Is this going to be the third torpedo that sinks the EU?
(I have to confess that I know almost literally nothing about current Italian politics. But if I were Italian, I don’t know whether I could desist from voting for Virginia Raggi! :-P)
I don’t think so, not in the short run at least. We’re actually voting for a constitutional reform, so nothing really EU related. A no vote this Sunday might still have repercussions in that sense.
After a no vote (for what it’s worth, it was leading at around 54% two weeks ago), Renzi, our prime minister, would resign. Political and economic instability would probably follow (or not, if we look at Brexit or Trump) - the Financial Times predicted that 8 banks would fail. Some say that a caretaker government might be installed.
But should we go to elections soon, the 5star movement (M5S) might have a good chance of winning. It all depends on the electoral law (yet to be decided).
The M5S is seen as the anti-establishment. It calls, among other things, for abrogating EU fiscal commitments, and for a referendum on Italy’s membership in the euro. But it’s not that easy. Our constitution bans referenda about international treaties: a constitutional amendment might be necessary even before calling a referendum (that amendment would require a two-thirds-majority vote by both houses of parliament, or possibly yet another referendum.)
I think in the long run The Euro is in trouble no matter what happens. The western world has not been able to answer the question: How do we employ the middle working class and give them good quality lives??
In my view, unless we have some serious changes the Euro model is sadly unsustainable. Especially as more and more African immigration comes to Europe.
Renzi departs…
this is going to make future European trips much more annoying: having to exchange currency and go through customs again at every border when crossing from Austria into Italy. I’m Probably going to pass on picking italian as my next language on Lingq.
That’s a good thing. More pasta for me.
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And more pizza for me!
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Oh yea, I forgot about how delicious the food is.
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