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English Learning for Curious Minds, Episode 255: The Cobra Effect [2]

Episode 255: The Cobra Effect [2]

thus they were paid twice - once for selling the drug, and another for destroying the crop.

Today, Afghanistan is the world's number one producer of opium

and is responsible for 80% of all of the opium produced worldwide.

And for our last incentive we are going to go to a country, and

indeed a continent, that we haven't talked about yet in this episode.

We're going to South America, and heading to Bogota in Colombia.

If you have been to Bogota, you will probably have spent quite some time stuck in traffic.

The city's traffic is notorious, and with an over-reliance on private

cars and an inefficient public transport system there is a vicious cycle.

Public transport is bad so people use cars, so there are more cars on

the road, there's more pollution, and the situation gets even worse.

In 1998 the local government proposed what it no doubt thought was an innovative solution.

In fact, it was inspired by a policy from Mexico City 8 years before, but the

local government thought it would help solve the problem of traffic and pollution.

Cars with different combinations of letters and numbers would be allowed to drive

on different days, meaning that drivers wouldn't be able to use their car every day.

Good idea, in theory, but what it led to in practice was an increase in

the number of cars per household, as people bought second cars in order to

be able to drive on the days when their primary car wouldn't be able to.

To make matters worse, because buying a car is expensive, these

second cars would often be cheaper, older, and more polluting models.

So instead of encouraging people to take public transport on the days of the week they

couldn't drive, many just switched to more polluting cars, meaning that there were

just as many cars on the road, and they were pumping out more and more exhaust fumes.

As a result, pollution increased, not decreased.

And we could go on.

The Chinese listeners may remember Chairman Mao's “4 pests” campaign,

which encouraged the eradication of “mosquitoes, rodents, flies, and

sparrows”, which he believed were responsible for destroying the crops.

There were huge incentives to get rid of these pests, and the population,

especially of sparrows - which are small birds - was decimated.

But it turns out that these sparrows played a pretty important role in the crop ecosystem.

They ate insects.

And without any sparrows to eat the insects there was a huge infestation,

damaging the crops even more than the sparrows, and contributing to a mass

famine that is thought to have killed anywhere from 15 to 60 million people.

And if you have ever travelled on a train in the United States and thought - hmm, this

doesn't seem to be a particularly direct route, the track seems to be looping from side

to side, perhaps you were travelling on a piece of track built when the United States

Congress decided to pay railway builders per distance of track laid, thus encouraging

dishonest railway construction companies to lay track in loops rather than in a direct line.

Now, it might be easy for us to say, with the benefit of hindsight, to look back

at all of these examples and think “surely they could have thought of that before”.

Or at least, surely they could have learned from other examples.

But while there might only be a small group of people who devise, who create, such a

scheme, as soon as it is public there are thousands, millions, perhaps even hundreds

of millions of people for whom this scheme might present a money-making opportunity.

And, try as you might, for all of the second, third, and fourth-degree thinking, all of

the brainstorming about how someone might try to abuse the system, or how there might

be problems that people hadn't thought about, history certainly suggests that, try

as you might, it's easy to forget something that might later seem blindingly obvious.

As the author of Freakonomics, Steve Levitt, once said, “When you introduce an incentive scheme,

you have to just admit to yourself that no matter how clever you think you are, there's a

pretty good chance that someone far more clever than yourself will figure out a way to beat it.”

OK then, that is it for today's episode on The Cobra Effect.

I hope it's been an interesting one, and that you've learnt something new.

As always, I would love to know what you thought of this episode.

No doubt there are examples of the Cobra Effect that you have

seen in your town, city or country, and I would love to know.

What were their intentions?

What actually happened?

Do you think this was something utterly predictable,

or did someone find some ingenious way around it?

I would love to know, so let's get this discussion started.

You can head right into our community forum, which is at

community.leonardoenglish.com and get chatting away to other curious minds.

You've been listening to English Learning for Curious Minds, by Leonardo English.

I'm Alastair Budge, you stay safe, and I'll catch you in the next episode.

Episode 255: The Cobra Effect [2] Folge 255: Der Cobra-Effekt [2] Episodio 255: El Efecto Cobra [2] Épisode 255 : L'effet Cobra [2] Episodio 255: L'effetto Cobra [2] 第255話コブラ・エフェクト [2] Odcinek 255: Efekt Kobry [2] Episódio 255: O Efeito Cobra [2] Эпизод 255: Эффект Кобры [2] Bölüm 255: Kobra Etkisi [2] Епізод 255: Ефект кобри [2]. 第255集:眼镜蛇效应[2] 第255集:眼鏡蛇效應[2]

thus they were paid twice - once for selling the drug, and another for destroying the crop.

Today, Afghanistan is the world's number one producer of opium

and is responsible for 80% of all of the opium produced worldwide.

And for our last incentive we are going to go to a country, and

indeed a continent, that we haven't talked about yet in this episode.

We're going to South America, and heading to Bogota in Colombia.

If you have been to Bogota, you will probably have spent quite some time stuck in traffic.

The city's traffic is notorious, and with an over-reliance on private La circulation dans la ville est tristement célèbre et, en raison d'une dépendance excessive à l'égard des véhicules privés, il n'est pas possible d'obtenir un permis de conduire.

cars and an inefficient public transport system there is a vicious cycle. автомобилей и неэффективной системы общественного транспорта возникает порочный круг.

Public transport is bad so people use cars, so there are more cars on

the road, there's more pollution, and the situation gets even worse.

In 1998 the local government proposed what it no doubt thought was an innovative solution.

In fact, it was inspired by a policy from Mexico City 8 years before, but the На самом деле, это было вдохновлено политикой Мехико 8 лет назад, но

local government thought it would help solve the problem of traffic and pollution.

Cars with different combinations of letters and numbers would be allowed to drive Автомобили с разными комбинациями букв и цифр будут допущены к вождению

on different days, meaning that drivers wouldn't be able to use their car every day.

Good idea, in theory, but what it led to in practice was an increase in

the number of cars per household, as people bought second cars in order to

be able to drive on the days when their primary car wouldn't be able to. иметь возможность водить машину в те дни, когда их основная машина не сможет.

To make matters worse, because buying a car is expensive, these

second cars would often be cheaper, older, and more polluting models.

So instead of encouraging people to take public transport on the days of the week they

couldn't drive, many just switched to more polluting cars, meaning that there were

just as many cars on the road, and they were pumping out more and more exhaust fumes. На дорогах было столько же автомобилей, и они выбрасывали все больше и больше выхлопных газов.

As a result, pollution increased, not decreased.

And we could go on.

The Chinese listeners may remember Chairman Mao's “4 pests” campaign, Los oyentes chinos quizá recuerden la campaña de las "4 plagas" del Presidente Mao,

which encouraged the eradication of “mosquitoes, rodents, flies, and

sparrows”, which he believed were responsible for destroying the crops.

There were huge incentives to get rid of these pests, and the population,

especially of sparrows - which are small birds - was decimated.

But it turns out that these sparrows played a pretty important role in the crop ecosystem.

They ate insects.

And without any sparrows to eat the insects there was a huge infestation,

damaging the crops even more than the sparrows, and contributing to a mass

famine that is thought to have killed anywhere from 15 to 60 million people. fome que se acredita ter matado de 15 a 60 milhões de pessoas. 据估计,这场饥荒导致1500万至6000万人死亡。

And if you have ever travelled on a train in the United States and thought - hmm, this E se você já viajou de trem nos Estados Unidos e pensou - hmm, isso

doesn't seem to be a particularly direct route, the track seems to be looping from side не кажется особенно прямым маршрутом, дорожка кажется зацикленной сбоку

to side, perhaps you were travelling on a piece of track built when the United States в сторону, возможно, вы ехали по участку пути, построенному, когда Соединенные Штаты

Congress decided to pay railway builders per distance of track laid, thus encouraging

dishonest railway construction companies to lay track in loops rather than in a direct line.

Now, it might be easy for us to say, with the benefit of hindsight, to look back Теперь нам может быть легко сказать, оглядываясь назад, оглядываясь назад.

at all of these examples and think “surely they could have thought of that before”. на все эти примеры и думают «наверняка они могли подумать об этом раньше».

Or at least, surely they could have learned from other examples.

But while there might only be a small group of people who devise, who create, such a Но хотя может существовать лишь небольшая группа людей, которые изобретают, создают такое

scheme, as soon as it is public there are thousands, millions, perhaps even hundreds

of millions of people for whom this scheme might present a money-making opportunity. миллионов людей, для которых эта схема может предоставить возможность заработать деньги.

And, try as you might, for all of the second, third, and fourth-degree thinking, all of И, как ни старайся, для всего мышления второй, третьей и четвертой степени, все 尽你所能,对于所有第二、第三和第四级思维,所有的

the brainstorming about how someone might try to abuse the system, or how there might мозговой штурм о том, как кто-то может попытаться злоупотребить системой или как

be problems that people hadn't thought about, history certainly suggests that, try быть проблемы, о которых люди не думали, история, безусловно, предполагает, что попробуйте

as you might, it's easy to forget something that might later seem blindingly obvious. как вы могли бы, легко забыть что-то, что позже может показаться ослепляюще очевидным.

As the author of Freakonomics, Steve Levitt, once said, “When you introduce an incentive scheme,

you have to just admit to yourself that no matter how clever you think you are, there's a

pretty good chance that someone far more clever than yourself will figure out a way to beat it.” довольно велика вероятность того, что кто-то гораздо более умный, чем вы, найдет способ победить его.

OK then, that is it for today's episode on The Cobra Effect.

I hope it's been an interesting one, and that you've learnt something new. Я надеюсь, что это было интересно, и что вы узнали что-то новое.

As always, I would love to know what you thought of this episode.

No doubt there are examples of the Cobra Effect that you have

seen in your town, city or country, and I would love to know.

What were their intentions?

What actually happened?

Do you think this was something utterly predictable,

or did someone find some ingenious way around it?

I would love to know, so let's get this discussion started. Я хотел бы знать, так что давайте начнем эту дискуссию.

You can head right into our community forum, which is at

community.leonardoenglish.com and get chatting away to other curious minds.

You've been listening to English Learning for Curious Minds, by Leonardo English.

I'm Alastair Budge, you stay safe, and I'll catch you in the next episode.