×

We use cookies to help make LingQ better. By visiting the site, you agree to our cookie policy.


image

COURSERA: The Modern World, Part Two: Global History since 1910, W1.01 The Shock of 1914

W1.01 The Shock of 1914

When World War I began, in the first days of August 1914, the world didn't see it coming. It was a shock. For some people it was a glorious shock. For some people it was horrifying. It was a shock. Now historians look back on it. You open up any kind of world history textbook. And you'll see though that looking back on it, we see all sorts of explanations for World War I. There's a whole list of them. Usually we'll start with international rivalry. Every book will say something about the fact that Europe was divided into these two different alliances. Let's take a look at the map of Europe. You see the basic structure of this. The two key alliances were the Central Powers, the core members of the Central Powers these two countries: Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire; on the other side, the Entente. And the key Entente powers were also two countries: France allied with Russia. France and Russia had been allied against Germany and Austria-Hungary since 1894. Now this map, if you look at it, shows Great Britain also as part of that alliance. This is actually not quite right. Great Britain was not a formal member of the Entente at the beginning of the war, though it was clearly on a friendly basis with France. If France was attacked, there was a good chance that Britain would come in, but it wasn't locked into it by formal treaty of alliance. After the war began, Great Britain became part of the Triple Entente. So the basic rivalry is France and Russia versus the aptly-named Central Powers. Other countries would later line up on the side of one or the other. But okay, back to the different causes of World War I. I've thrown a list of the causes here on this slide. International rivalry. These two competing alliances in Europe facing each other, amassing huge armies, buying weapons and so on. Second, you'll see a lot of references to a general atmosphere of militarism, the arms race, as each country is building up its armies and its navies looking for competitive advantages. You'll read about the hair trigger military plans that each of the sides built up. You'll read a lot about that. You'll read about imperial rivalries. We talked about the imperial races, especially in the late 1800s. And clearly some of those rivalries for colonies and colonial markets and resources. That's still going on. Economic rivalry, yep sure. Especially as most of these countries are building up trade barriers. You'll see also in all the books nowadays, a significant emphasis on how insecure some of the dynastic empires were: like the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Russian Empire, and the German Empire. And you know what? All of these explanations have a fair degree of truth in them. But gosh, with so many explanations, so many true explanations, why was this a shock? In retrospect, it just seems obvious that there's going to be a huge general war. There's so many causes for it. Yeah, so then why were people surprised when it happened? They were really surprised. A good way of measuring the surprise that historian Niall Ferguson has used is he looks at the bond markets. See here's where businessmen are actually literally placing bets with their money on the stability of countries. Because the price at which their going to basically loan people money. If they think your country's about to go to war, they might charge a higher price, so to speak, in order to lend you money. Ask for a little more interest rates. So if you look the bond markets, you can get some indication of whether businessmen think instability is coming. But if you look at the bond markets in the summer of 1914, you don't see any sign that war is coming. The richest men in the world, the businessmen who are supposedly pulling the strings of all these governments, they're not expecting a war. They're not betting on a war. So, it's a shock. If the causes are so abundant, why the shock? They expected peace. So let's flip this question. Why would most well informed people expect peace in the summer of 1914, when you can look back and see so many causes for the war? Well, they expected peace, first off, because Europe had been pretty darn peaceful. It had been peaceful for a year, 5 years, 10 years, 20, 30, 40 years. There had been some wars in the Balkans, true. Back in 1870-1871, there had been a big war between France and Prussia, and so on. But general war in Europe? There had been a war between some of the powers waged in the Crimea, back in the 1850s, but a general war encompassing Europe, touching on commerce on the seas.. you had to go back to the Napoleonic Wars nearly 100 years earlier, so peace seemed like the norm. But another reason people expected peace is because peace was profitable. This was actually a period of general economic growth and a lot of economic activity. Very influential books were published saying that it was increasing inconceivable that there could even be a general war, because the condition of peace was so much in the interest of business. Did people understand that there were chronic tensions, imperial rivalries, military buildups? Sure. They all understood that. They'd had that for years, and those sorts of things were managed, that kind of tension, that rivalry, managed in a variety of different ways. For instance, when you turn on your automobile, inside your engine, there are hundreds, thousands of controlled little explosions. How come all these explosions, people setting fire to gasoline under the hood of your car, doesn�t just blow up all these automobiles all the time? Well, because we perfected over time ways of managing all of that combustion. Channeling all that combustion. And people thought: well we've learned how to manage chronic tensions in Europe. So if you look at 1914, you want to look at how they're managing chronic tensions and ask yourself: What changed? What was it about the way they always managed these tensions that suddenly is no longer working? Another kind of question you might ask yourself also comes from the old world of automotive engines. Many kinds of engines have on them a sort of governor. The purpose of the governor is to keep the engine from running too fast, for example. Sometimes in electric circuits there's a such a thing called a circuit breaker. So if the circuit gets too hot, the electricity will just cut out. In other words, people thought that something would intervene. That there would be some sort of governor that would keep war from happening. So, looking at 1914, what was the governor, so to speak, that had been there in the past, that suddenly failed? So what I'm doing is turning the question around. Instead of saying, Why was there a war?, and then you list the causes and it seems like, well then the war was bound to happen, I'm asking: Since most people expected peace, why did they turn out to be wrong in 1914? Another interesting way of looking at that question is to ask: Who was it that was not surprised when war happened in 1914? There were a few people who did kind of see it coming. They had, so to speak, inside information. But the next step in unpacking this little detective story is to examine very closely one of the principle players: the German empire. In the next presentation, we'll take a hard look at Imperial Germany. See you then.


W1.01 The Shock of 1914

When World War I began, in the first days of August 1914, the world didn't see it coming. Ko se je začela prva svetovna vojna, v prvih dneh avgusta 1914, svet tega ni videl. It was a shock. To je bil šok. For some people it was a glorious shock. Za nekatere je bil to veličasten šok. For some people it was horrifying. Za nekatere ljudi je bilo to grozljivo. It was a shock. Now historians look back on it. You open up any kind of world history textbook. Odprete kakršen koli učbenik svetovne zgodovine. And you'll see though that looking back on it, we see all sorts of explanations for World War I. There's a whole list of them. In če pogledate nazaj, boste videli vse mogoče razlage za prvo svetovno vojno. Obstaja celoten seznam njih. Usually we'll start with international rivalry. Običajno bomo začeli z mednarodnim rivalstvom. Every book will say something about the fact that Europe was divided into these two different alliances. Vsaka knjiga bo povedala nekaj o dejstvu, da je bila Evropa razdeljena na ta dva različna zavezništva. Let's take a look at the map of Europe. You see the basic structure of this. Vidite osnovno strukturo tega. The two key alliances were the Central Powers, the core members of the Central Powers these two countries: Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire; on the other side, the Entente. Dva ključna zavezništva sta bili osrednji sili, osrednji članici osrednjih sil teh dveh držav: Nemčija in Avstro-Ogrski; na drugi strani pa Antanta. And the key Entente powers were also two countries: France allied with Russia. Ključni sili Antante sta bili tudi dve državi: Francija je bila v zavezništvu z Rusijo. France and Russia had been allied against Germany and Austria-Hungary since 1894. Francija in Rusija sta bili od leta 1894 povezani z Nemčijo in Avstro-Ogrsko. Now this map, if you look at it, shows Great Britain also as part of that alliance. Zdaj, če pogledate, ta zemljevid prikazuje Veliko Britanijo tudi kot del tega zavezništva. This is actually not quite right. To pravzaprav ni čisto prav. Great Britain was not a formal member of the Entente at the beginning of the war, though it was clearly on a friendly basis with France. Velika Britanija na začetku vojne ni bila uradna članica Antante, čeprav je bila očitno na prijateljski podlagi s Francijo. If France was attacked, there was a good chance that Britain would come in, but it wasn't locked into it by formal treaty of alliance. Če bi bila Francija napadnjena, je obstajala velika verjetnost, da bo vstopila Britanija, vendar ni bila vanjo zaklenjena s formalno pogodbo o zavezništvu. After the war began, Great Britain became part of the Triple Entente. Po začetku vojne je Velika Britanija postala del Trojne antante. So the basic rivalry is France and Russia versus the aptly-named Central Powers. Osnovno rivalstvo sta torej Francija in Rusija proti primerno poimenovanim centralnim silam. Other countries would later line up on the side of one or the other. Druge države bi se kasneje postavile na stran ene ali druge. But okay, back to the different causes of World War I. I've thrown a list of the causes here on this slide. International rivalry. These two competing alliances in Europe facing each other, amassing huge armies, buying weapons and so on. Ti dve konkurenčni zvezi v Evropi se soočata, zbirata ogromno vojsko, kupujeta orožje itd. Second, you'll see a lot of references to a general atmosphere of militarism, the arms race, as each country is building up its armies and its navies looking for competitive advantages. Drugič, videli boste veliko sklicevanj na splošno vzdušje militarizma, oboroževalne tekme, saj vsaka država gradi svojo vojsko in mornarice, ki iščejo konkurenčne prednosti. You'll read about the hair trigger military plans that each of the sides built up. あなたはそれぞれの側が構築した髪の引き金の軍事計画について読むでしょう。 Prebrali boste o vojaških načrtih za sprožitev las, ki jih je zgradila vsaka stran. You'll read a lot about that. あなたはそれについてたくさん読むでしょう。 You'll read about imperial rivalries. あなたは帝国の競争について読むでしょう。 Prebrali boste o imperialnem rivalstvu. We talked about the imperial races, especially in the late 1800s. 特に1800年代後半の帝国人種について話しました。 Govorili smo o cesarskih rasah, zlasti v poznih 1800 -ih. And clearly some of those rivalries for colonies and colonial markets and resources. そして明らかに、植民地と植民地市場と資源のためのそれらの競争のいくつか。 In očitno nekaj teh rivalstev za kolonije in kolonialne trge in vire. That's still going on. それはまだ続いています。 To se še dogaja. Economic rivalry, yep sure. 経済的な競争、確かに。 Especially as most of these countries are building up trade barriers. 特にこれらの国のほとんどが貿易障壁を構築しているので。 Še posebej, ker večina teh držav ustvarja trgovinske ovire. You'll see also in all the books nowadays, a significant emphasis on how insecure some of the dynastic empires were: like the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Russian Empire, and the German Empire. 最近のすべての本にも、オーストリア・ハンガリー帝国、ロシア帝国、ドイツ帝国など、王朝帝国のいくつかがいかに不安定であったかが強調されています。 V vseh današnjih knjigah boste videli tudi pomemben poudarek na tem, kako negotovi so bili nekateri dinastični imperiji: na primer Avstro-Ogrski, Ruski in Nemški imperij. And you know what? そして、あなたは何を知っていますか? Veš kaj? All of these explanations have a fair degree of truth in them. これらの説明はすべて、かなりの程度の真実が含まれています。 Vse te razlage imajo v sebi precej resnice. But gosh, with so many explanations, so many true explanations, why was this a shock? しかし、まあ、非常に多くの説明、非常に多くの本当の説明があるのに、なぜこれはショックだったのですか? In retrospect, it just seems obvious that there's going to be a huge general war. 振り返ってみると、大規模な一般戦争が発生することは明らかです。 Če pogledamo nazaj, se zdi očitno, da bo prišlo do velike splošne vojne. There's so many causes for it. それには非常に多くの原因があります。 Yeah, so then why were people surprised when it happened? ええ、それでは、なぜ人々はそれが起こったときに驚いたのですか? They were really surprised. 彼らは本当に驚いた。 A good way of measuring the surprise that historian Niall Ferguson has used is he looks at the bond markets. 歴史家のニーアル・ファーガソンが使用した驚きを測定する良い方法は、彼が債券市場を見ることです。 Dober način merjenja presenečenja, ki ga je uporabil zgodovinar Niall Ferguson, je pogled na trge obveznic. See here's where businessmen are actually literally placing bets with their money on the stability of countries. ビジネスマンが実際に国の安定に彼らのお金で文字通り賭けをしているところをここで見てください。 Tukaj si oglejte, kje poslovneži s svojim denarjem dobesedno stavijo na stabilnost držav. Because the price at which their going to basically loan people money. 彼らが基本的に人々にお金を貸すつもりの価格だからです。 Ker je cena, po kateri bodo ljudem v bistvu posojali denar. If they think your country's about to go to war, they might charge a higher price, so to speak, in order to lend you money. 彼らがあなたの国が戦争に行くと思った場合、彼らはあなたにお金を貸すために、いわばより高い価格を請求するかもしれません。 Če mislijo, da bo vaša država v vojni, bi lahko tako rekoč zaračunali višjo ceno, da bi vam posodili denar. Ask for a little more interest rates. もう少し金利を求めます。 Prosite za malo več obrestnih mer. So if you look the bond markets, you can get some indication of whether businessmen think instability is coming. したがって、債券市場を見ると、ビジネスマンが不安定さを感じているかどうかをある程度知ることができます。 But if you look at the bond markets in the summer of 1914, you don't see any sign that war is coming. しかし、1914年夏の債券市場を見ると、戦争が起こっている兆候は見られません。 The richest men in the world, the businessmen who are supposedly pulling the strings of all these governments, they're not expecting a war. 世界で最も裕福な男性、おそらくこれらすべての政府のひもを引っ張っているビジネスマンは、戦争を期待していません。 They're not betting on a war. 彼らは戦争に賭けていません。 So, it's a shock. だから、それはショックです。 If the causes are so abundant, why the shock? 原因が非常に多いのなら、なぜショックなのか? They expected peace. 彼らは平和を期待していました。 So let's flip this question. それでは、この質問を裏返しましょう。 Why would most well informed people expect peace in the summer of 1914, when you can look back and see so many causes for the war? あなたが振り返って戦争の多くの原因を見ることができるとき、なぜ最もよく知られた人々が1914年の夏に平和を期待するのでしょうか? Well, they expected peace, first off, because Europe had been pretty darn peaceful. ええと、彼らは最初に平和を期待していました。なぜならヨーロッパはかなり平和だったからです。 No, najprej so pričakovali mir, ker je bila Evropa precej mirna. It had been peaceful for a year, 5 years, 10 years, 20, 30, 40 years. それは1年、5年、10年、20、30、40年の間平和でした。 Bilo je mirno leto, 5 let, 10 let, 20, 30, 40 let. There had been some wars in the Balkans, true. 確かに、バルカン半島ではいくつかの戦争がありました。 Back in 1870-1871, there had been a big war between France and Prussia, and so on. 1870年から1871年にかけて、フランスとプロイセンの間で大きな戦争がありました。 But general war in Europe? しかし、ヨーロッパでの一般的な戦争? There had been a war between some of the powers waged in the Crimea, back in the 1850s, but a general war encompassing Europe, touching on commerce on the seas.. you had to go back to the Napoleonic Wars nearly 100 years earlier, so peace seemed like the norm. 1850年代にクリミアで行われたいくつかの勢力の間で戦争がありましたが、ヨーロッパを含む一般的な戦争は海での商取引に触れていました。100年近く前にナポレオン戦争に戻らなければならなかったので。平和は当たり前のようでした。 Že v petdesetih letih prejšnjega stoletja je na Krimu potekala vojna med nekaterimi silami, toda splošna vojna, ki je zajela Evropo in se je dotaknila trgovine na morjih ... skoraj 100 let prej ste se morali vrniti v Napoleonove vojne mir se je zdel norma. But another reason people expected peace is because peace was profitable. しかし、人々が平和を期待したもう一つの理由は、平和が有益だったからです。 This was actually a period of general economic growth and a lot of economic activity. これは実際には一般的な経済成長と多くの経済活動の期間でした。 Very influential books were published saying that it was increasing inconceivable that there could even be a general war, because the condition of peace was so much in the interest of business. 非常に影響力のある本が出版され、平和の条件はビジネスの利益のために非常に重要であったため、一般的な戦争さえ起こり得るとは考えられなくなったと述べています。 Objavljene so bile zelo vplivne knjige, ki pravijo, da je čedalje bolj nepredstavljivo, da bi sploh lahko prišlo do splošne vojne, ker je bil pogoj miru tako v interesu podjetja. Did people understand that there were chronic tensions, imperial rivalries, military buildups? Ali so ljudje razumeli, da obstajajo kronične napetosti, imperialno rivalstvo, kopičenje vojske? Sure. They all understood that. They'd had that for years, and those sorts of things were managed, that kind of tension, that rivalry, managed in a variety of different ways. To so imeli že leta in takšne stvari so bile obvladovane, takšna napetost, to rivalstvo, upravljano na različne načine. For instance, when you turn on your automobile, inside your engine, there are hundreds, thousands of controlled little explosions. Na primer, ko vklopite avtomobil, se v vašem motorju pojavi na stotine, tisoče nadzorovanih majhnih eksplozij. How come all these explosions, people setting fire to gasoline under the hood of your car, doesn�t just blow up all these automobiles all the time? Kako to, da vse te eksplozije, ljudje, ki zažgejo bencin pod pokrovom vašega avtomobila, ne vseskozi samo razstrelijo vseh teh avtomobilov? Well, because we perfected over time ways of managing all of that combustion. No, ker smo sčasoma izpopolnili načine upravljanja z vsem tem zgorevanjem. Channeling all that combustion. Usmerja vse to zgorevanje. And people thought: well we've learned how to manage chronic tensions in Europe. So if you look at 1914, you want to look at how they're managing chronic tensions and ask yourself: What changed? Če torej pogledate leto 1914, si želite ogledati, kako obvladujejo kronične napetosti, in se vprašati: Kaj se je spremenilo? What was it about the way they always managed these tensions that suddenly is no longer working? Kaj je bilo z načinom, kako so vedno obvladovali te napetosti, ki nenadoma ne delujejo več? Another kind of question you might ask yourself also comes from the old world of automotive engines. Druga vrsta vprašanja, ki bi si ga lahko zastavili, prihaja tudi iz starega sveta avtomobilskih motorjev. Many kinds of engines have on them a sort of governor. Mnoge vrste motorjev imajo na sebi nekakšen guverner. The purpose of the governor is to keep the engine from running too fast, for example. Sometimes in electric circuits there's a such a thing called a circuit breaker. Včasih je v električnih tokokrogih tako imenovano odklopnik. So if the circuit gets too hot, the electricity will just cut out. Torej, če se vezje preveč segreje, bo elektrika preprosto izpadla. In other words, people thought that something would intervene. That there would be some sort of governor that would keep war from happening. So, looking at 1914, what was the governor, so to speak, that had been there in the past, that suddenly failed? Torej, če pogledamo leto 1914, kaj je bil guverner, tako rekoč, ki je bil tam v preteklosti, kar je nenadoma propadel? So what I'm doing is turning the question around. Torej to, kar počnem, je obrniti vprašanje. Instead of saying, Why was there a war?, and then you list the causes and it seems like, well then the war was bound to happen, I'm asking: Since most people expected peace, why did they turn out to be wrong in 1914? Namesto da bi rekel "Zakaj je bila vojna?", Potem naštejete vzroke in zdi se, da se je potem vojna zagotovo zgodila, sprašujem: Ker je večina ljudi pričakovala mir, zakaj so se izkazali za narobe? leta 1914? Another interesting way of looking at that question is to ask: Who was it that was not surprised when war happened in 1914? There were a few people who did kind of see it coming. Bilo je nekaj ljudi, ki so to videli. They had, so to speak, inside information. But the next step in unpacking this little detective story is to examine very closely one of the principle players: the German empire. Naslednji korak pri razpakiranju te male detektivske zgodbe je natančno preučiti enega od glavnih igralcev: nemški imperij. In the next presentation, we'll take a hard look at Imperial Germany. See you then.