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COURSERA: The Modern World, Part Two: Global History since 1910, W5.06 New Empires and Confederations (2)

W5.06 New Empires and Confederations (2)

In an age when coal and steel were still seen as the barometers of national military power, France and Germany, those ancient enemies, are going to pool multinational control of those vital resources. That's becoming the new wave of the future in the Europe of the 1950s. Here's Monnet and Schuman working together in the beginning of the 50s. Here's Time Magazine celebrating Monnet's achievement. You see that cheerful Frenchman depicted in this Time Magazine cover of 1961. You see all the different flags in the background and the byline: New Strength for the West. Europe unites in the common market, or more technically, the European Economic Community. But it is worth pausing and reflecting on what a break this is from everything we've been seeing in the story of European history up to this point. So, you have the anti-communist confederation, NATO, layered on top of a new European Economic Community that brings those countries together, and you see the ingredients: security, prosperity, organizational pathways for their rebirth, their renewal in the world economic system and a European economic system. Something similar also happens in East Asia: What I call here a SCAPanese model. What's SCAP? SCAP is the acronym for the Supreme Command of the Allied Powers. That was the allied occupation authority in postwar Japan. SCAP and the Japanese worked together to create a new model Japanese constitution, very much influenced by liberal and social democratic models. Is it any surprise then that the ruling party in Japan for generations called itself the Liberal Democratic Party or LDP. Here is the Japanese prime minister, Yoshida Shigeru, who had been a pre-war politician beaten down by the militarists. He's now in charge of the new SCAPanese postwar Japan. Yoshida, here, is signing a treaty of San Francisco in April of 1951. This treaty settles the war time issues between Japan and her former enemies. The Soviet Union didn't take part, but you can see other former enemies that are there, including the United States, represented here by the American Secretary of State, Dean Acheson, and the chief American envoy who had worked on the negotiations, John Foster Dulles, who had become President Eisenhower's Secretary of State. So, as Japan finds the solution to its security problems in a political and a military alliance with the United States, Japan is also at the hub of a new East Asian Economic Community. Not the kind of exclusive imperial economic community that Japanese militarists had envisioned in the 1930s, this one is between sovereign states. So, again we're back at our map of the world of 1956. Think of Japan, then, as the economic and security hub of all kinds of outward investment and cooperation with the offshore economies of East Asia: in Korea, the Philippines, Hong Kong, South Vietnam, Indonesia, uniting them in a trade and financial network that then spans the Pacific, with the United States as a critical market for exports, because the United States is now playing the free trade role that Britain had played in the 1800s. Happy to accept imports from other countries, even if those other countries weren't necessarily as open to imports in return, understanding that those countries' economic development would be important to general economic prosperity for everyone. The results are significant. This is a chart of per capita GDP, production per person, in some different countries and regions. The United States is at the top and between 1946 and 56 grows steadily. Western Europe, coming from a lower base, is growing at an even more rapid rate up to 1956. And that's headed to continue. You see here the Soviet Union, and you have a lower base still, devastated by the war, growing somewhat slowly, but moving forward. Japan, down even lower, also beginning to grow again, at the same pace as the Soviet Union. What's hard to visualize in the 1950s is that Japan, which still seemed like a very poor country in the 1950s, is about to cross over the Soviet Union's progress and begin moving rapidly up towards high income status. That will happen really in the 1960s and �70s. But the seeds have been laid for it already. If you look down here at this chart, you see South Korea in the Mid-1950s, still not taking off yet. Their take-off will happen later. This is still a desperately poor and war-ravaged country during the 1950s, getting a lot of foreign aid from the United States. China and India, both very, very poor, having trouble taking off. India under democratic socialism, and China under Mao's rule. Well one of the things that you'll notice then from this complex story of partnerships, institutions, associations is the growth of a kind of consensus politics, again the relationships between big government, big business, big unions which also creates a kind of consensus economics that's created the whole class warfare environment of the first half of the twentieth century. We traced a little bit of the story as to how this happened. The development of different kinds of political parties and ideologies, different kinds of institutions that require a lot of cooperation. Now, let's just think for a moment. Why did it happen? Clearly part of that answer has got to be the experience of the Second World War. A sense that we can't, we won't, go back to the politics of extremes. We can't, won't go back to the politics of dictatorships, at least in some of these countries, which is what makes consensus politics, with all of its materialism and unsatisfactory compromises, still seem more appealing than the alternatives. In the mid-1950s, the communist world wasn't static, either. In 1953, Stalin died. This produces results in two ongoing wars. The Korean War had been a stalemate for years. Now, with Stalin dead, with the new Eisenhower administration threatening to escalate the war if it's not brought to a successful conclusion, American power seeming stronger now, the North Koreans and their Chinese backers decide to go ahead and sign an armistice agreement, not a peace treaty, just a suspension of hostilities. That suspension of hostilities froze the old battle lines in place along a demilitarized zone, where the old warring sides still confront each other today. The peace precariously holding now after more than 60 years of armistice. In Indochina, the war between the French and the Viet Minh, who'd been trying to throw the French out, comes to a conclusion at a big international conference in 1954 in Geneva. The outcome of that conference was an agreement that the French would leave, Vietnam would hold elections. The elections are never held. Instead what happens is, in the North, where the Communist Vietnamese were strongest, they created new state called North Vietnam. In the southern part of Vietnam, a new state is created called the Republic of Vietnam. What a lot of people were beginning to wonder then, in the mid-1950s, is, in the aftermath of Stalin's death, with some resolution of these conflicts, could there be a wider opportunity for a thaw in the Cold War. There's some really important turnovers in the leadership of the international communist movement. In Western Europe, communism was still a powerful movement with a lot of long-time followers, people who had believed deeply in communism as an answer to the great turmoils and struggles of their youth. They more and more becoming a community of outsiders, though, in their countries. There are a few other communists, like those in Yugoslavia, that try to espouse an independent path, led by a long time communist fighter who had taken the name Josip Broz Tito, T-I-T-O. They say we're going to find an independent path, independent of the Soviet Union. There was some real danger for years that Stalin would invade Yugoslavia, or somehow get Tito out of the way. But Stalin dies, Tito survives, and puts in place a kind of authoritarian state capitalism that's a little more like a mix between communism and democratic socialism. In the Soviet Union itself, there is a renewed burst of attention to modernist development, to great new land development projects, hydro-electric projects, other things that will help take the Soviet Union into modern development. There's a lot of sharing of technical expertise, industrial expertise, with China, really kind of a warm period there in the mid-1950s in Soviet-Chinese relations. Here you see one of the relatively few happy moments between the new Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev and Mao Zedong. But many old communists wonder whether these new communists are still committed to the global revolution and to the triumph of the communist cause, whether they're still as committed to the overthrow of capitalism, reactionaries, and imperialists. That's the question Khrushchev faces when he decides to take on the legacy of Stalin in 1956. Here again our old friends at TIME Magazine, through their website, are doing a wonderful job of trying to graphically portray what Khrushchev represents. This is a cover from April 1956 for Russia's Khrushchev. The occasion was Khrushchev was paying a visit to London. Alright, so here's the suspicious British lion eying their Soviet visitor. You see the Kremlin Tower is being represented here with this happy smiling face, in his right hand he's holding a bouquet of roses [LAUGH] and behind his back, in his left hand, is a spiked club with the portrait of Stalin apparently being trampled underfoot. So what do you make of this visitor to the West? Khrushchev is a blend of contradictions. Impulsive, earthy, even crude at times. From humble beginnings. No experience in world travel. A lot of experience in the upper levels of the Soviet Communist Party. He'd survived all the purges. He'd gotten through the war years, he'd been involved in the worst of the Stalin years, but he hoped for other things. He had high hopes for what the Soviet Union could become, was sure that it could catch up and even get ahead of the West in its economic development. He wanted to concentrate on domestic affairs, but at the same time, he also wanted to show that the Soviet Union was strong, that he was militant. That he'd demonstrate his strength, his certainty that he was tougher than the Western leaders were, would lead him to make some pretty fateful choices in the coming years. Now, contrast, though, Khrushchev with Mao Zedong. If anything, Mao Zedong now feels that if had been Stalin's junior partner, he really should be the elder statesman when it comes to someone like Khrushchev. Mao feels like he's had as much experience in leading and building a revolution as Khrushchev has had, and that this now needs to be a relationship of equals. Indeed, it's not too long before Mao begins telling Khrushchev, you need to share with us your nuclear weapons technology. You need to give us the nuclear bomb so that we can stand up to the United States, just like you are. Khrushchev is increasingly uneasy about that. That's a little bit of the background as we get into the crisis year of 1956. Khrushchev convenes the 20th congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and he delivers a long, extraordinary speech recounting the crimes of Stalin. This secret speech soon became public, and even if those crimes were presented in a milder form than we might discuss them today, you can imagine the sensational impact this had for people trained to respect party orthodoxy, party discipline, and who themselves had almost all been involved in some of these activities at one level or another. Mao's reactions to Khrushchev's secret speech was to give a carefully guarded speech of his own, in which he said that Stalin had to be carefully evaluated. There was both good and bad. He tended to think that 70% good and 30% bad. Mao is really deciding that he needs to embark on his own path, that Khrushchev's approach is unstable and maybe not sufficiently revolutionary. He holds his own party congress at which he announces that actually, in China, class struggle has been brought to an end.



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W5.06 New Empires and Confederations (2)

In an age when coal and steel were still seen as the barometers of national military power, France and Germany, those ancient enemies, are going to pool multinational control of those vital resources. That's becoming the new wave of the future in the Europe of the 1950s. Here's Monnet and Schuman working together in the beginning of the 50s. Here's Time Magazine celebrating Monnet's achievement. You see that cheerful Frenchman depicted in this Time Magazine cover of 1961. You see all the different flags in the background and the byline: New Strength for the West. Europe unites in the common market, or more technically, the European Economic Community. But it is worth pausing and reflecting on what a break this is from everything we've been seeing in the story of European history up to this point. So, you have the anti-communist confederation, NATO, layered on top of a new European Economic Community that brings those countries together, and you see the ingredients: security, prosperity, organizational pathways for their rebirth, their renewal in the world economic system and a European economic system. Something similar also happens in East Asia: What I call here a SCAPanese model. What's SCAP? SCAP is the acronym for the Supreme Command of the Allied Powers. That was the allied occupation authority in postwar Japan. SCAP and the Japanese worked together to create a new model Japanese constitution, very much influenced by liberal and social democratic models. Is it any surprise then that the ruling party in Japan for generations called itself the Liberal Democratic Party or LDP. Here is the Japanese prime minister, Yoshida Shigeru, who had been a pre-war politician beaten down by the militarists. He's now in charge of the new SCAPanese postwar Japan. Yoshida, here, is signing a treaty of San Francisco in April of 1951. This treaty settles the war time issues between Japan and her former enemies. The Soviet Union didn't take part, but you can see other former enemies that are there, including the United States, represented here by the American Secretary of State, Dean Acheson, and the chief American envoy who had worked on the negotiations, John Foster Dulles, who had become President Eisenhower's Secretary of State. So, as Japan finds the solution to its security problems in a political and a military alliance with the United States, Japan is also at the hub of a new East Asian Economic Community. Not the kind of exclusive imperial economic community that Japanese militarists had envisioned in the 1930s, this one is between sovereign states. So, again we're back at our map of the world of 1956. Think of Japan, then, as the economic and security hub of all kinds of outward investment and cooperation with the offshore economies of East Asia: in Korea, the Philippines, Hong Kong, South Vietnam, Indonesia, uniting them in a trade and financial network that then spans the Pacific, with the United States as a critical market for exports, because the United States is now playing the free trade role that Britain had played in the 1800s. Happy to accept imports from other countries, even if those other countries weren't necessarily as open to imports in return, understanding that those countries' economic development would be important to general economic prosperity for everyone. The results are significant. This is a chart of per capita GDP, production per person, in some different countries and regions. The United States is at the top and between 1946 and 56 grows steadily. Western Europe, coming from a lower base, is growing at an even more rapid rate up to 1956. And that's headed to continue. You see here the Soviet Union, and you have a lower base still, devastated by the war, growing somewhat slowly, but moving forward. Japan, down even lower, also beginning to grow again, at the same pace as the Soviet Union. What's hard to visualize in the 1950s is that Japan, which still seemed like a very poor country in the 1950s, is about to cross over the Soviet Union's progress and begin moving rapidly up towards high income status. That will happen really in the 1960s and �70s. But the seeds have been laid for it already. If you look down here at this chart, you see South Korea in the Mid-1950s, still not taking off yet. Their take-off will happen later. This is still a desperately poor and war-ravaged country during the 1950s, getting a lot of foreign aid from the United States. China and India, both very, very poor, having trouble taking off. India under democratic socialism, and China under Mao's rule. Well one of the things that you'll notice then from this complex story of partnerships, institutions, associations is the growth of a kind of consensus politics, again the relationships between big government, big business, big unions which also creates a kind of consensus economics that's created the whole class warfare environment of the first half of the twentieth century. We traced a little bit of the story as to how this happened. The development of different kinds of political parties and ideologies, different kinds of institutions that require a lot of cooperation. Now, let's just think for a moment. Why did it happen? Clearly part of that answer has got to be the experience of the Second World War. A sense that we can't, we won't, go back to the politics of extremes. We can't, won't go back to the politics of dictatorships, at least in some of these countries, which is what makes consensus politics, with all of its materialism and unsatisfactory compromises, still seem more appealing than the alternatives. In the mid-1950s, the communist world wasn't static, either. In 1953, Stalin died. This produces results in two ongoing wars. The Korean War had been a stalemate for years. Now, with Stalin dead, with the new Eisenhower administration threatening to escalate the war if it's not brought to a successful conclusion, American power seeming stronger now, the North Koreans and their Chinese backers decide to go ahead and sign an armistice agreement, not a peace treaty, just a suspension of hostilities. That suspension of hostilities froze the old battle lines in place along a demilitarized zone, where the old warring sides still confront each other today. The peace precariously holding now after more than 60 years of armistice. In Indochina, the war between the French and the Viet Minh, who'd been trying to throw the French out, comes to a conclusion at a big international conference in 1954 in Geneva. The outcome of that conference was an agreement that the French would leave, Vietnam would hold elections. The elections are never held. Instead what happens is, in the North, where the Communist Vietnamese were strongest, they created new state called North Vietnam. In the southern part of Vietnam, a new state is created called the Republic of Vietnam. What a lot of people were beginning to wonder then, in the mid-1950s, is, in the aftermath of Stalin's death, with some resolution of these conflicts, could there be a wider opportunity for a thaw in the Cold War. There's some really important turnovers in the leadership of the international communist movement. In Western Europe, communism was still a powerful movement with a lot of long-time followers, people who had believed deeply in communism as an answer to the great turmoils and struggles of their youth. They more and more becoming a community of outsiders, though, in their countries. There are a few other communists, like those in Yugoslavia, that try to espouse an independent path, led by a long time communist fighter who had taken the name Josip Broz Tito, T-I-T-O. They say we're going to find an independent path, independent of the Soviet Union. There was some real danger for years that Stalin would invade Yugoslavia, or somehow get Tito out of the way. But Stalin dies, Tito survives, and puts in place a kind of authoritarian state capitalism that's a little more like a mix between communism and democratic socialism. In the Soviet Union itself, there is a renewed burst of attention to modernist development, to great new land development projects, hydro-electric projects, other things that will help take the Soviet Union into modern development. There's a lot of sharing of technical expertise, industrial expertise, with China, really kind of a warm period there in the mid-1950s in Soviet-Chinese relations. Here you see one of the relatively few happy moments between the new Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev and Mao Zedong. But many old communists wonder whether these new communists are still committed to the global revolution and to the triumph of the communist cause, whether they're still as committed to the overthrow of capitalism, reactionaries, and imperialists. That's the question Khrushchev faces when he decides to take on the legacy of Stalin in 1956. Here again our old friends at TIME Magazine, through their website, are doing a wonderful job of trying to graphically portray what Khrushchev represents. This is a cover from April 1956 for Russia's Khrushchev. The occasion was Khrushchev was paying a visit to London. Alright, so here's the suspicious British lion eying their Soviet visitor. You see the Kremlin Tower is being represented here with this happy smiling face, in his right hand he's holding a bouquet of roses [LAUGH] and behind his back, in his left hand, is a spiked club with the portrait of Stalin apparently being trampled underfoot. So what do you make of this visitor to the West? Khrushchev is a blend of contradictions. Impulsive, earthy, even crude at times. From humble beginnings. No experience in world travel. A lot of experience in the upper levels of the Soviet Communist Party. He'd survived all the purges. He'd gotten through the war years, he'd been involved in the worst of the Stalin years, but he hoped for other things. He had high hopes for what the Soviet Union could become, was sure that it could catch up and even get ahead of the West in its economic development. He wanted to concentrate on domestic affairs, but at the same time, he also wanted to show that the Soviet Union was strong, that he was militant. That he'd demonstrate his strength, his certainty that he was tougher than the Western leaders were, would lead him to make some pretty fateful choices in the coming years. Now, contrast, though, Khrushchev with Mao Zedong. If anything, Mao Zedong now feels that if had been Stalin's junior partner, he really should be the elder statesman when it comes to someone like Khrushchev. Mao feels like he's had as much experience in leading and building a revolution as Khrushchev has had, and that this now needs to be a relationship of equals. Indeed, it's not too long before Mao begins telling Khrushchev, you need to share with us your nuclear weapons technology. You need to give us the nuclear bomb so that we can stand up to the United States, just like you are. Khrushchev is increasingly uneasy about that. That's a little bit of the background as we get into the crisis year of 1956. Khrushchev convenes the 20th congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and he delivers a long, extraordinary speech recounting the crimes of Stalin. This secret speech soon became public, and even if those crimes were presented in a milder form than we might discuss them today, you can imagine the sensational impact this had for people trained to respect party orthodoxy, party discipline, and who themselves had almost all been involved in some of these activities at one level or another. Mao's reactions to Khrushchev's secret speech was to give a carefully guarded speech of his own, in which he said that Stalin had to be carefully evaluated. There was both good and bad. He tended to think that 70% good and 30% bad. Mao is really deciding that he needs to embark on his own path, that Khrushchev's approach is unstable and maybe not sufficiently revolutionary. He holds his own party congress at which he announces that actually, in China, class struggle has been brought to an end.

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