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TED Talks, Malcolm Gladwell on spaghetti sauce

Malcolm Gladwell on spaghetti sauce

I think I was supposed to talk about my new book, which is called "Blink," and it's about snap judgments and first impressions.

And it comes out in January, and I hope you all buy it in triplicate. But I was thinking about this, and I realized that although my new book makes me happy, and I think would make my mother happy, it's not really about happiness. So I decided instead, I would talk about someone who I think has done as much to make Americans happy as perhaps anyone over the last 20 years. A man who is a great personal hero of mine. Someone by the name of Howard Moskowitz, who is most famous for reinventing spaghetti sauce. Howard's about this high, and he's round, and he's in his sixties, and he has big huge glasses and thinning grey hair, and he has a kind of wonderful exuberance and vitality, and he has a parrot, and he loves the opera, and he's a great aficionado of medieval history.

And by profession, he's a psychophysicist. Now, I should tell you that I have no idea what psychophysics is, although at some point in my life, I dated a girl for two years who was getting her doctorate in psychophysics. Which should tell you something about that relationship. (Laughter) As far as I know, psychophysics is about measuring things.

And Howard is very interested in measuring things. And he graduated with his doctorate from Harvard, and he set up a little consulting shop in White Plains, New York. And one of his first clients was -- this is many years ago, back in the early '70s -- one of his first clients was Pepsi. And Pepsi came to Howard and they said, "You know, there's this new thing called aspartame, and we would like to make Diet Pepsi. We'd like you to figure out how much aspartame we should put in each can of Diet Pepsi, in order to have the perfect drink." Right? Now that sounds like an incredibly straightforward question to answer, and that's what Howard thought. Because Pepsi told him, "Look, we're working with a band between eight and 12 percent. Anything below eight percent sweetness is not sweet enough, anything above 12 percent sweetness is too sweet. We want to know, what's the sweet spot between eight and 12?" Now, if I gave you this problem to do, you would all say, it's very simple. What we do, is you make up a big experimental batch of Pepsi, at every degree of sweetness -- eight percent, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, all the way up to 12 -- and we try this out with thousands of people, and we plot the results on a curve, and we take the most popular concentration. Right? Really simple. Howard does the experiment, and he gets the data back, and he plots it on a curve, and all of a sudden he realizes it's not a nice bell curve.

In fact, the data doesn't make any sense. It's a mess. It's all over the place. Now, most people in that business, in the world of testing food and such, are not dismayed when the data comes back a mess. They think, well, you know, figuring out what people think about cola's not that easy. You know, maybe we made an error somewhere along the way. You know, let's just make an educated guess, and they simply point and they go for 10 percent, right in the middle. Howard is not so easily placated. Howard is a man of a certain degree of intellectual standards. And this was not good enough for him, and this question bedeviled him for years. And he would think it through and say, what was wrong? Why could we not make sense of this experiment with Diet Pepsi? And one day, he was sitting in a diner in White Plains, about to go trying to dream up some work for NescafE.

And suddenly, like a bolt of lightning, the answer came to him. And that is, that when they analyzed the Diet Pepsi data, they were asking the wrong question. They were looking for the perfect Pepsi, and they should have been looking for the perfect Pepsis. Trust me. This was an enormous revelation. This was one of the most brilliant breakthroughs in all of food science. And Howard immediately went on the road, and he would go to conferences around the country, would stand up and he would say, "You had been looking for the perfect Pepsi. You're wrong. You should be looking for the perfect Pepsis." And people would look at him with a blank look, and they would say, "What are you talking about? This is craziness." And they would say, you know, "Move! Next!" Tried to get business, nobody would hire him -- he was obsessed, though, and he talked about it and talked about it and talked about it. Howard loves the Yiddish expression "to a worm in horseradish, the world is horseradish." This was his horseradish. (Laughter) He was obsessed with it! And finally, he had a breakthrough.

Vlasic Pickles came to him, and they said, "Mr. Moskowitz -- Doctor Moskowitz -- we want to make the perfect pickle." And he said, "There is no perfect pickle, there are only perfect pickles." And he came back to them and he said, "You don't just need to improve your regular, you need to create zesty." And that's where we got zesty pickles. Then the next person came to him, and that was Campbell's Soup. And this was even more important. In fact, Campbell's Soup is where Howard made his reputation. Campbell's made Prego, and Prego, in the early '80s, was struggling next to Ragu, which was the dominant spaghetti sauce of the '70s and '80s. Now in the industry -- I don't know whether you care about this, or how much time I have to go into this. But it was, technically speaking -- this is an aside -- Prego is a better tomato sauce than Ragu. The quality of the tomato paste is much better, the spice mix is far superior, it adheres to the pasta in a much more pleasing way. In fact, they would do the famous bowl test back in the '70s with Ragu and Prego. You'd have a plate of spaghetti, and you would pour it on, right? And the Ragu would all go to the bottom, and the Prego would sit on top. That's called "adherence." And, anyway, despite the fact that they were far superior in adherence, and the quality of their tomato paste, Prego was struggling. So they came to Howard, and they said, fix us.

And Howard looked at their product line, and he said, what you have is a dead tomato society. So he said, this is what I want to do. And he got together with the Campbell's soup kitchen, and he made 45 varieties of spaghetti sauce. And he varied them according to every conceivable way that you can vary tomato sauce. By sweetness, by level of garlic, by tartness, by sourness, by tomatoey-ness, by visible solids -- my favorite term in the spaghetti sauce business. (Laughter) Every conceivable way you can vary spaghetti sauce, he varied spaghetti sauce. And then he took this whole raft of 45 spaghetti sauces, and he went on the road. He went to New York, he went to Chicago, he went to Jacksonville, he went to Los Angeles. And he brought in people by the truckload. Into big halls. And he sat them down for two hours, and he gave them, over the course of that two hours, ten bowls. Ten small bowls of pasta, with a different spaghetti sauce on each one. And after they ate each bowl, they had to rate, from 0 to 100, how good they thought the spaghetti sauce was. At the end of that process, after doing it for months and months, he had a mountain of data about how the American people feel about spaghetti sauce.

And then he analyzed the data. Now, did he look for the most popular brand variety of spaghetti sauce? No! Howard doesn't believe that there is such a thing. Instead, he looked at the data, and he said, let's see if we can group all these different data points into clusters. Let's see if they congregate around certain ideas. And sure enough, if you sit down, and you analyze all this data on spaghetti sauce, you realize that all Americans fall into one of three groups. There are people who like their spaghetti sauce plain, there are people who like their spaghetti sauce spicy and there are people who like it extra chunky. And of those three facts, the third one was the most significant.

Because at the time, in the early 1980s, if you went to a supermarket, you would not find extra-chunky spaghetti sauce. And Prego turned to Howard, and they said, "You telling me that one third of Americans crave extra-chunky spaghetti sauce and yet no one is servicing their needs?" And he said yes! (Laughter) And Prego then went back, and completely reformulated their spaghetti sauce, and came out with a line of extra chunky that immediately and completely took over the spaghetti sauce business in this country. And over the next 10 years, they made 600 million dollars off their line of extra-chunky sauces. And everyone else in the industry looked at what Howard had done, and they said, "Oh my god!

We've been thinking all wrong!" And that's when you started getting seven different kinds of vinegar, and 14 different kinds of mustard, and 71 different kinds of olive oil -- and then eventually even Ragu hired Howard, and Howard did the exact same thing for Ragu that he did for Prego. And today, if you go to the supermarket, a really good one, and you look at how many Ragus there are -- Do you know how many they are? 36! In six varieties: Cheese, Light, Robusto, Rich & Hearty, Old World Traditional, Extra-Chunky Garden. (Laughter) That's Howard's doing. That is Howard's gift to the American people. Now why is that important?

It is, in fact, enormously important. I'll explain to you why. What Howard did is he fundamentally changed the way the food industry thinks about making you happy. Assumption number one in the food industry used to be that the way to find out what people want to eat -- what will make people happy -- is to ask them. And for years and years and years and years, Ragu and Prego would have focus groups, and they would sit all you people down, and they would say, "What do you want in a spaghetti sauce? Tell us what you want in a spaghetti sauce." And for all those years -- 20, 30 years -- through all those focus group sessions, no one ever said they wanted extra-chunky. Even though at least a third of them, deep in their hearts, actually did. (Laughter) People don't know what they want!

Right? As Howard loves to say, "The mind knows not what the tongue wants." It's a mystery! And a critically important step in understanding our own desires and tastes is to realize that we cannot always explain what we want deep down. If I asked all of you, for example, in this room, what you want in a coffee, you know what you'd say? Every one of you would say "I want a dark, rich, hearty roast." It's what people always say when you ask them what they want in a coffee. What do you like? Dark, rich, hearty roast! What percentage of you actually like a dark, rich, hearty roast? According to Howard, somewhere between 25 and 27 percent of you. Most of you like milky, weak coffee. But you will never, ever say to someone who asks you what you want -- that "I want a milky, weak coffee." (Laughter) So that's number one thing that Howard did.

Number two thing that Howard did is he made us realize -- it's another very critical point -- he made us realize in the importance of what he likes to call horizontal segmentation. Why is this critical? It's critical because this is the way the food industry thought before Howard. Right? What were they obsessed with in the early '80s? They were obsessed with mustard. In particular, they were obsessed with the story of Grey Poupon. Right? Used to be, there were two mustards. French's and Gulden's. What were they? Yellow mustard. What's in yellow mustard? Yellow mustard seeds, turmeric, and paprika. That was mustard. Grey Poupon came along, with a Dijon. Right? Much more volatile brown mustard seed, some white wine, a nose hit, much more delicate aromatics. And what do they do? They put it in a little tiny glass jar, with a wonderful enameled label on it, made it look French, even though it's made in Oxnard, California. And instead of charging a dollar-fifty for the eight-ounce bottle, the way the French's and Gulden's did, they decided to charge four dollars. And then they had those ads, right? With the guy in the Rolls Royce, and he's eating the Grey Poupon, the other Rolls Royce pulls up, and he says, do you have any Grey Poupon? And the whole thing, after they did that, Grey Poupon takes off! Takes over the mustard business! And everyone's take-home lesson from that was that the way to get to make people happy is to give them something that is more expensive, something to aspire to.

Right? It's to make them turn their back on what they think they like now, and reach out for something higher up the mustard hierarchy. A better mustard! A more expensive mustard! A mustard of more sophistication and culture and meaning. And Howard looked to that and said, that's wrong! Mustard does not exist on a hierarchy. Mustard exists, just like tomato sauce, on a horizontal plane. There is no good mustard, or bad mustard. There is no perfect mustard, or imperfect mustard. There are only different kinds of mustards that suit different kinds of people. He fundamentally democratized the way we think about taste. And for that, as well, we owe Howard Moskowitz a huge vote of thanks. Third thing that Howard did, and perhaps the most important, is Howard confronted the notion of the Platonic dish.

(Laughter) What do I mean by that? For the longest time in the food industry, there was a sense that there was one way, a perfect way, to make a dish. You go to Chez Panisse, they give you the red-tail sashimi with roasted pumpkin seeds in a something something reduction. They don't give you five options on the reduction, right? They don't say, do you want the extra-chunky reduction, or do you want the -- no! You just get the reduction. Why? Because the chef at Chez Panisse has a Platonic notion about red-tail sashimi. This is the way it ought to be. And she serves it that way time and time again, and if you quarrel with her, she will say, "You know what? You're wrong! This is the best way it ought to be in this restaurant. Now that same idea fueled the commercial food industry as well.

They had a notion, a Platonic notion, of what tomato sauce was. And where did that come from? It came from Italy. Italian tomato sauce is what? It's blended, it's thin. The culture of tomato sauce was thin. When we talked about authentic tomato sauce in the 1970s, we talked about Italian tomato sauce. We talked about the earliest ragus. Which had no visible solids, right? Which were thin, and you just put a little bit over it and it sunk down to the bottom of the pasta. That's what it was. And why were we attached to that? Because we thought that what it took to make people happy was to provide them with the most culturally authentic tomato sauce, A, and B, we thought that if we gave them the culturally authentic tomato sauce, then they would embrace it. And that's what would please the maximum number of people. And the reason we thought that -- in other words, people in the cooking world were looking for cooking universals.

They were looking for one way to treat all of us. And it's good reason for them to be obsessed with the idea of universals, because all of science, through the 19th century and much of the 20th, was obsessed with universals. Psychologists, medical scientists, economists were all interested in finding out the rules that govern the way all of us behave. But that changed, right? What is the great revolution in science of the last 10, 15 years? It is the movement from the search for universals to the understanding of variability. Now in medical science, we don't want to know how necessarily -- just how cancer works, we want to know how your cancer is different from my cancer. I guess my cancer different from your cancer. Genetics has opened the door to the study of human variability. What Howard Moskowitz was doing was saying this same revolution needs to happen in the world of tomato sauce. And for that, we owe him a great vote of thanks. I'll give you one last illustration of variability, and that is -- oh, I'm sorry.

Howard not only believed that, but he took it a second step, which was to say that when we pursue universal principles in food, we aren't just making an error, we are actually doing ourselves a massive disservice. And the example he used was coffee. And coffee is something he did a lot of work with, with Nescafe. If I were to ask all of you to try and come up with a brand of coffee -- a type of coffee, a brew -- that made all of you happy, and then I asked you to rate that coffee, the average score in this room for coffee would be about 60 on a scale of 0 to 100. If, however, you allowed me to break you into coffee clusters, maybe three or four coffee clusters, and I could make coffee just for each of those individual clusters, your scores would go from 60 to 75 or 78. The difference between coffee at 60 and coffee at 78 is a difference between coffee that makes you wince, and coffee that makes you deliriously happy. That is the final, and I think most beautiful lesson, of Howard Moskowitz.

That in embracing the diversity of human beings, we will find a surer way to true happiness. Thank you.

Malcolm Gladwell on spaghetti sauce Malcolm Gladwell über Spaghetti-Sauce Malcolm Gladwell για τη σάλτσα σπαγγέτι Malcolm Gladwell on spaghetti sauce Malcolm Gladwell sobre la salsa de espagueti マルコム・グラッドウェル、スパゲッティ・ソースについて Malcolm Gladwell o sosie do spaghetti Malcolm Gladwell sobre o molho de esparguete Малкольм Гладуэлл о соусе для спагетти Malcolm Gladwell spagetti sosu üzerine Малкольм Гладуелл про соус для спагетті 马尔科姆·格拉德威尔谈意大利面酱

I think I was supposed to talk about my new book, which is called "Blink," and it’s about snap judgments and first impressions. Ich denke, ich sollte über mein neues Buch sprechen, das "Blink" heißt, und es geht um schnelle Urteile und erste Eindrücke. Je pense que je devais parler de mon nouveau livre, qui s'appelle "Blink", et il s'agit de jugements instantanés et de premières impressions. 私は "Blink"と呼ばれる私の新しい本について話すことになっていたと思うし、それは簡単な判断と第一印象に関する。 나는 "블링크 (Blink)"라고 불리는 나의 새 책에 대해 이야기하기로되어 있다고 생각합니다. 그것은 단순한 판단과 첫인상에 관한 것입니다. Eu acho que deveria falar sobre o meu novo livro, que é chamado de "Blink", e é sobre julgamentos precipitados e primeiras impressões. Я думаю, что я должен был поговорить о моей новой книге, которая называется «Блинк», и речь идет о моментальных суждениях и первых впечатлениях. Sanırım "Blink" denen yeni kitabım hakkında konuşmam gerekiyordu ve bu da kararlar ve ilk izlenimlerle ilgili. 我想我该谈论的是我的新书,叫做“眨眼”,它是关于快速判断和第一印象的。

And it comes out in January, and I hope you all buy it in triplicate. Und es kommt im Januar heraus, und ich hoffe, Sie alle kaufen es in dreifacher Ausfertigung. そして、1月に発売されるのですが、皆さんは3枚重ねで買ってください。 I wychodzi w styczniu, i mam nadzieję, że wszyscy kupicie to w trzech egzemplarzach. E sai em janeiro, e espero que todos comprem em triplicado. И он выйдет в январе, и я надеюсь, что вы все купите его в трех экземплярах. Ocak ayında çıkacak ve umarım hepiniz üç katını alırsınız. But I was thinking about this, and I realized that although my new book makes me happy, and I think would make my mother happy, it’s not really about happiness. Aber ich habe darüber nachgedacht und festgestellt, dass mein neues Buch mich zwar glücklich macht und ich denke, dass es meine Mutter glücklich machen würde, aber es geht nicht wirklich um Glück. でも、そんなことを考えていたら、新しい本は、自分もうれしいし、母も喜ぶと思うけれど、実は、幸せのための本ではないことに気がつきました。 Mas eu estava pensando sobre isso, e percebi que, embora meu novo livro me faça feliz, e acho que faria minha mãe feliz, não é realmente sobre felicidade. Но я думал об этом, и я понял, что, хотя моя новая книга делает меня счастливой, и я думаю, что моя мать будет счастлива, это не значит счастье. Ama bunu düşünürken yeni kitabımın beni mutlu etmesine ve annemi de mutlu edeceğini düşünmeme rağmen aslında mutlulukla ilgili olmadığını fark ettim. 但是我当时正在考虑这一点,我意识到,尽管我的新书使我快乐,而且我认为会让母亲快乐,但这并不是真正的快乐。 So I decided instead, I would talk about someone who I think has done as much to make Americans happy as perhaps anyone over the last 20 years. Also beschloss ich stattdessen, über jemanden zu sprechen, von dem ich glaube, dass er in den letzten 20 Jahren genauso viel getan hat, um die Amerikaner glücklich zu machen wie vielleicht jeder andere. そこで私は代わりに、過去20年間、おそらく誰よりもアメリカ人を幸せにするために多くのことをしたと思う人について話すことにしました。 Então eu decidi, em vez disso, eu falaria sobre alguém que eu acho que fez tanto para fazer os americanos felizes como talvez qualquer um nos últimos 20 anos. Поэтому я решил вместо этого поговорить о ком-то, кто, как я думаю, сделал так много, чтобы сделать американцев счастливыми, как, возможно, кто-нибудь за последние 20 лет. Ben de bunun yerine, son 20 yılda Amerikalıları mutlu etmek için belki de herkes kadar çok şey yaptığını düşündüğüm birinden bahsetmeye karar verdim. 因此,我决定,我将谈论一个我认为在过去20年中为美国人带来巨大成就的人。 A man who is a great personal hero of mine. Ein Mann, der ein großer persönlicher Held von mir ist. Człowiek, który jest moim wielkim osobistym bohaterem. Um homem que é um grande herói pessoal meu. Человек, который является моим личным героем. Benim için büyük bir kahraman olan bir adam. Someone by the name of Howard Moskowitz, who is most famous for reinventing spaghetti sauce. Jemand namens Howard Moskowitz, der am bekanntesten dafür ist, die Spaghettisauce neu zu erfinden. Ktoś imieniem Howard Moskowitz, który słynie z odkrywania sosu do spaghetti. Alguém com o nome de Howard Moskowitz, que é mais famoso por reinventar o molho de espaguete. Кто-то по имени Говард Московиц, самый известный за то, что изобрел спагетти-соус. Spagetti sosunu yeniden icat etmesiyle ünlü Howard Moskowitz adında biri. Howard’s about this high, and he’s round, and he’s in his sixties, and he has big huge glasses and thinning grey hair, and he has a kind of wonderful exuberance and vitality, and he has a parrot, and he loves the opera, and he’s a great aficionado of medieval history. Howard ist ungefähr so hoch, und er ist rund, und er ist in den Sechzigern, und er hat große, riesige Brillen und schütteres graues Haar, und er hat eine Art wunderbaren Überschwang und Vitalität, und er hat einen Papagei, und er liebt die Oper und Er ist ein großer Liebhaber der mittelalterlichen Geschichte. ハワードはこのくらいの高さで、丸くて、60代で、大きな大きな眼鏡と細い白髪を持っていて、一種の素晴らしい活気と活力を持っていて、オウムを持っていて、オペラを愛しています、そして彼は中世の歴史の偉大な愛好家です。 Howard jest na tak wysokim poziomie, jest okrągły, ma sześćdziesiąt lat, ma duże, duże okulary i rzadkie siwe włosy, ma coś w rodzaju wspaniałego entuzjazmu i witalności, ma papugę i uwielbia operę, i jest wielkim miłośnikiem historii średniowiecza. Howard está tão alto assim, e ele é redondo, e ele está em seus sessenta anos, e ele tem grandes óculos enormes e cabelos grisalhos ralos, e ele tem uma espécie de exuberância e vitalidade maravilhosas, e ele tem um papagaio, e ele adora ópera, e ele é um grande aficionado da história medieval. Говард об этом высоко, и он круглый, и ему в шестидесятые годы, и у него большие огромные очки и истончатые седые волосы, и у него есть какое-то прекрасное изобилие и жизненность, и у него есть попугай, и он любит оперу, и он великий поклонник средневековой истории. Howard şu boylarda, yuvarlak, altmış yaşlarında, kocaman gözlükleri ve seyrelmiş gri saçları var, harika bir coşkusu ve canlılığı var, bir papağanı var, operayı seviyor ve ortaçağ tarihine büyük bir meraklı. 霍华德(Howard)的身高很高,他圆圆,六十多岁,他戴着一副巨大的大眼镜,稀疏的白发,他有种奇妙的生机和活力,他有一只鹦鹉,他热爱歌剧,并且他是中世纪历史的忠实拥护者。

And by profession, he’s a psychophysicist. Und von Beruf ist er Psychophysiker. そして、職業は心理物理学者です。 Z zawodu jest psychofizykiem. E por profissão, ele é um psicofísico. А по профессии он психофизик. Ve mesleği psikofizikçi. Now, I should tell you that I have no idea what psychophysics is, although at some point in my life, I dated a girl for two years who was getting her doctorate in psychophysics. Jetzt sollte ich Ihnen sagen, dass ich keine Ahnung habe, was Psychophysik ist, obwohl ich irgendwann in meinem Leben ein Mädchen für zwei Jahre datiert habe, das in Psychophysik promoviert hat. さて、私は精神物理学が何であるかわからないということを伝えなければなりませんが、私の人生のある時点で、私は精神物理学の博士号を取得した2年間の女の子と付き合ったのです。 Teraz powinienem powiedzieć, że nie mam pojęcia, czym jest psychofizyka, chociaż w pewnym momencie mojego życia umawiałem się z dziewczyną przez dwa lata, która otrzymywała doktorat z psychofizyki. Bem, devo dizer-lhe que não tenho ideia do que seja psicofísica, embora em algum momento da minha vida, eu namorei uma garota por dois anos que estava obtendo seu doutorado em psicofísica. Теперь я должен сказать вам, что я понятия не имею, что такое психофизика, хотя в какой-то момент моей жизни я встречался с девушкой два года, которая получала докторскую степень по психофизике. Şimdi, size psikofiziğin ne olduğu hakkında hiçbir fikrim olmadığını söylemeliyim, ancak hayatımın bir noktasında, psikofizik alanında doktora yapan bir kızla iki yıl boyunca çıktım. 现在,我应该告诉您,我不知道什么是心理物理学,尽管我一生中曾与一位女孩约会两年,她正在获得心理学博士学位。 Which should tell you something about that relationship. Was Ihnen etwas über diese Beziehung erzählen sollte. それはあなたにその関係について何かを教えてくれるはずです。 Co powinno ci powiedzieć coś o tym związku. Что должно сказать вам кое-что об этих отношениях. 哪个应该告诉您有关这种关系的信息。 (Laughter) As far as I know, psychophysics is about measuring things. Soweit ich weiß, geht es in der Psychophysik darum, Dinge zu messen. 私の知る限り、精神物理学は物事を測定することです。 O ile mi wiadomo, psychofizyka polega na mierzeniu rzeczy. Bildiğim kadarıyla, psikofizik bir şeyleri ölçmekle ilgilidir.

And Howard is very interested in measuring things. Und Howard ist sehr daran interessiert, Dinge zu messen. そして、ハワードはモノを測ることにとても興味があります。 Howard da bir şeyleri ölçmekle çok ilgileniyor. And he graduated with his doctorate from Harvard, and he set up a little consulting shop in White Plains, New York. Er promovierte in Harvard und eröffnete ein kleines Beratungsgeschäft in White Plains, New York. そして、ハーバード大学で博士号を取得し、ニューヨークのホワイトプレーンズで小さなコンサルティングショップを立ち上げた。 Ukończył doktorat na Harvardzie i założył mały sklep konsultingowy w White Plains w Nowym Jorku. E ele se formou com seu doutorado em Harvard, e abriu uma pequena loja de consultoria em White Plains, Nova York. И он получил степень доктора наук в Гарварде и открыл небольшой консультационный магазин в Уайт-Плейнс, Нью-Йорк. Harvard'dan doktora derecesiyle mezun oldu ve White Plains, New York'ta küçük bir danışmanlık dükkanı açtı. 他从哈佛大学获得博士学位,并在纽约怀特普莱恩斯(White Plains)开设了一家小型咨询店。 And one of his first clients was -- this is many years ago, back in the early '70s -- one of his first clients was Pepsi. Und einer seiner ersten Kunden war - dies ist vor vielen Jahren, in den frühen 70er Jahren - einer seiner ersten Kunden war Pepsi. これは何年も前のことですが、70年代前半に、彼の最初のクライアントの1つがペプシでした。 E um de seus primeiros clientes foi - isso foi há muitos anos, no início dos anos 70 - um de seus primeiros clientes foi a Pepsi. İlk müşterilerinden biri de - bu yıllar önce, 70'lerin başında - Pepsi'ydi. And Pepsi came to Howard and they said, "You know, there’s this new thing called aspartame, and we would like to make Diet Pepsi. Und Pepsi kam zu Howard und sie sagten: "Weißt du, es gibt dieses neue Ding namens Aspartam, und wir würden gerne Diet Pepsi machen. そしてペプシがハワードにやって来て、「アスパルテームという新しいものがあります。ダイエットペプシを作りたいと思います。 A Pepsi przyszedł do Howarda i powiedzieli: „Wiesz, jest nowa rzecz zwana aspartamem, i chcielibyśmy zrobić dietę Pepsi. E a Pepsi procurou Howard e eles disseram: "Sabe, existe uma coisa nova chamada aspartame e gostaríamos de fazer Diet Pepsi. Pepsi Howard'a geldi ve "Aspartam diye yeni bir şey var ve biz Diet Pepsi yapmak istiyoruz. 百事可乐来到霍华德,他们说:“你知道,有一个叫做阿斯巴甜的新东西,我们想制造Diet Pepsi。 We’d like you to figure out how much aspartame we should put in each can of Diet Pepsi, in order to have the perfect drink." Wir möchten, dass Sie herausfinden, wie viel Aspartam wir in jede Dose Diet Pepsi geben sollten, um das perfekte Getränk zu erhalten. " 完璧な飲み物を作るために、ダイエットペプシの各缶にどれだけのアスパルテームを入れるべきかを考えてもらいたいのです。」 Мы бы хотели, чтобы вы выяснили, сколько аспартама мы должны положить в каждую банку диетической пепси, чтобы получить идеальный напиток ». Mükemmel içeceği elde etmek için her bir kutu Diet Pepsi'ye ne kadar aspartam koymamız gerektiğini bulmanızı istiyoruz." Right? Now that sounds like an incredibly straightforward question to answer, and that’s what Howard thought. Das klingt nach einer unglaublich einfachen Frage, und das dachte Howard. 今となっては、信じられないほど素直な答えに聞こえるが、ハワードもそう思っていた。 Parece uma pergunta incrivelmente simples de responder, e foi isso que Howard pensou. Теперь это звучит как невероятно простой вопрос, и это то, что подумал Говард. Şimdi bu cevaplaması son derece basit bir soru gibi geliyor ve Howard da böyle düşündü. 现在,这听起来像是一个非常简单的问题要回答,这就是霍华德的想法。 Because Pepsi told him, "Look, we’re working with a band between eight and 12 percent. Weil Pepsi ihm sagte: "Schau, wir arbeiten mit einer Band zwischen acht und 12 Prozent. ペプシが彼に言ったので、「見て、私たちは8から12パーセントの間のバンドで働いています。 Ponieważ Pepsi powiedział mu: „Słuchaj, pracujemy z zespołem od 8 do 12 procent. Потому что Пепси сказал ему: «Слушай, мы работаем с группой от восьми до 12 процентов. Çünkü Pepsi ona, "Bak, yüzde 8 ila 12 arasında bir bantla çalışıyoruz. 因为百事可乐告诉他:“看,我们正在为8%至12%的乐队工作。 Anything below eight percent sweetness is not sweet enough, anything above 12 percent sweetness is too sweet. Alles unter acht Prozent Süße ist nicht süß genug, alles über 12 Prozent Süße ist zu süß. Все, что ниже восьми процентов сладости, недостаточно сладкое, все, что выше 12 процентов сладости, слишком сладко. Yüzde sekiz tatlılığın altındaki herhangi bir şey yeterince tatlı değildir, yüzde 12 tatlılığın üzerindeki herhangi bir şey ise çok tatlıdır. We want to know, what’s the sweet spot between eight and 12?" Wir wollen wissen, was ist der Sweet Spot zwischen acht und zwölf? " 私たちが知りたいのは、8と12の間のスイートスポットはどこなのか、ということです。" Chcemy wiedzieć, jaki jest słodki punkt między ósmą a dwunastą? ” Bilmek istediğimiz, sekiz ile 12 arasındaki tatlı nokta nedir?" Now, if I gave you this problem to do, you would all say, it’s very simple. さて、この問題をやってもらうと、皆さんは、とても簡単だとおっしゃるでしょう。 Теперь, если бы я дал вам эту задачу, вы бы все сказали, это очень просто. What we do, is you make up a big experimental batch of Pepsi, at every degree of sweetness -- eight percent, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, all the way up to 12 -- and we try this out with thousands of people, and we plot the results on a curve, and we take the most popular concentration. 私たちがしていることは、8%、8.1、8.2、8.3、12までのすべての甘さの度合で、ペプシの大きな実験的バッチを構成することです。結果を曲線でプロットし、最も一般的な濃度を採用します。 O que fazemos é criar um grande lote experimental de Pepsi, em todos os graus de doçura - oito por cento, 8,1, 8,2, 8,3, até 12 - e testamos isso com milhares de pessoas, e plotamos os resultados em uma curva e pegamos a concentração mais popular. Что мы делаем, так это то, что вы составляете большую экспериментальную партию Пепси, на каждой степени сладости - восемь процентов, 8,1, 8,2, 8,3, вплоть до 12 - и мы пробуем это с тысячами людей, и мы наносим результаты на кривую и выбираем наиболее популярную концентрацию. Yaptığımız şey, her tatlılık derecesinde - yüzde sekiz, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 12'ye kadar - büyük bir deneysel Pepsi partisi hazırlamak ve bunu binlerce insanla denemek ve sonuçları bir eğri üzerinde çizmek ve en popüler konsantrasyonu almak. 我们要做的是,在百分百的甜度下,您要组成大量的百事可乐实验性甜品-分别达到8%,8.1、8.2、8.3,一直到12点-我们在成千上万的人中进行尝试,并且我们将结果绘制在曲线上,并采用最受欢迎的浓度。 Right? Really simple. Howard does the experiment, and he gets the data back, and he plots it on a curve, and all of a sudden he realizes it’s not a nice bell curve. ハワードは実験を行い、データが返ってきて、それを曲線にプロットしたところ、突然、それがきれいなベルカーブでないことに気づきます。 Howard는 실험을 수행하고 데이터를 다시 가져 와서 곡선에 표시하고 갑자기 종소리가 좋지 않다는 것을 알게됩니다. Howard przeprowadza eksperyment i odzyskuje dane, i rysuje je na krzywej, i nagle zdaje sobie sprawę, że to nie jest ładna krzywa dzwonowa. Howard faz o experimento, obtém os dados de volta e os traça em uma curva e, de repente, percebe que não é uma bela curva em forma de sino. Ховард проводит эксперимент, и он возвращает данные, и строит их на кривой, и внезапно он понимает, что это не очень хорошая кривая колокола. Howard deneyi yapar, verileri geri alır ve bir eğri üzerine çizer ve birden bunun güzel bir çan eğrisi olmadığını fark eder. 霍华德做了实验,他得到了数据,然后将其绘制在一条曲线上,突然之间,他意识到这不是一条很好的钟形曲线。

In fact, the data doesn’t make any sense. W rzeczywistości dane nie mają żadnego sensu. На самом деле, данные не имеют никакого смысла. Aslında, veriler hiçbir anlam ifade etmiyor. It’s a mess. Es ist ein Chaos. ごちゃごちゃしてますね。 Это беспорядок. It’s all over the place. Es ist überall. そこらじゅうにあるんですよ。 Jest wszędzie. Это повсюду. Her yerde var. Now, most people in that business, in the world of testing food and such, are not dismayed when the data comes back a mess. Jetzt sind die meisten Leute in diesem Geschäft, in der Welt des Testens von Lebensmitteln und dergleichen, nicht bestürzt, wenn die Daten wieder durcheinander geraten. Teraz większość ludzi w tym biznesie, w świecie testowania żywności i tym podobnych, nie jest przerażona, gdy dane wracają do porządku. Agora, a maioria das pessoas nesse negócio, no mundo dos testes de alimentos e coisas do gênero, não fica desanimada quando os dados voltam uma bagunça. Теперь большинство людей в этом бизнесе, в мире тестирования продуктов питания и тому подобного, не смущаются, когда данные возвращаются в беспорядок. Şimdi, bu işteki çoğu insan, gıda ve benzeri şeyleri test etme dünyasında, veriler bir karmaşa olarak geri döndüğünde dehşete düşmez. They think, well, you know, figuring out what people think about cola’s not that easy. Sie denken, na ja, wissen Sie, herauszufinden, was die Leute über Cola denken, ist nicht so einfach. コーラについて人々がどう考えているかを知ることは、そう簡単なことではないと思うのです。 Они думают, ну, вы знаете, понять, что люди думают о коле, не так просто. İnsanların kola hakkında ne düşündüğünü anlamanın o kadar da kolay olmadığını düşünüyorlar. 他们认为,弄清楚人们对可乐的看法并不是那么容易。 You know, maybe we made an error somewhere along the way. どこかでミスをしたのかもしれないじゃないですか。 Вы знаете, может быть, мы допустили ошибку где-то по пути. Belki de yol boyunca bir yerlerde bir hata yapmışızdır. You know, let’s just make an educated guess, and they simply point and they go for 10 percent, right in the middle. Weißt du, lass uns einfach eine fundierte Vermutung anstellen, und sie zeigen einfach und sie machen 10 Prozent, genau in der Mitte. そうすると、彼らは単純に指をさして、ちょうど真ん中の10パーセントを選ぶんです。 Вы знаете, давайте просто сделаем обоснованное предположение, и они просто указывают, и они идут на 10 процентов, прямо в середине. Bilirsiniz, sadece eğitimli bir tahminde bulunalım ve onlar basitçe yüzde 10'u işaret ediyorlar, tam ortada. 您知道的,让我们做一个有根据的猜测,他们简单地指出,然后就上升了10%,就在中间。 Howard is not so easily placated. Howard ist nicht so leicht zu beschwichtigen. ハワードはそう簡単になだめられない。 Howard não se acalma tão facilmente. Говард не так легко успокаивается. Howard is a man of a certain degree of intellectual standards. Howard ist ein Mann mit einem gewissen Grad an intellektuellen Standards. ハワードは、ある程度の知的水準に達している人です。 Howard é um homem com um certo grau de padrões intelectuais. Говард - человек определенной степени интеллектуальных стандартов. And this was not good enough for him, and this question bedeviled him for years. そして、この疑問は何年も彼を悩ませた。 E isso não era bom o suficiente para ele, e essa questão o atormentou por anos. И этого ему не хватило, и этот вопрос мучил его годами. І цього йому було недостатньо, і це питання мучило його роками. And he would think it through and say, what was wrong? E ele pensaria bem e diria, o que estava errado? И он продумает это и скажет, что не так? А він подумав і сказав, що не так? Why could we not make sense of this experiment with Diet Pepsi? なぜ、ダイエットペプシでこのような実験ができなかったのでしょうか? Почему мы не можем понять этот эксперимент с диетой Pepsi? And one day, he was sitting in a diner in White Plains, about to go trying to dream up some work for NescafE. ある日、彼はホワイトプレーンズのダイナーで、ネスカフェの仕事を夢見ようとしているところに居合わせた。 И однажды он сидел в закусочной в Белых Равнинах, собираясь придумать какую-нибудь работу для NescafE. 有一天,他坐在怀特普莱恩斯的一家小餐馆里,正准备去为NescafE做一些梦。

And suddenly, like a bolt of lightning, the answer came to him. そして、突然、稲妻のように答えが浮かんだ。 E de repente, como um raio, a resposta veio a ele. И вдруг, как молния, ответ пришел к нему. And that is, that when they analyzed the Diet Pepsi data, they were asking the wrong question. そしてそれは、ダイエットペプシのデータを分析したときに、間違った質問をしていたということです。 E isto é, quando eles analisaram os dados da Diet Pepsi, eles estavam fazendo a pergunta errada. Иными словами, когда они анализировали данные «Диеты Пепси», они задавали неправильный вопрос. They were looking for the perfect Pepsi, and they should have been looking for the perfect Pepsis. 彼らは完璧なペプシを探していました、そして彼らは完璧なペプシを探していたはずです。 Они искали идеальный пепси, и они должны были искать идеальный пепси. Вони шукали ідеальний Pepsi, і вони повинні були шукати ідеальний Pepsi. 他们一直在寻找完美的百事可乐,他们应该一直在寻找完美的百事可乐。 Trust me. 私を信じてください。 Доверьтесь мне. This was an enormous revelation. Это было огромное откровение. This was one of the most brilliant breakthroughs in all of food science. これは、あらゆる食品科学の中で、最も輝かしいブレークスルーのひとつでした。 Este foi um dos avanços mais brilhantes em toda a ciência alimentar. Это был один из самых ярких прорывов во всей науке о еде. Це був один із найяскравіших проривів у всій харчовій науці. And Howard immediately went on the road, and he would go to conferences around the country, would stand up and he would say, "You had been looking for the perfect Pepsi. І Говард негайно вирушив у дорогу, і він їздив на конференції по всій країні, вставав і казав: «Ви шукали ідеальну Pepsi. You’re wrong. You should be looking for the perfect Pepsis." Ви повинні шукати ідеальний Pepsis». 您应该在寻找完美的百事可乐。” And people would look at him with a blank look, and they would say, "What are you talking about? そして人々は彼を真っ白な表情で見て、「あなたは何について話しているのですか? E as pessoas olhavam para ele com um olhar vazio e diziam: "Do que você está falando? И люди смотрели на него пустым взглядом и говорили: «О чем ты говоришь? І люди дивилися на нього порожнім поглядом і казали: «Про що ти говориш? This is craziness." Это сумасшествие. " And they would say, you know, "Move! そして、彼らは、「動け」と言うだろう! И они сказали бы, вы знаете, "Двигайся! Next!" Следующий!" Tried to get business, nobody would hire him -- he was obsessed, though, and he talked about it and talked about it and talked about it. しかし、彼はそのことに執着し、それについて話し、それについて話し、それについて話し続けたのです。 Tentei fazer negócios, ninguém o contratou - ele estava obcecado, porém, e falava sobre isso, falava e falava sobre isso. Пытался заняться бизнесом, никто не брал его на работу - хотя он был одержим, и он говорил об этом, говорил об этом и говорил об этом. 试着去做生意,没有人会雇用他-不过,他很着迷,他在谈论,谈论和谈论它。 Howard loves the Yiddish expression "to a worm in horseradish, the world is horseradish." ハワードは、「西洋わさびのワームにとって、世界は西洋わさびである」というイディッシュ語の表現が大好きです。 Говард любит идишское выражение «червю на хрене - мир хреновый». 霍华德喜欢意第绪语“对辣根中的蠕虫来说,世界就是辣根”。 This was his horseradish. Este era o seu rábano. Это был его хрен. (Laughter) He was obsessed with it! (Смех) Он был одержим этим! And finally, he had a breakthrough. И наконец, у него был прорыв.

Vlasic Pickles came to him, and they said, "Mr. Moskowitz -- Doctor Moskowitz -- we want to make the perfect pickle." ブラシック・ピクルスが彼のところにやってきて、「モスコウィッツさん、モスコウィッツ博士、完璧なピクルスを作りたいんです」と言ったんです。 Пришли к нему Власик Пиклс, и они сказали: «Мистер Московиц, доктор Московиц, мы хотим сделать идеальный рассол». And he said, "There is no perfect pickle, there are only perfect pickles." そして彼は、「完璧な漬物はなく、完璧な漬物しかない」と語った。 И он сказал: «Идеальных маринадов нет, есть только идеальные маринады». And he came back to them and he said, "You don’t just need to improve your regular, you need to create zesty." E ele voltou para eles e disse: "Você não precisa apenas melhorar o seu normal, você precisa criar sabor." И он вернулся к ним и сказал: «Вам не нужно просто улучшать свои обычные навыки, вам нужно создавать пикантность». І він повернувся до них і сказав: «Вам потрібно не просто покращити свій звичайний, вам потрібно створити пікантність». 然后他回到他们的身边,他说:“您不仅需要改善自己的常规,还需要创造热情。” And that’s where we got zesty pickles. そこで、ザクザクしたピクルスができたんです。 E é aí que temos picles picantes. И вот где мы получили пикантные соленые огурцы. 这就是我们泡菜的地方。 Then the next person came to him, and that was Campbell’s Soup. すると、次に来たのがキャンベルスープだった。 Затем к нему пришел следующий человек, и это был суп Кэмпбелла. 然后下一个人来找他,那就是坎贝尔的汤。 And this was even more important. И это было еще важнее. In fact, Campbell’s Soup is where Howard made his reputation. 実は、キャンベル・スープは、ハワードが名声を得た場所なのです。 Фактически, Суп Кэмпбелла - то, где Говард сделал свою репутацию. Campbell’s made Prego, and Prego, in the early '80s, was struggling next to Ragu, which was the dominant spaghetti sauce of the '70s and '80s. キャンベルはプレゴを製造していましたが、プレゴは80年代前半、70年代から80年代にかけてスパゲッティソースの覇者だったラグーの横で苦戦していました。 Кэмпбелл сделал Prego, а Prego в начале 80-х боролся с Ragu, который был доминирующим соусом для спагетти 70-х и 80-х годов. Campbell робив «Прего», а «Прего» на початку 80-х років боровся з Рагу, який був домінуючим соусом для спагетті 70-х і 80-х років. Now in the industry -- I don’t know whether you care about this, or how much time I have to go into this. 今、業界では......あなたがこのことを気にしているかどうか、私がこのことを説明する時間がどれほどあるかは分かりませんが。 Сейчас в отрасли - я не знаю, волнует ли вас это, или сколько мне нужно времени для этого. But it was, technically speaking -- this is an aside -- Prego is a better tomato sauce than Ragu. しかし、技術的に言えば、これは余談ですが、プレゴはラグーよりも優れたトマトソースです。 Но с технической точки зрения это было в стороне - Prego - лучший томатный соус, чем Ragu. 但是,从技术上来说,这是一个问题-相比起Ragu,Prego是更好的番茄酱。 The quality of the tomato paste is much better, the spice mix is far superior, it adheres to the pasta in a much more pleasing way. トマトペーストの品質ははるかに優れており、スパイスミックスははるかに優れており、パスタにずっと心地よく付着します。 A qualidade da polpa de tomate é muito melhor, a mistura de temperos é bem superior, adere à massa de uma forma muito mais agradável. Качество томатной пасты намного лучше, смесь специй намного лучше, она прилипает к пасте гораздо приятнее. Якість томатної пасти набагато краща, суміш спецій набагато краща, вона набагато приємніше злипається з пастою. 番茄酱的质量要好得多,香料混合物要好得多,它以更令人愉悦的方式粘附在面食上。 In fact, they would do the famous bowl test back in the '70s with Ragu and Prego. 実際、彼らは70年代にラグーとプレーゴで有名なボウルテストを行っていました. На самом деле, в 70-х годах они провели знаменитый тест на чашу с Рагу и Прего. 实际上,他们会在70年代与Ragu和Prego一起进行著名的碗测试。 You’d have a plate of spaghetti, and you would pour it on, right? あなたはスパゲッティのプレートを持っていて、それを注ぎますよね? У вас будет тарелка спагетти, и вы будете разливать ее, верно? Ви мали б тарілку спагетті, і ви б їх налили, чи не так? 您会吃一盘意大利面,然后倒在上面,对吗? And the Ragu would all go to the bottom, and the Prego would sit on top. そしてラグーはすべて下に行き、プレゴは上に座ります。 E o Ragu iria para o fundo e o Prego para o topo. И Рагу все пойдет ко дну, а Прего будет сидеть на вершине. A Ragu by išli dolu a Prego by sedelo na vrchu. 拉古(Ragu)都将跌入谷底,而普雷戈(Prego)则坐在顶部。 That’s called "adherence." それは「アドヒアランス」と呼ばれます。 Isso é chamado de "adesão". Это называется «приверженность». And, anyway, despite the fact that they were far superior in adherence, and the quality of their tomato paste, Prego was struggling. とにかく、接着力とトマトペーストの品質がはるかに優れていたにもかかわらず、プレゴは苦労していました. E, de qualquer maneira, apesar do fato de serem muito superiores em aderência e na qualidade de sua pasta de tomate, Prego estava lutando. И, во всяком случае, несмотря на тот факт, что они намного превосходили в приверженности и качестве своей томатной пасты, Прего боролся. So they came to Howard, and they said, fix us. それで彼らはハワードのところに来て、私たちを直してくれと言いました。

And Howard looked at their product line, and he said, what you have is a dead tomato society. ハワードは彼らの製品ラインを見て、彼は言った、あなたが持っているのは死んだトマト社会です. So he said, this is what I want to do. だから彼は言った、これは私がやりたいことです。 And he got together with the Campbell’s soup kitchen, and he made 45 varieties of spaghetti sauce. そして彼はキャンベル家の炊き出しで集まって 45 種類のスパゲッティ ソースを作りました。 And he varied them according to every conceivable way that you can vary tomato sauce. そして彼は、トマトソースを変えることができる考えられるあらゆる方法に従ってそれらを変えました. E ele os variou de acordo com todas as maneiras imagináveis de variar o molho de tomate. By sweetness, by level of garlic, by tartness, by sourness, by tomatoey-ness, by visible solids -- my favorite term in the spaghetti sauce business. 甘さ、にんにくの量、酸味、酸味、トマトっぽさ、目に見える固形物など、スパゲッティ ソース業界で私のお気に入りの言葉です。 Por doçura, por nível de alho, por acidez, por acidez, por tomate, por sólidos visíveis - meu termo favorito no negócio de molho de espaguete. За солодкістю, за рівнем часнику, за терпкістю, за кислинкою, за томатністю, за видимими твердими речовинами — мій улюблений термін у бізнесі соусів для спагетті. 通过甜度,大蒜含量,酸度,酸味,番茄味,可见固体含量-在意大利面条酱行业中我最喜欢的术语。 (Laughter) Every conceivable way you can vary spaghetti sauce, he varied spaghetti sauce. (笑)スパゲッティソースのバリエーションを考えうる限り、彼はスパゲッティソースを変化させました。 (众笑)您可以通过各种可能的方式来改变意大利面条酱,他也改变了意大利面条酱。 And then he took this whole raft of 45 spaghetti sauces, and he went on the road. それから彼は45個のスパゲッティソースを全部持って行きました。 然后他拿走了全部45种意大利面条酱,然后上路了。 He went to New York, he went to Chicago, he went to Jacksonville, he went to Los Angeles. 彼はニューヨークに行き、シカゴに行き、ジャクソンビルに行き、ロサンゼルスに行きました。 他去了纽约,去了芝加哥,去了杰克逊维尔,去了洛杉矶。 And he brought in people by the truckload. そして、彼はトラックで人々を連れてきました。 E ele trouxe pessoas em caminhões. И он привел людей на грузовике. Into big halls. And he sat them down for two hours, and he gave them, over the course of that two hours, ten bowls. 彼は彼らを 2 時間座らせ、その 2 時間の間に 10 個のボウルを与えました。 И он усадил их на два часа, и в течение этих двух часов дал им по десять чаш. І він посадив їх на дві години, і він дав їм, протягом цих двох годин, десять мисок. Ten small bowls of pasta, with a different spaghetti sauce on each one. 10 個の小鉢のパスタ。それぞれに異なるスパゲッティ ソースがかかっています。 And after they ate each bowl, they had to rate, from 0 to 100, how good they thought the spaghetti sauce was. そして、それぞれのボウルを食べた後、0から100までの範囲で、スパゲッティソースがどれほどおいしいと思うかを評価しなければなりませんでした. At the end of that process, after doing it for months and months, he had a mountain of data about how the American people feel about spaghetti sauce. 在这个过程结束了几个月和几个月之后,他获得了大量关于美国人对意大利面条酱的感觉的数据。

And then he analyzed the data. Now, did he look for the most popular brand variety of spaghetti sauce? さて、彼はスパゲッティソースの最も人気のあるブランド品種を探したのでしょうか。 现在,他是否在寻找最受欢迎的意大利面条酱品牌? No! Howard doesn’t believe that there is such a thing. ハワードは、そんなものはないと思っている。 Instead, he looked at the data, and he said, let’s see if we can group all these different data points into clusters. その代わり、彼はデータを見て、これらの異なるデータポイントをクラスターにまとめられるかどうか試してみたのです。 Em vez disso, ele olhou para os dados e disse, vamos ver se podemos agrupar todos esses pontos de dados diferentes em clusters. Вместо этого он посмотрел на данные и сказал: давайте посмотрим, сможем ли мы сгруппировать все эти разные точки данных в кластеры. Let’s see if they congregate around certain ideas. Mal sehen, ob sie sich um bestimmte Ideen versammeln. 彼らが特定のアイデアの周りに集まっているかどうか見てみましょう。 Vamos ver se eles se agrupam em torno de certas idéias. And sure enough, if you sit down, and you analyze all this data on spaghetti sauce, you realize that all Americans fall into one of three groups. そして案の定、座ってスパゲッティソースに関するこのすべてのデータを分析すると、すべてのアメリカ人が3つのグループのいずれかに分類されることがわかります. There are people who like their spaghetti sauce plain, there are people who like their spaghetti sauce spicy and there are people who like it extra chunky. スパゲッティソースは、プレーンが好きな人、スパイシーが好きな人、そしてエクストラチャンキーが好きな人、様々な人がいます。 Tem gente que gosta do molho de espaguete puro, tem gente que gosta do molho apimentado do espaguete e tem gente que gosta mais grosso. Є люди, які люблять соус для спагетті звичайний, є люди, які люблять соус для спагетті гострий, а є люди, які люблять його дуже шматковим. 有些人喜欢他们的意大利面条酱平原,有些人喜欢他们的意大利面条酱辛辣,有些人喜欢它特别矮胖。 And of those three facts, the third one was the most significant. そして、これら3つの事実のうち、3番目の事実が最も重要でした。 在这三个事实中,第三个事实是最重要的。

Because at the time, in the early 1980s, if you went to a supermarket, you would not find extra-chunky spaghetti sauce. 当時、1980年代初頭、スーパーに行ったら、分厚いスパゲッティソースは見つからなかったからです。 And Prego turned to Howard, and they said, "You telling me that one third of Americans crave extra-chunky spaghetti sauce and yet no one is servicing their needs?" プレゴはハワードの方を向いて、彼らは言いました。 E Prego voltou-se para Howard, e eles disseram: "Você está me dizendo que um terço dos americanos anseia por molho de espaguete com pedaços extras e ninguém está atendendo às suas necessidades?" И Прего повернулся к Ховарду, и они сказали: «Вы говорите мне, что треть американцев жаждет очень вкусного соуса для спагетти, но никто не обслуживает их потребности?» І Прего звернувся до Говарда, і вони сказали: «Ви хочете сказати мені, що одна третина американців жадає надзвичайно шматкового соусу для спагетті, але ніхто не задовольняє їхні потреби?» And he said yes! そして彼はそう言った! (Laughter) And Prego then went back, and completely reformulated their spaghetti sauce, and came out with a line of extra chunky that immediately and completely took over the spaghetti sauce business in this country. (プレゴはその後、スパゲッティソースを全面的に改良し、エクストラチャンキーを発売し、瞬く間にこの国のスパゲッティソースのビジネスを完全に支配しました。 And over the next 10 years, they made 600 million dollars off their line of extra-chunky sauces. And everyone else in the industry looked at what Howard had done, and they said, "Oh my god!

We’ve been thinking all wrong!" And that’s when you started getting seven different kinds of vinegar, and 14 different kinds of mustard, and 71 different kinds of olive oil -- and then eventually even Ragu hired Howard, and Howard did the exact same thing for Ragu that he did for Prego. 7種類の酢、14種類のマスタード、そして71種類のオリーブオイルを手に入れたとき、それからRaguでもHowardを雇い、HowardはPregoで行ったのとまったく同じことをRaguでも行いました。 。 E foi aí que você começou a obter sete tipos diferentes de vinagre, 14 tipos diferentes de mostarda e 71 tipos diferentes de azeite de oliva - e então, eventualmente, até Ragu contratou Howard, e Howard fez exatamente a mesma coisa com Ragu que fez com Prego . And today, if you go to the supermarket, a really good one, and you look at how many Ragus there are -- Do you know how many they are? 36! In six varieties: Cheese, Light, Robusto, Rich & Hearty, Old World Traditional, Extra-Chunky Garden. 共有六个品种:奶酪,轻质,罗布斯托,浓郁丰盛,旧世界传统风味,超矮胖的花园。 (Laughter) That’s Howard’s doing. (笑)それはハワードの仕業です。 That is Howard’s gift to the American people. それがハワードからアメリカ国民への贈り物です。 Now why is that important? さて、なぜそれが重要なのでしょうか?

It is, in fact, enormously important. I’ll explain to you why. その理由を説明します。 What Howard did is he fundamentally changed the way the food industry thinks about making you happy. ハワードがやったことは、食品業界が考える「あなたを幸せにする」という考え方を根本から変えたことです。 Говард докорінно змінив погляди харчової промисловості на те, як зробити вас щасливими. Assumption number one in the food industry used to be that the way to find out what people want to eat -- what will make people happy -- is to ask them. Die Annahme Nummer eins in der Lebensmittelindustrie war bisher, dass man herausfinden kann, was die Menschen essen wollen - was sie glücklich macht -, indem man sie fragt. かつて食品業界では、「人々が何を食べたいのか、何が人々を幸せにするのか、それを知るには、人々に尋ねるしかない」というのが第一の前提でした。 A suposição número um na indústria de alimentos costumava ser que a maneira de descobrir o que as pessoas querem comer - o que as deixará felizes - é perguntar a elas. 在食品行业中,假设最重要的是,找出人们想要吃的东西(使人们快乐的东西)的方法是问他们。 And for years and years and years and years, Ragu and Prego would have focus groups, and they would sit all you people down, and they would say, "What do you want in a spaghetti sauce? 何年も何年も何年も何年も何年も何年も何年も何年も何年も何年も何年も何年も何年も何年も何年もRaguとPregoはフォーカスグループを持って、彼らはすべての人々を座らせて、「あなたはスパゲッティソースに何を求めているのですか」と言った。 І роками, і роками, і роками, і роками Рагу та Прего проводили фокус-групи, і вони сідали всіх вас, і вони казали: «Що ви хочете в соусі для спагетті? 多年来,Ragu和Prego都会有焦点小组,他们会让你们所有人坐下来,他们会说:“您想要意大利面酱是什么? Tell us what you want in a spaghetti sauce." And for all those years -- 20, 30 years -- through all those focus group sessions, no one ever said they wanted extra-chunky. Even though at least a third of them, deep in their hearts, actually did. Und das, obwohl mindestens ein Drittel von ihnen tief in ihrem Herzen tatsächlich so dachte. 彼らの少なくとも3分の1は、彼らの心の奥深くで、実際にそうしました。 Mesmo que pelo menos um terço deles, no fundo de seus corações, realmente fizesse. Хоча щонайменше третина з них, у глибині душі, справді це робила. (Laughter) People don’t know what they want!

Right? As Howard loves to say, "The mind knows not what the tongue wants." Как любит говорить Говард: «Разум не знает, чего хочет язык». It’s a mystery! And a critically important step in understanding our own desires and tastes is to realize that we cannot always explain what we want deep down. E um passo extremamente importante para compreender nossos próprios desejos e gostos é perceber que nem sempre podemos explicar o que queremos no fundo. І критично важливий крок у розумінні наших власних бажань і смаків — усвідомлення того, що ми не завжди можемо пояснити, чого хочемо в глибині душі. If I asked all of you, for example, in this room, what you want in a coffee, you know what you’d say? Every one of you would say "I want a dark, rich, hearty roast." 你们每个人都会说:“我想要深色,浓郁,丰盛的烤肉。” It’s what people always say when you ask them what they want in a coffee. What do you like? Dark, rich, hearty roast! What percentage of you actually like a dark, rich, hearty roast? According to Howard, somewhere between 25 and 27 percent of you. Most of you like milky, weak coffee. A maioria de vocês gosta de café com leite fraco. But you will never, ever say to someone who asks you what you want -- that "I want a milky, weak coffee." 但是,您永远也不会对问您想要什么的人说“我想要一杯乳白色的咖啡”。 (Laughter) So that’s number one thing that Howard did.

Number two thing that Howard did is he made us realize -- it’s another very critical point -- he made us realize in the importance of what he likes to call horizontal segmentation. ハワードがした第2のことは、彼が私たちに気づかせたことです。これはもう1つの非常に重要なポイントです。彼は、水平セグメンテーションと呼ぶのが好きなことの重要性を私たちに気づかせました。 Why is this critical? It’s critical because this is the way the food industry thought before Howard. Right? What were they obsessed with in the early '80s? They were obsessed with mustard. In particular, they were obsessed with the story of Grey Poupon. Зокрема, вони були одержимі історією Сірого Поупона. Right? Used to be, there were two mustards. French’s and Gulden’s. What were they? Yellow mustard. What’s in yellow mustard? Yellow mustard seeds, turmeric, and paprika. Sementes de mostarda amarela, cúrcuma e páprica. That was mustard. Grey Poupon came along, with a Dijon. Right? Much more volatile brown mustard seed, some white wine, a nose hit, much more delicate aromatics. Semente de mostarda marrom muito mais volátil, um pouco de vinho branco, um toque de nariz, aromas muito mais delicados. And what do they do? They put it in a little tiny glass jar, with a wonderful enameled label on it, made it look French, even though it’s made in Oxnard, California. Eles colocaram em uma pequena jarra de vidro, com um rótulo esmaltado maravilhoso nela, fazendo com que parecesse francesa, mesmo sendo feita em Oxnard, Califórnia. And instead of charging a dollar-fifty for the eight-ounce bottle, the way the French’s and Gulden’s did, they decided to charge four dollars. And then they had those ads, right? そして、彼らはそれらの広告を持っていましたね? E então eles tiveram aqueles anúncios, certo? With the guy in the Rolls Royce, and he’s eating the Grey Poupon, the other Rolls Royce pulls up, and he says, do you have any Grey Poupon? 那个家伙在劳斯莱斯,他正在吃灰Po,另一个劳斯莱斯就拉起来,他说,你有灰Gray吗? And the whole thing, after they did that, Grey Poupon takes off! そして、全体として、彼らがそれをした後、Gray Pouponが飛び立ちます! E a coisa toda, depois que eles fizeram isso, Grey Poupon decola! Takes over the mustard business! からし事業を引き継ぐ! Assume o negócio da mostarda! And everyone’s take-home lesson from that was that the way to get to make people happy is to give them something that is more expensive, something to aspire to. E a lição que todos aprendemos com isso é que a maneira de fazer as pessoas felizes é dar a elas algo que seja mais caro, algo pelo qual aspirar.

Right? It’s to make them turn their back on what they think they like now, and reach out for something higher up the mustard hierarchy. Es soll sie dazu bringen, dem, was sie jetzt zu mögen glauben, den Rücken zu kehren und nach etwas Höherem in der Senfhierarchie zu greifen. É para fazê-los virar as costas para o que pensam que gostam agora e buscar algo mais alto na hierarquia da mostarda. A better mustard! A more expensive mustard! A mustard of more sophistication and culture and meaning. Uma mostarda com mais sofisticação, cultura e significado. Гірчиця більшої витонченості, культури та сенсу. And Howard looked to that and said, that’s wrong! Mustard does not exist on a hierarchy. A mostarda não existe em uma hierarquia. Mustard exists, just like tomato sauce, on a horizontal plane. There is no good mustard, or bad mustard. There is no perfect mustard, or imperfect mustard. There are only different kinds of mustards that suit different kinds of people. Existem apenas diferentes tipos de mostardas que se adaptam a diferentes tipos de pessoas. He fundamentally democratized the way we think about taste. Ele democratizou fundamentalmente a maneira como pensamos sobre gosto. And for that, as well, we owe Howard Moskowitz a huge vote of thanks. E por isso, também, devemos a Howard Moskowitz um grande voto de agradecimento. Third thing that Howard did, and perhaps the most important, is Howard confronted the notion of the Platonic dish. Drittens, und das ist vielleicht das Wichtigste, hat sich Howard mit dem Begriff der platonischen Schale auseinandergesetzt. ハワードがした3番目のこと、そしておそらく最も重要なことは、ハワードがプラトン料理の概念に直面したことです。 A terceira coisa que Howard fez, e talvez a mais importante, foi que Howard confrontou a noção do prato platônico. 霍华德所做的第三件事,也许是最重要的一件事情,是霍华德面对了柏拉图式菜肴的概念。

(Laughter) What do I mean by that? For the longest time in the food industry, there was a sense that there was one way, a perfect way, to make a dish. You go to Chez Panisse, they give you the red-tail sashimi with roasted pumpkin seeds in a something something reduction. Im Chez Panisse gibt es Rotschwanz-Sashimi mit gerösteten Kürbiskernen in einer etwas anderen Reduktion. 您去Chez Panisse,他们会给您带烤南瓜籽的红尾鱼生鱼片,但有一定的减少作用。 They don’t give you five options on the reduction, right? Sie geben Ihnen keine fünf Optionen für die Reduzierung, richtig? 그들은 당신에게 축소에 대한 다섯 가지 옵션을 제공하지 않습니다. Они не дают вам пять вариантов сокращения, верно? They don’t say, do you want the extra-chunky reduction, or do you want the -- no! You just get the reduction. Você acabou de obter a redução. Why? Because the chef at Chez Panisse has a Platonic notion about red-tail sashimi. Porque o chef do Chez Panisse tem uma noção platônica sobre sashimi de cauda vermelha. This is the way it ought to be. É assim que deve ser. And she serves it that way time and time again, and if you quarrel with her, she will say, "You know what? E ela serve dessa maneira repetidamente, e se você brigar com ela, ela dirá: "Quer saber? You’re wrong! This is the best way it ought to be in this restaurant. Now that same idea fueled the commercial food industry as well. Agora, essa mesma ideia também alimentou a indústria comercial de alimentos.

They had a notion, a Platonic notion, of what tomato sauce was. And where did that come from? It came from Italy. Italian tomato sauce is what? It’s blended, it’s thin. Está misturado, é fino. The culture of tomato sauce was thin. When we talked about authentic tomato sauce in the 1970s, we talked about Italian tomato sauce. 当我们在1970年代谈论正宗的番茄酱时,我们谈论的是意大利番茄酱。 We talked about the earliest ragus. Which had no visible solids, right? Which were thin, and you just put a little bit over it and it sunk down to the bottom of the pasta. Que eram finos, e você só colocava um pouco sobre eles e afundava no fundo da massa. That’s what it was. And why were we attached to that? E por que nos apegamos a isso? 为何我们如此执着呢? Because we thought that what it took to make people happy was to provide them with the most culturally authentic tomato sauce, A, and B, we thought that if we gave them the culturally authentic tomato sauce, then they would embrace it. Como pensamos que o necessário para deixar as pessoas felizes era fornecer o molho de tomate culturalmente autêntico, A e B, pensamos que, se lhes demos o molho de tomate culturalmente autêntico, eles o aceitarão. And that’s what would please the maximum number of people. E é isso que agradaria ao máximo de pessoas. And the reason we thought that -- in other words, people in the cooking world were looking for cooking universals. E a razão pela qual pensamos que - em outras palavras, as pessoas no mundo da culinária estavam procurando por universais de culinária.

They were looking for one way to treat all of us. Eles estavam procurando uma maneira de nos tratar a todos. And it’s good reason for them to be obsessed with the idea of universals, because all of science, through the 19th century and much of the 20th, was obsessed with universals. Psychologists, medical scientists, economists were all interested in finding out the rules that govern the way all of us behave. But that changed, right? What is the great revolution in science of the last 10, 15 years? It is the movement from the search for universals to the understanding of variability. 这是从寻找普适性到理解变异性的运动。 Now in medical science, we don’t want to know how necessarily -- just how cancer works, we want to know how your cancer is different from my cancer. I guess my cancer different from your cancer. Genetics has opened the door to the study of human variability. What Howard Moskowitz was doing was saying this same revolution needs to happen in the world of tomato sauce. And for that, we owe him a great vote of thanks. I’ll give you one last illustration of variability, and that is -- oh, I’m sorry.

Howard not only believed that, but he took it a second step, which was to say that when we pursue universal principles in food, we aren’t just making an error, we are actually doing ourselves a massive disservice. Howard não só acreditava nisso, mas também deu um segundo passo, que foi dizer que, quando buscamos princípios universais na alimentação, não estamos apenas cometendo um erro, mas na verdade prestando a nós mesmos um péssimo serviço. And the example he used was coffee. And coffee is something he did a lot of work with, with Nescafe. If I were to ask all of you to try and come up with a brand of coffee -- a type of coffee, a brew -- that made all of you happy, and then I asked you to rate that coffee, the average score in this room for coffee would be about 60 on a scale of 0 to 100. Se eu pedisse a todos vocês para tentarem encontrar uma marca de café - um tipo de café, uma bebida - isso deixaria todos vocês felizes, e então pedisse que avaliassem aquele café, a pontuação média em essa sala para café seria cerca de 60 em uma escala de 0 a 100. If, however, you allowed me to break you into coffee clusters, maybe three or four coffee clusters, and I could make coffee just for each of those individual clusters, your scores would go from 60 to 75 or 78. Se, no entanto, você me permitisse dividi-lo em cachos de café, talvez três ou quatro cachos de café, e eu pudesse fazer café apenas para cada um desses cachos individuais, sua pontuação iria de 60 a 75 ou 78. 但是,如果您允许我将您分为几个咖啡群,也许是三到四个咖啡群,而我可以只为每个单独的咖啡群煮咖啡,那么您的分数将从60分提高到75分或78分。 The difference between coffee at 60 and coffee at 78 is a difference between coffee that makes you wince, and coffee that makes you deliriously happy. A diferença entre o café aos 60 e o café aos 78 é uma diferença entre o café que faz você estremecer e o café que o deixa delirantemente feliz. That is the final, and I think most beautiful lesson, of Howard Moskowitz. Это последний, и я думаю, самый красивый урок Говарда Московича.

That in embracing the diversity of human beings, we will find a surer way to true happiness. Que ao abraçar a diversidade dos seres humanos, encontraremos um caminho mais seguro para a verdadeira felicidade. Thank you.