1.06 (V) 1.5 Making the Leap 1.06 (V) 1.5 Wykonywanie skoku 1.06 (V) 1.5 Прыжок 1.06 (V) 1.5 飞跃

Hi, I'm Ethan Mollick. Cześć, jestem Ethan Mollick. 嗨，我是伊桑·莫里克。 I want to talk to you about actually taking the leap to launching your own startup. Chcę z wami porozmawiać o tym, jak zrobić krok w kierunku uruchomienia własnego startupu. 我想和你谈谈如何真正跨出第一步来创办自己的初创公司。 So there is something about this idea of taking a leap that is both scary and compel I write or jumping off into your new startup in changing your life forever. Więc jest coś w tym pomyśle wykonania skoku, który jest zarówno przerażający, jak i zniewalający, piszę lub wskakuję do nowego startupu, aby na zawsze zmienić swoje życie. 因此，这种飞跃的想法既令人恐惧又迫使我写下或跳入您的新创业公司以永远改变您的生活。 Obviously, if you're taking this course, it's something you're interested in. 显然，如果你正在学习这门课程，那么它就是你感兴趣的东西。 So let me tell you the first advice I have if you're thinking about taking a leap which is, "Don't leap before you look." Więc pozwól, że powiem ci pierwszą radę, jaką mam, jeśli myślisz o zrobieniu skoku, a mianowicie: „Nie skacz, zanim spojrzysz”. 所以让我告诉你，如果你正在考虑迈出一大步，我的第一个建议是，“在你看之前不要跳跃。” The whole world revolution in startup strategy that you're learning about in all of the lectures here is all about the increasingly powerful techniques, we have to do experimentation and lean startup techniques that I do experiment and figure out whether your startup idea is a good idea or not before you actually go and leap off into the unknown. 你在这里的所有讲座中学习的全球创业战略革命都是关于越来越强大的技术，我们必须做实验和我做实验的精益创业技术，并弄清楚你的创业想法是否是一个好在您真正跳入未知世界之前，您是否有想法。 So my first piece of advice for you is, make sure you've use those techniques to actually plan your business in advance to have done experiments, test assumptions, built MVPs because as much as you can before you actually end up putting your job to launch a company. 所以我给你的第一条建议是，确保你已经使用这些技术提前实际规划你的业务，以完成实验、测试假设、构建 MVP，因为在你真正结束你的工作之前尽可能多地创办一家公司。 Also consider your principal affordable loss. Weź również pod uwagę swoją główną stratę, na którą można sobie pozwolić. 还要考虑您的主要可负担损失。 Studies of successful startup founders by Saras Sarasvathy at eVA, I've found that says all founders tend to think about affordable loss. eVA 的 Saras Sarasvathy 对成功的初创公司创始人进行的研究表明，所有创始人都倾向于考虑可承受的损失。 How much can they afford to spend in terms of time and money to find out if their idea is a good one before they make the decision to go or not? 在他们决定去或不去之前，他们可以花多少时间和金钱来确定他们的想法是否好？ So you should know in advance, how much effort you are willing to put in to figure out whether your startup idea is good or bad before you actually take the leap into the unknown? 所以你应该提前知道，在你真正迈向未知之前，你愿意付出多少努力来弄清楚你的创业想法是好是坏？ In general, test your ideas rigorously. Ogólnie rygorystycznie testuj swoje pomysły. The more you can do to reduce risk, the better off you'll be. Im więcej możesz zrobić, aby zmniejszyć ryzyko, tym lepiej dla Ciebie. 您可以为降低风险做的越多，您的生活就会越好。 The more informative you be in deciding on whether or not to launch. 您在决定是否启动时提供的信息越多。 When you do launch, have more successful you're likely to be as a result. 当您启动时，您可能会因此获得更大的成功。 When you're actually going to take that leap? 你什么时候真正要迈出这一步？ Think about the three categories of risk you have to worry about. So the first risk are known issues or known knowns. Tak więc pierwszym ryzykiem są znane problemy lub znane wiadome. 因此，第一个风险是已知问题或已知知识。 So there's a bunch of things that any founder needs to think about. 因此，任何创始人都需要考虑很多事情。 How I deal with the potential cut to my income of leaving my job to launch a startup or not taking another job in return? Jak radzę sobie z potencjalną redukcją dochodów wynikającą z odejścia z pracy w celu uruchomienia startupu lub niepodjęcia innej pracy w zamian? 我如何应对因离职创业或不换工作而可能导致收入减少的情况？ How my partner and family feel? What are the emotional reactions going to beat his startup? Jakie będą reakcje emocjonalne jego startupu? 什么样的情绪反应会击败他的创业公司？ What's going to happen to my job when I go? 我离开后我的工作会怎样？ Will people in this industry want to hire me again? Do I want to change the industries entirely? 我想完全改变这些行业吗？ How does this change my job hunt of the future? Jak to zmieni moje poszukiwanie pracy w przyszłości? 这对我未来的求职有何影响？ These are things that you should be able to nail down before you launch your company or at least think about in a deep way. To są rzeczy, które powinieneś umieć przyswoić przed uruchomieniem swojej firmy lub przynajmniej głęboko przemyśleć. 这些是你在创办公司之前应该能够确定的事情，或者至少要深入思考一下。 So you should consider all of those questions. You also need to consider the known risks. 您还需要考虑已知风险。 Where are you going to get funding from? You don't know the exact to answer now. 你现在不知道确切的答案。 But do you have a plan to seek out funding from different funding sources? Are you going to apply the things you've learned in the lectures here to do that properly? 你打算应用你在这里的讲座中学到的东西来正确地做到这一点吗？ Will your product actually work? 你的产品真的有用吗？ Are you going to take the advice of all of the other professors talking here about, how to build a successful product, how to prototype, how to make sure that things are in place? 你会听取所有其他教授的建议吗？如何构建成功的产品，如何制作原型，如何确保一切就绪？ When will you know the answer to these things? 你什么时候才能知道这些事情的答案呢？ Do you have the money and time to get there? 你有钱和时间去那里吗？ Then there's a bunch of hazards. 然后就是一大堆隐患。 Things that are unknown unknowns. 未知的事物未知。 Things that happen in life, but then you can't predict. 生活中发生的事情，但你无法预测。 How are you going to accommodate for these things in your startup company? So what happens if you get sick? 那么如果你生病了怎么办？ What happens if there's economic downturn, or a boom, or a technology changes? 如果出现经济衰退、繁荣或技术变革，会发生什么情况？ So, these are not always easy things to plan for, but their categories you need to keep in mind. 因此，这些并不总是很容易规划，但您需要牢记它们的类别。 So how do you address these? 那么你如何解决这些问题呢？ For your known issues, you should have answers already. 对于您已知的问题，您应该已经有了答案。 You should have a sense already about how you're going to deal with the income change. 您应该已经了解您将如何应对收入变化。 Have you saved up money in a side? Zaoszczędziłeś pieniądze na boku? 你在一边存钱了吗？ What happens to your job when you go? Co dzieje się z twoją pracą, kiedy odchodzisz? 当你离开时，你的工作会怎样？ For known risks, you should use all the techniques we have in the course to reduce those risks. So we have classes on, how to think about product development in a safe way? 所以我们上课，如何以安全的方式考虑产品开发？ We have classes on how to end of courses and lectures on how to think about minimizing financial risks. 我们有关于如何结束课程的课程和关于如何考虑最小化财务风险的讲座。 You should go through those issues. 你应该解决这些问题。 For hazards, there's unknown unknowns like the idea that someone might get sick or you have take care of a family member. Jeśli chodzi o zagrożenia, istnieją nieznane niewiadome, takie jak pomysł, że ktoś może zachorować lub opiekujesz się członkiem rodziny. 对于危险，有未知的未知数，例如有人可能生病或您照顾了家人。 You have to leave slack. 你必须留下懈怠。 If you're so busy and you so worn out and you have no financial resources left for your startup, then these unknown unknowns might hit you in the head, and there's no possible alternatives. Jeśli jesteś tak zajęty, wyczerpany i nie masz już środków finansowych na swój startup, to te nieznane niewiadome mogą uderzyć Cię w głowę i nie ma alternatywy. 如果你太忙，太累了，没有足够的资金来创业，那么这些未知的未知数可能会击中你的头，而且别无选择。 So you want to make sure that you have some cushion to rely on. Also, think about remembering escalation of commitment. 另外，考虑记住承诺的升级。 If you start telling everyone, you're launching your startup company, you start putting resources into it. 如果你开始告诉每个人，你正在创办你的初创公司，你就会开始投入资源。 It becomes very easy psychologically to keep committing to a course of action. Z psychologicznego punktu widzenia bardzo łatwo jest nadal angażować się w działania. 从心理上来说，坚持采取行动变得非常容易。 So make sure you're clear-eyed and using things like hypothesis testing and lean startups to think about whether your startup's going to fail or succeed, and make sure to be able to walk away or pivot if you're heading in the wrong direction. Upewnij się więc, że masz jasne oczy i używasz takich rzeczy, jak testowanie hipotez i lean startupy, aby zastanowić się, czy Twój startup poniesie porażkę lub odniesie sukces, i upewnij się, że jesteś w stanie odejść lub zmienić kierunek, jeśli zmierzasz w złym kierunku . 因此，请确保您头脑清醒，并使用诸如假设检验和精益创业之类的方法来思考您的创业公司是会失败还是会成功，并确保在您朝着错误的方向前进时能够走开或转向. Remember, there's nothing certain here. 请记住，这里没有什么是确定的。 I can't give you even with all these classes the guarantee of we succeed. 即使有所有这些课程，我也不能给你我们成功的保证。 I have some of the best entrepreneurs in the world that come out of the classes we teach here at Wharton. Mam jednych z najlepszych przedsiębiorców na świecie, którzy wychodzą z zajęć, które prowadzimy tutaj, w Wharton. 我有一些世界上最好的企业家，他们来自我们在沃顿商学院教授的课程。 I can't tell you with certainty, but who's going to succeed or who's going to fail just when I see their pitches. Nie mogę powiedzieć z całą pewnością, ale kto odniesie sukces, a kto poniesie porażkę, gdy tylko zobaczę ich propozycje. Only later when they started succeed or fail, do I know who's made and who hasn't. 只有当他们开始成功或失败时，我才知道谁成功了，谁没有成功。 So there's no certainty out there. 所以那里没有确定性。 You have to be ready to deal with that sort of risk. 你必须准备好应对这种风险。 On the other hand, there's good news too. Startups are wonderful. 初创公司很棒。 So this is actually a graph from my research with Matthew Bidwell here at Wharton, where I surveyed every living Wharton alumni. What you can see here is the happiness level of Wharton alumni. 你在这里看到的是沃顿商学院校友的幸福指数。 That line at the top is the average happiness level of entrepreneurs, and every other dot is the happiness level and 95 percent confidence interval for every other industry at Wharton. 顶部的那条线是企业家的平均幸福水平，每隔一个点就是沃顿商学院其他所有行业的幸福水平和 95% 的置信区间。 Entrepreneurs, even when they fail or among the happiest people at Wharton. 企业家，即使他们失败了，或者是沃顿商学院最幸福的人。 So there is satisfaction that comes out of doing this, there's freedom that comes out of this. 所以这样做会带来满足感，这样做会带来自由。 So I can't tell you personally whether it's time to leap or not, but I can tell you that you know the things in this course to make sure you're prepared, make sure you're handling that there's known knowns and you know what's going to happen. Więc nie mogę powiedzieć ci osobiście, czy nadszedł czas na skok, czy nie, ale mogę ci powiedzieć, że znasz rzeczy na tym kursie, aby upewnić się, że jesteś przygotowany, upewnij się, że radzisz sobie z tym, co jest znane i wiesz co się stanie. 所以我不能亲自告诉你是否是时候跳跃了，但我可以告诉你，你知道本课程中的内容，以确保你做好准备，确保你正在处理已知的知识，并且你知道会发生什么。 Make sure you're planning for the unknown uncertainties, and make sure you leave slack for hazards, and then make sure you're starting your journey on the right foot. Upewnij się, że planujesz nieznane niepewności i upewnij się, że zostawiasz sobie trochę czasu na zagrożenia, a następnie upewnij się, że zaczynasz swoją podróż właściwą nogą. 确保您为未知的不确定性做好了计划，并确保您对危险留有余裕，然后确保您以正确的方式开始您的旅程。 You know everything you need to have for taking these classes, so to try and launch this. 您知道参加这些课程所需的一切，因此请尝试启动它。 I think that you will be able to plan out a path that leads you to happiness and success. 我认为你将能够规划出一条通往幸福和成功的道路。