Edwin,
Russia signed an agreement to guarantee the integrity of Ukraine. Putin said on March 4 that he would not take Crimea. He also said that the armed soldiers with no identifying symbols were not Russian soldiers. Then he took Crimea. Then on April 17 he admitted that these soldiers were Russian and were very competent and professional.
He has stated that he was the right to intervene militarily to protect ethnic Russians. He made a point stating on April 17 that Nova Rossiya (Southeastern Ukraine) was historically a part of Russia. (Maybe it was, but if we go back in history there are a lot of parts of Russia that were part of other countries, in the South and East of the country). There are many shrill nationalist voices in Russia today, from Zhirinovksy to Dugin, and there is nostalgia for the good old power days of the Soviet Union. Putin both encourages these voices and is influenced by them.
So, in my view, countries of the ex-Soviet Union and ex-Comintern group have reason to be uneasy.
As for the tragic events in Odessa, sdom, here is what I wrote to Evgueny with regard to the lesson he wrote on this subject for our library.
"The deaths in Odessa are truly tragic. Undoubtedly there will be speculation as to who started things and who caused the fire in the Trade Union Building. I think we should be careful about jumping to conclusions and limit ourselves to feeling sympathy for the dead, injured and their families.
The Ukrainian police have reported that the fire in the Trade Union Building was started by Molotov cocktails that were thrown from the roof of the building by pro-Russian demonstrators, who were also firing weapons down on the crowd below, and some of these incendiary devices accidentally landed inside the building through windows. The local police also report that a majority of the 172 people detained are citizens of Russia and Transnistria. I guess they will have to provide evidence of this. In the present state of information warfare it is difficult to accept anything at face value.
In any case, the information contained in your article Evgueny, similar to the information that I have seen in Russian news media, is not supported by video evidence that I have seen. It is clear that there were a number of pro-Russians firing pistols and machine guns into the pro-Ukrainian crowd, with the police just standing by. This was long before the fire started at the Trade Union Building.
So it is not possible to say who started things, nor to blame anything on Right Sector, or anybody else. We just need to wait to get all the information. It is also a good idea not to stir up emotions more than they already are stirred up."
BTW, on the subject of the Crimean referendum , the following is from a Russian government web page,
http://www.president-sovet.ru/structure/gruppa_po_migratsionnoy_politike/materialy/problemy_zhiteley_kryma.php
Референдум
По мнению практически всех опрошенных специалистов и граждан:
- подавляющее большинство жителей Севастополя проголосовали на референдуме за присоединение к России (явка 50-80 %), в Крыму по разным данным за присоединение к России проголосовали 50-60 % избирателей при общей явке в 30-50 %;
i.e. “in Crimea 50-60% voted in favour of joining Russia and the voter turnout was 30-50%”
- жители Крыма голосовали не столько за присоединение к России, сколько за прекращение, по их словам, «коррупционного беспредела и воровского засилья донецких ставленников». Жители же Севастополя голосовали именно за присоединение к России. Опасения перед незаконными вооруженными формированиями в Севастополе были больше, чем в других районах Крыма.