1.05 (V) 1.4 The Pivot

This session is called The Pivot. Pivot is a term you hear quite a bit in entrepreneurship. And a pivot refers to a significant change in direction by a new venture, usually because the original plan isn't working out. So you proceed with Plan A and then you pivot into Plan B. For example, Keya Dannenbaum founded a company called ElectNext. And what ElectNext did, was provide to voters information about candidates on an issue by issue basis. ElectNext 所做的就是逐一向选民提供有关候选人的信息。 So you could reflect how you felt about guns, how you felt about taxation, how you felt about social issues. And ElectNext, would tell you which candidates matched up with you based on your interest. The problem with ElectNext, was that it was really seasonal, so during major elections, you could get a lot of customers interested. But then it would be, at least in the United States, sort of a long four years before the next round of interest. So Keya pivoted into really a quite different business called Versa. And what Versa did was to try to build the engagement with voters, really with the public at large, throughout the year by allowing them to participate on Op-Ed pages in printed publications and on the web. Versa 所做的就是通过允许选民参与印刷出版物和网络上的专栏页面，尝试全年与选民（实际上是广大公众）建立联系。 So Versa was Plan B, and was her pivot in response to a failure to really get what we might call traction with Plan A, with ElectNext. 因此，Versa 是 B 计划，也是她针对 A 计划（即 ElectNext）未能真正获得我们所谓的牵引力而做出的回应。 Now I'm of two minds about pivoting. On the one hand, of course, if Plan A is failing, you gotta go with Plan B. And entrepreneurs face a lot of intrinsic uncertainty, when they start a new venture and so if that uncertainty is resolved, and it turns out that Plan A just isn't going to work, then there's no harm in changing direction. 当然，一方面，如果 A 计划失败了，你就必须采用 B 计划。企业家在开始一项新事业时面临着很多内在的不确定性，因此，如果这种不确定性得到解决，事实证明，计划A 根本行不通，那么改变方向也没有坏处。 Given the intrinsic uncertainty in new ventures, pivoting is extremely common. I would say at least a quarter of the ventures that I'm involved with, will do some kind of pivot. On the other hand, if you jump head along into the first opportunity you consider, and without really some careful analysis, then the pivot might have been avoided, and a waste of time and money could have been avoided, with a little bit of work up front. 另一方面，如果你一头扎进你考虑的第一个机会，并且没有进行真正的仔细分析，那么只需做一点工作，就可以避免转向，并且可以避免时间和金钱的浪费。在前面。 For example, when I was 25, I spent several months of my life building a snow bike that was based on having a tractor tread, instead of a rear wheel. And this was part of a plan to cross Antarctica by bicycle. Now, what I had failed to do, was really do a careful analysis of the topography of Antarctica. 现在，我没有做的是真正仔细分析南极洲的地形。 Instead of investing months in building a bicycle, I should've done a little research, about what the train actually looks like in Antarctica. This was before the days of Google Images by the way. 顺便说一下，这是在谷歌图片出现之前。 And had I known what the train would have looked like, I would have realized that the snow bike was really a foolish idea to begin with. 如果我知道火车会是什么样子，我就会意识到雪地自行车从一开始就是一个愚蠢的想法。 One effective strategy for dealing with uncertainty, is to actually consider several possible alternatives from the outset, to spend a little bit of time and effort to explore them. And only when some of that initial uncertainty is resolved, to then commit and invest and develop. And that reduces the probability of having to make a pivot. Nevertheless, as I said before, entrepreneurship is intrinsically fraught with uncertainty. If you're not doing something new and uncertain, then you're really not doing something interesting in entrepreneurship. As a result of that intrinsic uncertainty, it's not at all common to have to pivot. 由于这种内在的不确定性，必须进行调整的情况并不常见。 But, smart entrepreneurs, are those who can marry an exploration of several concepts with a willingness to pivot when, and if, the concept they pick doesn't materialize as planned. 但是，聪明的企业家是那些能够将对多个概念进行探索并愿意在他们选择的概念没有按计划实现时进行调整的人。