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Voice of America, A Look at Japan's New Prime Minister

A Look at Japan's New Prime Minister

Since the end of World War II, Japan has been a different country than the one that conquered the rest of East Asia. The nation replaced militaristic imperialism with capitalism and became the world's second-strongest economy.

But some Japanese remain proud of their country's history. While such opinions were largely kept quiet for years after the 1945 surrender, they are far more out in the open today. And there are political figures in Japan who do not discourage such thinking.

One of them, say analysts, is the new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who also leads Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party. He replaces Junichiro Koizumi, who held the post since 2001.

Mark Fitzpatrick is with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. He says Mr. Abe represents the transition Japan has undergone in recent years. "He is Japan's first post-war generation leader. He is described as a nationalist. He wants to continue the process of making Japan a normal country, to put World War II behind. It has been over 60 years now." Fitzpatrick and other analysts say that Japanese born after the war do not view their country's past in the same way as their elders. They say Shinzo Abe reflects and taps into these attitudes with his nationalistic rhetoric and announced plans for assertive foreign policies.

Adam Segal at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York says that to a growing number of Japanese, it is time to stop apologizing for what happened more than a half-century ago.

"There is a sentiment that is now trying to affect the history books and museums and other displays of history to promote an interpretation of World War II as an anti-colonial war. And [that] Japan was trying to free the rest of Asia from Western domination. Or [it was] a normal pursuit of resources [such as oil] that any country would have to engage in," says Segal. But this revisionist perspective in Japan is unsettling to people in other East Asian nations that were once subjugated by Tokyo. Japan's former Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, prompted outcries from China and South Korea by making visits to the Yasukuni war shrine, which to many people in East Asia symbolizes Japan's past colonialism and aggression.

Jamie Metzl, Vice President of Asia Society in New York, says Mr. Abe has to carefully weigh the impact of being seen at Yasukuni and other displays of Japanese nationalism.

"It's a cost-benefit analysis that he is going to have to make," says Metzl. "Will he gain more by the domestic support from the right that he will get from making these visits than he will from those who believe that Japan needs better relationships with [South] Korea and, more importantly, China to make its economy grow?" Some analysts, including Don Oberdorfer at The Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, express confidence that the new prime minister will be constructive in how he engages Japan's neighbors.

"[Mr.] Abe is smart enough to try to operate in a way that does not disadvantage Japan. The odds are that he will be more maneuverable [than his predecessor Junichiro Koizumi]. It's not in their [i.e., Japan's] interest to have others in Northeastern Asia fearful of a Japan that they think has gone off the deep end as a nationalistic country," says Oberdorfer. Prime Minister Abe has caught the attention of Japan's neighbors with his support for changing his country's constitution to allow the military to move beyond its post-war "self-defense only" restrictions. That transition started under former Prime Minister Koizumi, who sent Japanese troops to Iraq as part of the U.S.-led coalition there.

The new prime minister has also attracted attention with his hard-line stance toward North Korea's quest for missiles and nuclear weapons. Many analysts say the recent test of a North Korean missile heightened Japanese concerns about Pyongyang's ambitions and, as a result, bolstered arguments for a stronger military.

But Mark Fitzpatrick at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London says that while Mr. Abe's stance may appeal to the West, it also creates problems for other East Asian nations hoping to curb Pyongyang.

"There is concern that the divergence among the six-party talks partners is going to widen with Mr. Abe. That is to say, the United States and Japan will be increasingly hard-nosed about North Korea, [and] will be applying sanctions. And [this] will make it harder for South Korea and China, who want to engage and reform North Korea through trade and investment," says Fitzpatrick. Along with expanding the role of Japan's military, Jamie Metzl at Asia House says Pyongyang's desire for nuclear weapons may cause Tokyo to re-examine one of its strongest post-war taboos.

"There's going to be a lot of pressure on [Mr.] Abe to consider, at some point, developing a nuclear capability for 'balance of power' issues. Certainly, it's [North Korea's ambitions] pushing Japan to the right. And [Mr.] Abe is going to have to be very thoughtful and strategic in responding to it," says Metzl. While Shinzo Abe has a number of defense issues to address, many analysts say his most important task is stimulating Japan's economy, which fell into a deep slump during the 1990s. The task is more difficult because Japan now has competition for oil and other resources from China. And labor costs in South Korea and elsewhere in East Asia are lower than in Japan, enabling those countries to be more competitive. But most analysts expect Shinzo Abe to push for economic reforms and take other steps to help Japan thrive in a tough trade environment.


A Look at Japan's New Prime Minister

Since the end of World War II, Japan has been a different country than the one that conquered the rest of East Asia. Depuis la fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale, le Japon est un pays différent de celui qui a conquis le reste de l'Asie de l'Est. Со времени окончания Второй мировой войны Япония была другой страной, чем страна, завоевавшая остальную часть Восточной Азии. The nation replaced militaristic imperialism with capitalism and became the world’s second-strongest economy. 国は軍国主義の帝国主義を資本主義に置き換え、世界で2番目に強い経済になりました。

But some Japanese remain proud of their country’s history. しかし、一部の日本人は自国の歴史を誇りに思っています。 While such opinions were largely kept quiet for years after the 1945 surrender, they are far more out in the open today. Bien que ces opinions aient été en grande partie passées sous silence pendant des années après la capitulation de 1945, elles sont beaucoup plus ouvertes aujourd'hui. そのような意見は、1945年の降伏後、何年もの間ほとんど静かに保たれていましたが、今日でははるかに公開されています。 Хотя такие мнения в течение многих лет после капитуляции 1945 года были в основном спокойными, сегодня они намного более открыты. 虽然这些意见在 1945 年投降后多年来基本上保持沉默,但今天它们公开得多。 And there are political figures in Japan who do not discourage such thinking. そして、そのような考えを思いとどまらせない政治家が日本にいます。 И в Японии есть политические фигуры, которые не препятствуют такому мышлению. 日本的一些政治人物并不反对这种想法。

One of them, say analysts, is the new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who also leads Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party. L'un d'eux, selon les analystes, est le nouveau Premier ministre, Shinzo Abe, qui dirige également le Parti libéral démocrate au pouvoir au Japon. 分析人士说,其中之一是新任首相安倍晋三,他也是日本执政的自民党的领导人。 He replaces Junichiro Koizumi, who held the post since 2001. 2001年から就任した小泉純一郎の後任。 他接替了自 2001 年以来担任该职位的小泉纯一郎。

Mark Fitzpatrick is with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Марк Фицпатрик работает с Международным институтом стратегических исследований в Лондоне. Mark Fitzpatrick 在伦敦国际战略研究所工作。 He says Mr. Abe represents the transition Japan has undergone in recent years. 安倍首相は、日本が近年経験した移行を代表していると彼は言う。 Он говорит, что г-н Абэ представляет собой переход, который Япония претерпела в последние годы. 他说,安倍代表了日本近年来经历的转变。 "He is Japan’s first post-war generation leader. 「彼は日本で最初の戦後世代のリーダーです。 He is described as a nationalist. 彼は民族主義者として描写されています。 He wants to continue the process of making Japan a normal country, to put World War II behind. Il veut continuer le processus de faire du Japon un pays normal, mettre la Seconde Guerre mondiale derrière. 彼は、第二次世界大戦を後回しにするために、日本を普通の国にするプロセスを続けたいと思っています。 It has been over 60 years now." Fitzpatrick and other analysts say that Japanese born after the war do not view their country’s past in the same way as their elders. フィッツパトリックや他のアナリストは、戦後に生まれた日本人は、自分たちの国の過去を長老たちと同じように見ているわけではないと言います。 They say Shinzo Abe reflects and taps into these attitudes with his nationalistic rhetoric and announced plans for assertive foreign policies. Ils disent que Shinzo Abe reflète et exploite ces attitudes avec sa rhétorique nationaliste et ses plans annoncés pour une politique étrangère affirmée. 彼らは、安倍晋三が彼の民族主義的なレトリックでこれらの態度を反映し、利用し、断定的な外交政策の計画を発表したと言います。 Они говорят, что Синдзо Абэ отражает и вступает в эти отношения с его националистической риторикой и объявляет о планах настойчивой внешней политики. 他们说,安倍晋三通过他的民族主义言论反映并利用了这些态度,并宣布了强硬的外交政策计划。

Adam Segal at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York says that to a growing number of Japanese, it is time to stop apologizing for what happened more than a half-century ago.

"There is a sentiment that is now trying to affect the history books and museums and other displays of history to promote an interpretation of World War II as an anti-colonial war. "Il y a un sentiment qui essaie maintenant d'affecter les livres d'histoire et les musées et autres expositions d'histoire pour promouvoir une interprétation de la Seconde Guerre mondiale comme une guerre anticoloniale. 「現在、第二次世界大戦を反植民地戦争として解釈することを促進するために、歴史書や博物館、その他の歴史の展示に影響を与えようとしている感情があります。 “现在有一种情绪正试图影响历史书籍和博物馆以及其他历史展示,以促进将第二次世界大战解释为反殖民战争。 And [that] Japan was trying to free the rest of Asia from Western domination. Et [que] le Japon essayait de libérer le reste de l'Asie de la domination occidentale. そして、日本はアジアの他の地域を西洋の支配から解放しようとしていました。 [那]日本正试图将亚洲其他地区从西方的统治下解放出来。 Or [it was] a normal pursuit of resources [such as oil] that any country would have to engage in," says Segal. Ou [c'était] une recherche normale de ressources [telles que le pétrole] dans laquelle n'importe quel pays devrait s'engager », explique Segal. あるいは、どの国も関与しなければならない[石油などの]資源の通常の追求でした」とSegal氏は述べています。 Или [это было] обычное стремление к ресурсам [таким как нефть], к которым должна была бы прибегнуть любая страна », - говорит Сигал. 或者 [这是] 任何国家都必须参与的对资源 [例如石油] 的正常追求,”西格尔说。 But this revisionist perspective in Japan is unsettling to people in other East Asian nations that were once subjugated by Tokyo. Mais cette perspective révisionniste au Japon dérange les habitants d'autres pays d'Asie de l'Est qui étaient autrefois subjugués par Tokyo. しかし、この日本における修正主義的見方は、かつて東京に征服された他の東アジア諸国の人々を不安にさせている。 Но эта ревизионистская перспектива в Японии вызывает тревогу у людей в других восточноазиатских странах, которые когда-то были подчинены Токио. 但日本的这种修正主义观点令曾经受制于东京的其他东亚国家的人民感到不安。 Japan’s former Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, prompted outcries from China and South Korea by making visits to the Yasukuni war shrine, which to many people in East Asia symbolizes Japan’s past colonialism and aggression. L'ancien Premier ministre japonais, Junichiro Koizumi, a provoqué des tollés en provenance de Chine et de Corée du Sud en visitant le sanctuaire de guerre de Yasukuni, qui pour de nombreuses personnes en Asie de l'Est symbolise le colonialisme et l'agression passés du Japon. 日本の前首相である小泉純一郎は、東アジアの多くの人々にとって日本の過去の植民地主義と侵略を象徴する安国戦争神社を訪問することにより、中国と韓国からの抗議を促した。 Бывший премьер-министр Японии Дзюнъитиро Коидзуми вызвал крики из Китая и Южной Кореи, посетив военную святыню Ясукуни, которая для многих людей в Восточной Азии символизирует прошлый колониализм и агрессию Японии. 日本前首相小泉纯一郎参拜靖国神社引起了中国和韩国的强烈抗议,对东亚许多人来说,靖国神社象征着日本过去的殖民主义和侵略。

Jamie Metzl, Vice President of Asia Society in New York, says Mr. Abe has to carefully weigh the impact of being seen at Yasukuni and other displays of Japanese nationalism. Jamie Metzl, vice-président de l'Asia Society à New York, dit que M. Abe doit peser soigneusement l'impact d'être vu à Yasukuni et d'autres manifestations du nationalisme japonais. Джейми Мецль, вице-президент Азиатского общества в Нью-Йорке, говорит, что г-н Абэ должен тщательно взвесить влияние того, что его видели в Ясукуни и других проявлениях японского национализма.

"It’s a cost-benefit analysis that he is going to have to make," says Metzl. "C'est une analyse coûts-avantages qu'il va devoir faire", explique Metzl. “这是他必须进行的成本效益分析,”梅茨尔说。 "Will he gain more by the domestic support from the right that he will get from making these visits than he will from those who believe that Japan needs better relationships with [South] Korea and, more importantly, China to make its economy grow?" "Gagnera-t-il plus du soutien interne de la droite qu'il obtiendra en effectuant ces visites que de ceux qui pensent que le Japon a besoin de meilleures relations avec la Corée [du Sud] et, plus important encore, la Chine pour faire croître son économie?" 「彼は、日本が経済を成長させるために韓国、そしてさらに重要なことに中国とのより良い関係を必要としていると信じる人々からよりも、これらの訪問を行うことから得られる権利からの国内支援によってより多くを得るだろうか?」 “与那些认为日本需要与[韩国],更重要的是与中国建立更好的关系以促进经济增长的人相比,他从这些访问中获得的国内支持是否会更多?” Some analysts, including Don Oberdorfer at The Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, express confidence that the new prime minister will be constructive in how he engages Japan’s neighbors. Certains analystes, dont Don Oberdorfer de la School of Advanced International Studies de l'Université Johns Hopkins à Washington, expriment leur confiance dans le fait que le nouveau Premier ministre sera constructif dans la manière dont il engagera les voisins du Japon. ジョンズホプキンス大学ワシントン高等国際研究大学院のドン・オーバードーファーを含む一部のアナリストは、新首相が日本の隣人との関わり方について建設的になると確信している。 一些分析人士,包括华盛顿约翰霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院的 Don Oberdorfer,表示相信新首相将在与日本邻国的交往中发挥建设性作用。

"[Mr.] Abe is smart enough to try to operate in a way that does not disadvantage Japan. 「(氏)安倍首相は、日本に不利益をもたらさない方法で運営しようとするほど賢い。 «[Г-н] Эйб достаточно умен, чтобы попытаться действовать таким образом, чтобы это не ущемляло Японию. The odds are that he will be more maneuverable [than his predecessor Junichiro Koizumi]. Il y a de fortes chances qu'il soit plus maniable [que son prédécesseur Junichiro Koizumi]. 彼は[前任者の小泉純一郎よりも]機動性が高い可能性があります。 Скорее всего, он будет более маневренным [чем его предшественник Дзюнъитиро Коидзуми]. It’s not in their [i.e., Japan’s] interest to have others in Northeastern Asia fearful of a Japan that they think has gone off the deep end as a nationalistic country," says Oberdorfer. Ce n'est pas dans leur intérêt [c'est-à-dire le Japon] que d'autres en Asie du Nord-Est aient peur d'un Japon qui, selon eux, est devenu un pays nationaliste », déclare Oberdorfer. 北東アジアの他の人々に、ナショナリズムの国としての深遠さを脱したと彼らが考える日本を恐れさせることは、彼らの(すなわち、日本の)利益ではない」とオーバードルファーは言う。 Не в интересах их [т. Е. Японии], чтобы другие в Северо-Восточной Азии опасались Японии, которая, по их мнению, ушла с глубокого конца как националистическая страна », - говорит Обердорфер. Prime Minister Abe has caught the attention of Japan’s neighbors with his support for changing his country’s constitution to allow the military to move beyond its post-war "self-defense only" restrictions. 安倍首相は、戦後の「自衛のみ」の制限を超えて軍隊が動くことを可能にするために自国の憲法を変更することへの支持で、日本の隣人の注目を集めました。 Премьер-министр Абэ привлек внимание соседей Японии с его поддержкой в ​​изменении конституции своей страны, чтобы позволить военным выйти за пределы послевоенных ограничений «самообороны». 安倍首相支持修改日本宪法,允许军队超越战后“仅限自卫”的限制,这引起了日本邻国的注意。 That transition started under former Prime Minister Koizumi, who sent Japanese troops to Iraq as part of the U.S.-led coalition there. Этот переход начался при бывшем премьер-министре Коидзуми, который отправил японские войска в Ирак в составе возглавляемой США коалиции. 这一转变始于前首相小泉,作为美国领导的联盟的一部分,他将日本军队派往伊拉克。

The new prime minister has also attracted attention with his hard-line stance toward North Korea’s quest for missiles and nuclear weapons. 新首相も北朝鮮のミサイルや核兵器の探求に対する強硬姿勢で注目を集めている。 Новый премьер-министр также привлек внимание своей жесткой позицией к поиску Северной Кореи ракет и ядерного оружия. Many analysts say the recent test of a North Korean missile heightened Japanese concerns about Pyongyang’s ambitions and, as a result, bolstered arguments for a stronger military. 许多分析人士说,最近朝鲜导弹试射加剧了日本对平壤野心的担忧,因此加强了加强军事力量的论据。

But Mark Fitzpatrick at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London says that while Mr. Abe’s stance may appeal to the West, it also creates problems for other East Asian nations hoping to curb Pyongyang. Mais Mark Fitzpatrick de l'Institut international d'études stratégiques de Londres affirme que si la position de M. Abe peut plaire à l'Occident, elle crée également des problèmes pour d'autres pays d'Asie de l'Est qui espèrent freiner Pyongyang. しかし、ロンドンの国際戦略研究所のマーク・フィッツパトリック氏は、安倍首相の立場は西側に訴えるかもしれないが、それはまた、平壌を抑制しようとしている他の東アジア諸国にとっても問題を引き起こすと述べている。 Но Марк Фицпатрик из Международного института стратегических исследований в Лондоне говорит, что, хотя позиция г-на Абэ может понравиться Западу, это также создает проблемы для других восточноазиатских стран, надеющихся обуздать Пхеньян. 但伦敦国际战略研究所的马克菲茨帕特里克表示,尽管安倍的立场可能会吸引西方,但它也会给其他希望遏制平壤的东亚国家带来问题。

"There is concern that the divergence among the six-party talks partners is going to widen with Mr. Abe. "On craint que la divergence entre les partenaires des pourparlers à six ne s'élargisse avec M. Abe. «Существует опасение, что расхождение между партнерами по шестисторонним переговорам будет расширяться вместе с г-ном Абэ. “有人担心六方会谈伙伴之间的分歧会随着安倍先生而扩大。 That is to say, the United States and Japan will be increasingly hard-nosed about North Korea, [and] will be applying sanctions. つまり、日米は北朝鮮に対してますます厳しくなり、制裁を適用することになるでしょう。 То есть, Соединенные Штаты и Япония будут все более жестко заявлять о Северной Корее, [и] будут применять санкции. 也就是说,美国和日本对朝鲜的态度会越来越强硬,[并且]会实施制裁。 And [this] will make it harder for South Korea and China, who want to engage and reform North Korea through trade and investment," says Fitzpatrick. Et [cela] rendra la tâche plus difficile pour la Corée du Sud et la Chine, qui veulent s'engager et réformer la Corée du Nord par le commerce et l'investissement », a déclaré Fitzpatrick. [这]将使希望通过贸易和投资与朝鲜接触和改革朝鲜的韩国和中国更加困难,”菲茨帕特里克说。 Along with expanding the role of Japan’s military, Jamie Metzl at Asia House says Pyongyang’s desire for nuclear weapons may cause Tokyo to re-examine one of its strongest post-war taboos. Parallèlement à l'élargissement du rôle de l'armée japonaise, Jamie Metzl d'Asia House a déclaré que le désir de Pyongyang d'acquérir des armes nucléaires pourrait amener Tokyo à réexaminer l'un de ses plus grands tabous d'après-guerre. 随着日本军队作用的扩大,亚洲之家的杰米·梅茨尔表示,平壤对核武器的渴望可能会促使东京重新审视其最强烈的战后禁忌之一。

"There’s going to be a lot of pressure on [Mr.] Abe to consider, at some point, developing a nuclear capability for 'balance of power' issues. “[先生] 安倍将面临很大压力,要考虑在某个时候为‘力量平衡’问题发展核能力。 Certainly, it’s [North Korea’s ambitions] pushing Japan to the right. Конечно, это [стремления Северной Кореи] подталкивать Японию вправо. 当然,这是 [朝鲜的野心] 将日本推向右翼。 And [Mr.] Abe is going to have to be very thoughtful and strategic in responding to it," says Metzl. 安倍 [先生] 必须非常周到和有策略地回应它,”Metzl 说。 While Shinzo Abe has a number of defense issues to address, many analysts say his most important task is stimulating Japan’s economy, which fell into a deep slump during the 1990s. В то время как Синдзо Абэ имеет ряд вопросов защиты для решения, многие аналитики говорят, что его самая важная задача - стимулировать экономику Японии, которая в 1990-е годы упала до глубокого спада. The task is more difficult because Japan now has competition for oil and other resources from China. 这项任务更加艰巨,因为日本现在要与中国争夺石油和其他资源。 And labor costs in South Korea and elsewhere in East Asia are lower than in Japan, enabling those countries to be more competitive. 韩国和东亚其他地方的劳动力成本低于日本,使这些国家更具竞争力。 But most analysts expect Shinzo Abe to push for economic reforms and take other steps to help Japan thrive in a tough trade environment. Mais la plupart des analystes s'attendent à ce que Shinzo Abe fasse pression pour des réformes économiques et prenne d'autres mesures pour aider le Japon à prospérer dans un environnement commercial difficile. 但大多数分析师预计安倍晋三将推动经济改革,并采取其他措施帮助日本在艰难的贸易环境中蓬勃发展。