particularly hard for a society to make quote-unquote good decisions when there is a conflict involving strongly held values that are good in many circumstances but are poor in other circumstances. |||||||||||||||||||所谓的|所谓的||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||mantidas|||||||circunstâncias|||||| |||||||||||||||||||||buenas decisiones|||||||||||||||||||||| Y la otra generalización que quiero mencionar es que es particularmente difícil para una sociedad tomar buenas decisiones, entre comillas, cuando hay un conflicto que implica valores fuertemente arraigados que son buenos en muchas circunstancias, pero son pobres en otras circunstancias. Et l'autre généralisation que je veux mentionner est qu'il est particulièrement difficile pour une société de prendre de bonnes décisions entre guillemets quand il y a un conflit impliquant des valeurs fermement ancrées qui sont bonnes dans de nombreuses circonstances, mais médiocres dans d'autres circonstances. И другое обобщение, о котором я хочу упомянуть, состоит в том, что для общества особенно сложно сделать правильные решения с цитатами - безоговорочными, когда есть конфликт, в котором используются сильно удерживаемые ценности, которые хороши во многих обстоятельствах, но являются бедными в других обстоятельствах. 我想提到的另一个概括是,当社会面临涉及强烈信仰的价值观冲突时,做出所谓的好决定是特别困难的。这些价值观在很多情况下是好的,但在其他情况下却很糟糕。

For example, the Greenland Norse, in this difficult environment, were held together for four-and-a-half centuries by their shared commitment to religion, and by their strong social cohesion. |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||социальное единство |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||社会凝聚力 Par exemple, dans cet environnement difficile, les Nordiques du Groenland sont restés unis pendant quatre siècles et demi grâce à leur engagement commun envers la religion et à leur forte cohésion sociale. Например, гренландские норвежцы в этой сложной обстановке держались вместе в течение четырех с половиной веков благодаря своей общей приверженности религии и их сильной социальной сплоченности. 例如,在这个艰难的环境中,格林兰的诺斯人凭借共同的宗教信仰和强大的社会凝聚力维持了四个半世纪的团结。 But those two things -- commitment to religion and strong social cohesion -- also made it difficult for them to change at the end and to learn from the Inuit. ||||||||||凝聚力||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||Inuit 但这两者——对宗教的承诺和强大的社会凝聚力——也使得他们在最后时刻难以改变,并从因纽特人那里学习。 Or today -- Australia. One of the things that enabled Australia to survive in this remote outpost of European civilization for 250 years has been their British identity. ||||||||||||前哨基地|||||||||| |||||permitió que||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||передовой пост|||||||||| L'une des choses qui a permis à l'Australie de survivre dans cet avant-poste isolé de la civilisation européenne pendant 250 ans, c'est son identité britannique. 让澳大利亚在这个遥远的欧洲文明前哨生存250年的原因之一是他们的英国身份。 But today, their commitment to a British identity is serving Australians poorly in their need to adapt to their situation in Asia. |||||||||||糟糕地|||||||||| 但今天,他们对英国身份的承诺在他们适应亚洲局势的需求上对澳大利亚人来说是一个负担。 So it’s particularly difficult to change course when the things that get you in trouble are the things that are also the source of your strength. 所以|||||||||||||||||||||||||优势 ||||||dirección||||||||||||||||||| Il est donc particulièrement difficile de changer de cap lorsque les choses qui vous mettent en difficulté sont aussi celles qui font votre force. 因此,当让你陷入困境的事情也是你力量来源时,改变方向就特别困难。 What’s going to be the outcome today? |||||resultado| |||||resultado| Quel sera le résultat aujourd'hui? Что будет сегодня результатом? 今天的结果会是什么?

Well, all of us know the dozen sorts of ticking time bombs going on in the modern world, time bombs that have fuses of a few decades to -- all of them, not more than 50 years, and any one of which can do us in; the time bombs of water, of soil, of climate change, invasive species, the photosynthetic ceiling, population problems, toxics, etc., etc. ||||||||||||||||||||||запалы||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||Zündschnüre||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||invasive Arten|||photosynthetische Grenze||||Giftstoffe|| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||harmful non-native||||||||| |||||||||relógios|||||||||||||estopas||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||引信||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||入侵性|||光合作用的||||有毒物质|| Pues bien, todos conocemos la docena de bombas de relojería que están en marcha en el mundo moderno, bombas de relojería que tienen espoletas de unas pocas décadas a -- todas ellas, no más de 50 años, y cualquiera de las cuales puede acabar con nosotros; las bombas de relojería del agua, del suelo, del cambio climático, de las especies invasoras, del techo fotosintético, de los problemas de población, de los tóxicos, etc., etc. Eh bien, nous connaissons tous les douzaines de sortes de bombes à retardement qui se déroulent dans le monde moderne, des bombes à retardement qui ont des fusibles de quelques décennies à - toutes, pas plus de 50 ans, et chacune d'entre elles peut nous faire. dans; les bombes à retardement de l'eau, du sol, du changement climatique, des espèces envahissantes, du plafond photosynthétique, des problèmes de population, des toxiques, etc., etc. 好吧,我们都知道现代世界有一打种的滴答炸弹,这些炸弹的导火索只有几十年 -- 所有这些,最多不超过50年,而其中任何一个都可能会摧毁我们;水的问题、土壤问题、气候变化、入侵物种、光合天花板、人口问题、有毒物质等等。 -- listing about 12 of them. -- 列出大约12个。 And while these time bombs -- none of them has a fuse beyond 50 years, and most of them have fuses of a few decades -- some of them, in some places, have much shorter fuses. ||||||||||引信|||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||Zündschnur|||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||miccia||||||||fuse|||||||||||||| ||||||||||срок действия|||||||||||||||||||||| Y aunque estas bombas de relojería -ninguna de ellas tiene una espoleta de más de 50 años, y la mayoría de ellas tienen espoletas de unas pocas décadas- algunas de ellas, en algunos lugares, tienen espoletas mucho más cortas. Et si ces bombes à retardement - aucune d'entre elles n'a une durée de vie supérieure à 50 ans, et la plupart d'entre elles ont une durée de vie de quelques décennies - certaines d'entre elles, à certains endroits, ont des durées de vie beaucoup plus courtes. At the rate at which we’re going now, the Philippines will lose all its accessible loggable forest within five years. |||||||||||||||лесозаготовительный|||| |||||||||||||||suitable for logging|||| |||||||||||||||explorável|||| |||||||||||||||abholzbar|||| |||||||||||||||tagliabile|||| |||||||||菲律宾||||||可伐木的|||| Al ritmo al que vamos ahora, Filipinas perderá todos sus bosques talables accesibles en cinco años. Au rythme auquel nous allons actuellement, les Philippines perdront toute leur forêt exploitable accessible d'ici cinq ans. 按照我们现在的速度,菲律宾将在五年内失去所有可砍伐的森林。 And the Solomon Islands are only one year away from losing their loggable forest, which is their major export. ||所罗门|||||||||||||||| ||Salomonen-Inseln|||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||es||| ||Соломоновы|||||||||||||||| 所罗门群岛距离失去可砍伐森林仅有一年,而这正是他们的主要出口。 And that’s going to be spectacular for the economy of the Solomons. |||||壮观的||||||所罗门群岛 |||||||||||Salomonen |||||||||||Соломоновы 这将对所罗门群岛的经济产生巨大影响。 People often ask me,Jared, what’s the most important thing that we need to do about the world’s environmental problems? And my answer is, the most important thing we need to do is to forget about there being any single thing that is the most important thing we need to do. Et ma réponse est que la chose la plus importante que nous devons faire est d'oublier qu'il y a une chose unique qui est la chose la plus importante que nous devons faire. И мой ответ: самое важное, что нам нужно сделать, это забыть о том, что есть какая-то одна вещь, которая является самой важной задачей, которую нам нужно сделать. Instead, there are a dozen things, any one of which could do us in. ||||||任何|||||做|| |hay|||||||||||| 代わりに、何十ものことがあり、そのどれかが私たちを助けることができます. Вместо этого есть дюжина вещей, и любой из нас может нас в этом завести. 相反,有十几件事情,其中任何一件都可能会让我们陷入困境。 And we’ve got to get them all right, because if we solve 11, we fail to solve the 12th -- we’re in trouble. И мы должны их исправить, потому что, если мы разрешим 11, мы не сможем решить 12-е - у нас проблемы. 而我们必须全部解决,因为如果我们解决了11个,但第12个没有解决,那我们就麻烦了。 For example, if we solve our problems of water and soil and population, but don’t solve our problems of toxics, then we are in trouble. 例如,如果我们解决了水、土壤和人口的问题,但没有解决有毒物质的问题,那么我们就会陷入困境。 The fact is that our present course is a non-sustainable course, which means, by definition, that it cannot be maintained. ||||||||||||||||||||维持 ||||||curso||||||||||||||mantenido Le fait est que notre trajectoire actuelle n'est pas durable, ce qui signifie, par définition, qu'elle ne peut être maintenue. Дело в том, что наш нынешний курс - это не устойчивый курс, что означает, по определению, что его нельзя поддерживать.

And the outcome is going to get resolved within a few decades. ||resultado||||||||| И результат будет решен в течение нескольких десятилетий. 结果将在几十年内得到解决。 That means that those of us in this room who are less than 50 or 60 years old will see how these paradoxes are resolved, and those of us who are over the age of 60 may not see the resolution, but our children and grandchildren certainly will. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||孙子|| ||||||||||||||||||||Paradoxe|||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||netos|| Cela signifie que ceux d'entre nous qui ont moins de 50 ou 60 ans verront comment ces paradoxes sont résolus, et ceux d'entre nous qui ont plus de 60 ans ne verront peut-être pas la résolution, mais nos enfants et petits-enfants la verront certainement. 这意味着我们在座的50岁或60岁以下的人将看到这些矛盾是如何解决的,而我们60岁以上的人可能看不到解决方案,但我们的子孙后代肯定会看到。 The resolution is going to achieve either of two forms: either we will resolve these non-sustainable time-fuses in pleasant ways of our own choice by taking remedial action, or else these conflicts are going to get settled in unpleasant ways not of our choice -- namely, by war, disease or starvation. ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||corrective||||||||||||||||||||||| ||||||||||ou||||||||||formas agradáveis||||||||remediadora|||||||||||||||||||||||fome ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||Abhilfemaßnahmen ergreifen||||||||||||||||||||||| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||carestia ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||补救的|||||||||||||||||||||||饥荒 ||||||||||||||||no sostenibles||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| La résolution se fera de deux manières : soit nous résoudrons ces fuseaux temporels non durables de manière agréable, selon notre choix, en prenant des mesures correctives, soit ces conflits seront réglés de manière désagréable, sans que nous l'ayons choisi, c'est-à-dire par la guerre, la maladie ou la famine. 解决方案将以两种形式之一实现:要么我们通过采取补救措施以我们自己选择的愉快方式解决这些不可持续的时间冲突,要么这些冲突将在我们无法选择的不愉快方式下得到解决——也就是说,通过战争、疾病或饥饿。 But what’s for sure is that our non-sustainable course will get resolved in one way or another in a few decades. In other words, since the theme of this session is choices, we have a choice. |||ya que|||||||elecciones|||| En d'autres termes, puisque le thème de cette session est le choix, nous avons le choix. Does that mean that we should get pessimistic and overwhelmed? |||||||||подавлены |||||||||abrumados Cela signifie-t-il que nous devrions être pessimistes et dépassés? Значит ли это, что мы должны стать пессимистами и подавленными? I draw the reverse conclusion. |||相反| |concluyo||| Я делаю обратный вывод. The big problems facing the world today are not at all things beyond our control. Большие проблемы, стоящие перед миром сегодня, вовсе не находятся вне нашего контроля.

Our biggest threat is not an asteroid about to crash into us, something we can do nothing about. ||||||小行星||||||||||| ||||||Asteroid||||||||||| |mayor|amenaza||||||||||||||| Наша самая большая угроза - это не астероид, который должен врезаться в нас, о чем мы ничего не можем сделать. Instead, all the major threats facing us today are problems entirely of our own making. ||||amenazas||||||||||creación humana Вместо этого все основные угрозы, с которыми мы сталкиваемся сегодня, - это проблемы, которые мы делаем сами. And since we made the problems, we can also solve the problems. That then means that it’s entirely in our power to deal with these problems. In particular, what can all of us do? For those of you who are interested in these choices, there are lots of things you can do. There’s a lot that we don’t understand, and that we need to understand. And there’s a lot that we already do understand, but aren’t doing, and that we need to be doing. И есть многое, что мы уже понимаем, но не делаем, и что нам нужно делать. Thank you. |tú (Applause)